Hands from the CPT
I have two hands near the end of my play at the tourney and wanted to get your feedback on them. I'll try to provide as much information as possible in relation to me, the blinds size and average chips.
These two hands happened when we were at 1000/2000 blinds. Down to final three tables from a start of 8 tables.
I've been very consious of my table image through all this, and essentially my cards have been seen a total of three times. Those were a raise with TT and a raise with KK. Otherwise if i've riased or limped or anything else my cards haven't been seen.
One exception is when i put a little extra in my BB, to call a short stack who went all-in on me, i had Q3o but essentilly is was seen as a simple pot odds call, for next to nothing and people even commented on it.
Hand 1
Me in the BB with 15,000 chips before posting blind
Short stack (UTG +2) , who seems to defend his blinds to much, otherwise relatively decent starting requirements goes all-in with his last 5000 chips.
Folded to me in the BB, so before i look at my cards.
His 5000 bet, SB 1000, my BB 2000 = 8000 in the pot
Cost to call 3000
Total pot if i call 11,000
I look at my hand and see 95o ... I now start trying to go through a range of hands that he may have gone all-in with. He is really short stacked and the blinds are approaching quickly. My read on this guy is that he likely wouldn't play small pairs from early position, but with an all-in it may be possible. So really any pair (half of which i'm dog to, and half to which i'm a HUGE dog to) ... i also consider any two paint cards to be a possibility. Assuming he's not playing J9 or something, i figure to have two live cards against any big cards.
I tried to figure it all out and it took me some time. To consider the impact of losing an additional 3000 would have on. I was short stacked even at 15,000 but i had room to manouver still, i could make a standard raise and still get away from a hand, but down to 10,000 most of those options disappear. Now the benfit of adding 8,000 to my stack was also significant. I would be at or above average stack and would be able to go after blinds more agressively.
In the end i called and he had AQo which was essentially my best case scenario, not counting a complete bluff or a pair under 5s ... neither of which i was expecting. So was my call something that was automatic in this spot, or do you think i could or should have passed on it. i did lose the hand if it matters.
Hand 2 (blinds @ 1000/2000)
Almost an entire orbit later i find myself UTG + 2 with 9000 in chips after having lost my BB pot and not defending my SB to a raise.
Also next hand the blinds will be going up the next hand to 1500/3000 so by the time the blinds get to me the SB and BB would consume 50% of my stack.
I see K6 suited in spades, and try to cash in on my tight image (only shown down top premium stuff and went all-in a few hands before with KK ... no slow play etc...)
To make a long story short everyone folds to the BB who calls me with measly Aces.
Two other players were put to the test by my all-in with one (who i think i'll trust, claimed to lay down JJ to my all-in). In my mind it was likely that nothing but AA, KK and QQ maybe not even JJ or AK could call me.
Do you like the move in that spot, with the blinds where they were at or would waiting even till the blinds have been more prudent. I just think near the end i would prefer to be raising rather than calling, and likely by the blinds i would be calling, thus elimiating the possibility of others folding.
btw the flop J77 (with two spades), giving me a flush draw
7 on the turn to leave me drawing dead with him making a boat
K on the river so at least i can say i went down with the boat
These two hands happened when we were at 1000/2000 blinds. Down to final three tables from a start of 8 tables.
I've been very consious of my table image through all this, and essentially my cards have been seen a total of three times. Those were a raise with TT and a raise with KK. Otherwise if i've riased or limped or anything else my cards haven't been seen.
One exception is when i put a little extra in my BB, to call a short stack who went all-in on me, i had Q3o but essentilly is was seen as a simple pot odds call, for next to nothing and people even commented on it.
Hand 1
Me in the BB with 15,000 chips before posting blind
Short stack (UTG +2) , who seems to defend his blinds to much, otherwise relatively decent starting requirements goes all-in with his last 5000 chips.
Folded to me in the BB, so before i look at my cards.
His 5000 bet, SB 1000, my BB 2000 = 8000 in the pot
Cost to call 3000
Total pot if i call 11,000
I look at my hand and see 95o ... I now start trying to go through a range of hands that he may have gone all-in with. He is really short stacked and the blinds are approaching quickly. My read on this guy is that he likely wouldn't play small pairs from early position, but with an all-in it may be possible. So really any pair (half of which i'm dog to, and half to which i'm a HUGE dog to) ... i also consider any two paint cards to be a possibility. Assuming he's not playing J9 or something, i figure to have two live cards against any big cards.
