$2/$5 NL Seneca Niagara - Can I ever fold here?

Card Dead

This hand occurs around 2am, after my table broke and we got moved to this one. Stacks are good sized but not huge - 1K avg. I'm at $1200-ish and Villain has around $800 to start the hand.

I've been playing a solid game all night, which matters less as I'd been at the table less than an hour when this hand occurs. I had played at the feeder table with V early on in the evening for about half an hour before I moved to one of the main tables. He was very LAG, and I saw him get stacked twice in that short time, so I was surprised to see him at $800. Since being at this table, it did appear that he was playing less TAG than before.

The Hand:

I'm on the button with JJ, 4 ppl limp and I make it $35. The BB calls and V calls from CO+1 (2 to my right).

FLOP: 7d, 4c, Jd (presto!)

Both players check to me so I bet $45. BB calls and V makes it $145. I tank to think it through and decide to flat call. BB folds.

TURN: Kd (ugh!)

V checks so I bet $180, and he calls.

RIVER: 6s

V shoves $410.

Considering how badly I played this hand, can I ever fold here?


I will post my thought process after people have weighed in with critique and analysis.

JimmyHo

flop bet of $45 is terrible; why not re-pop it when he raises into you on the flop and you have the effective nuts at that point?? Especially with the flush draw out there.

V may have a small flush and he just calls on the turn as he wants to see if he may get counterfeited if another diamond comes on the river. Lot of players like to raise their draws. I assumed you called and lost.

BlondeFish

What are the pot sizes at the start of the flop, turn & river?

getem76

I agree with JAH, at seneca for sure this is a flop shove!! If you get called and lose so be it, you will be chased down with almost anything if you don't way over bet it.

Your best chance right now is he's an idiot and has the AK off suit with ace of diamonds.

Card Dead

BlondeFish wrote: »

What are the pot sizes at the start of the flop, turn & river?

The sums of all the bets described in the OP.

holychow

Based on the hand I doubt he's got AdKx. He's more likely to have 6d5d in this scenario. Most LAG players would raise any pair, ace and suited/connected cards behind a bunch of limpers, but not always. Since V flatted twice, I don't put him on a baby pair or big ace so suited/connected cards seem much more likely. He definitely doesn't have AdQd since I'd expect a LAG to raise that in late position, and definitely not flat it twice.

The action on the flop suggests he connected to the board, likely a flush (with possible straight) outs. That would be a great board for 6d5d, but V could also have hands like Td9d, Td9d, Td8d or 6d3d. Your c-bet was about half the pot and I'd have bet closer to 2/3 since it was a draw heavy board, but it wasn't too bad. Not shoving to the check-raise is what you did wrong. Flatting the check-raise on the flop pretty much forces you to play it through. The Kd was a very ugly card and the fact that V (who is very LAG) flatted your bet on the turn is very suspicious. My gears start turning as soon a player changes their playing style.

I'm guessing V did a stop-and-go on you after making the flush on the turn. The pot is giving you better then 2:1 on the river and it's hard to fold. Most players make this crying call since you only have to be right 50% of the time. He's either completed his hand or you've got him crushed. The way it played out, I'm thinking he was looking for value on the river and trying to make the shove look like a bluff to entice you into calling.

I think you made the call and lost.

getem76

chow would be right at most games, seneca they do ALOT of weak show down value.

holychow

I know they show down weak there. V either made a hand or missed a draw, but my gut tells me he hit.

You saying he had AdKx makes sense on the turn, but the flop play doesn't fit that holding. I'd be very surprised if that was right.

LAG players aren't dumb, just very aggressive. They still put players on hand ranges (and only work LAG players over value their own) and look to make plays.

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trigs

imho, flop bet is too low. villain raises and i break my wrist 3betting.

as played, on turn villain checks. i think i'm checking behind here especially against a lag as even if he missed he may be looking to c/r. what hands are you beating that are calling your turn bet? not many. i'm not really worrying about a fourth diamond or the straight. check and re-evaluate on the river.

on river villain shoves. i puke/fold and hate myself for putting myself in this position.

Milo

The only thing I could think of was already mentioned . . . I would have bet 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot on that flop.

holychow

Milo was almost speechless?

:O

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Milo

I know my limits when it comes to strat posts.

holychow

Enough said. Let's get back to kopi luwak chatter. That's more your speed.

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Milo

Says the guy who's screen name is one of the WORST Chinese food places EVER. Besides, I don't drink coffee . . . especially coffee that has been through a monkey's digestive tract. Now, a nice Russian Caravan tea would be nice. Off to the kitchen . . .

pkrfce9

you really have to factor in the exchange rate, withholding taxes, gasoline surcharges and tips before you snap call

JimmyHo

If it makes you feel any better, I likely call. If he has the flush, well played. If he hit the straight, I would get down on the floor and bow to a poker God before me.