I tried to figure it all out and it took me some time. To consider the impact of losing an additional 3000 would have on. I was short stacked even at 15,000 but i had room to manouver still, i could make a standard raise and still get away from a hand, but down to 10,000 most of those options disappear. Now the benfit of adding 8,000 to my stack was also significant. I would be at or above average stack and would be able to go after blinds more agressively.
In the end i called and he had AQo which was essentially my best case scenario, not counting a complete bluff or a pair under 5s ... neither of which i was expecting. So was my call something that was automatic in this spot, or do you think i could or should have passed on it. i did lose the hand if it matters.
Hand 2 (blinds @ 1000/2000)
Almost an entire orbit later i find myself UTG + 2 with 9000 in chips after having lost my BB pot and not defending my SB to a raise.
Also next hand the blinds will be going up the next hand to 1500/3000 so by the time the blinds get to me the SB and BB would consume 50% of my stack.
I see K6 suited in spades, and try to cash in on my tight image (only shown down top premium stuff and went all-in a few hands before with KK ... no slow play etc...)
To make a long story short everyone folds to the BB who calls me with measly Aces.
Two other players were put to the test by my all-in with one (who i think i'll trust, claimed to lay down JJ to my all-in). In my mind it was likely that nothing but AA, KK and QQ maybe not even JJ or AK could call me.
Do you like the move in that spot, with the blinds where they were at or would waiting even till the blinds have been more prudent. I just think near the end i would prefer to be raising rather than calling, and likely by the blinds i would be calling, thus elimiating the possibility of others folding.
btw the flop J77 (with two spades), giving me a flush draw
7 on the turn to leave me drawing dead with him making a boat
K on the river so at least i can say i went down with the boat
Comments
****I have a tight image to those who are paying attention.
****I am short stacked. It’s not clear to me if everyone is short stacked or not, but I am at only 8.5 BB’s.
His 5000 bet, SB 1000, my BB 2000 = 8000 in the pot
Cost to call 3000
Total pot if i call 11,000
2.6 to 1. And, if I lose, I will be at 11,000 chips in late position. So I am probably going to call unless it’s a real disaster hand. The other thing to consider (a little bit) is the consequence of chipping up this opponent.
Uh-oh. Disaster hand.
This is the same range of hands that I would, generally put him on. Against those hands you are about 30% to win the hand. So, the pot odds are close.
I think this is not right. If taking your stack from 15K to $21K moves you to above average stack then everybody is under blind pressure and I am not sure that the additional chips will help that much. I am now leaning towards folding. It’s into the zone I was talking about (I think) where the consequences of loss are worse than the benefits of the win. I fold.
The time to move is NOW. With anything reasonable.
If you are right about the range of hands that will call you then move in with ANY two cards. Personally, I would have passed the K-6s. Although it sounds like any hand will show you a positive expectation, I prefer to make my "last stand" with a hand that has a better chance if it is called. If you are called, K-6 will be in a world of hurt.
I would have moved in the next hand or two probably. But I would have, I think, folded the K-6s.
There is another phenomenon that I like to note. It’s not the end of the world to get to your big blind because it is surprising how often people will move on your blind even though they ought to know that you will call. In other words, defending your big blind against the range of raising hands can be OK – especially if you have a speeder in a seat that is likely to attempt stealing.
The difference in chip position was going to be 10,000 if i lose, 13,000 if i stand pat and 21,000 if i win the hand. So the difference was between 21,000 and 13000 not 21000 and 15000 ... doubt it makes any difference.
I really didn't love my move on K6s, and i do like your input on how people will atack the blinds even when they know calling is almost a certainty.
I knew that...
My point is still the same. If 21K is average or above average then EVERYONE is in a lot of trouble. It is in the stage of "hope that luck will see you through." You know with certainty that your 9-5 is going to be a close call one way or the other. I favour tying to get your money in as the favourite -- not simply with the best of it.
The hand i defended my blind on left me with only 10,000 chips. After losing my SB i made a rash move because i had only 9000 chips left and felt i needed to make a move.
If i don't defend that hand, i can make it through the blinds with a decent stack and will not be under pressure to make any rash moves. that's where the 3000 was really important. That extra 3000 meant if i couldnt do anything through the blinds i would have still likely come out with 8500 not what i would call great shape but still enough that calling an all-in would be difficult for others.
I think i really didn't comprehend the full ramifiations of losing the additional 3000 were, instead i was locked into what i could gain in this situation. The more i look at it, i know that that was one big mistake i made in the tournament. It was the one time my money got in as a huge dog the whole tourney, for any significant amount of my stack.
OK, I'm getting ready to readdress my earlier question about "losing worse than winning" and trying to quantify and answer.