[SPLIT] Hand discussion from stp's tournament

sweetjimmi

I agree that, for the tournament format, this was a bad call on my part. There was no reason to risk the tournament on this call except for the fact that I felt I had a good read on the situation. Still even having the read, it was a questionable call.

I have been pondering about this same idea since my recent buble in the $3 rebuy qualifier @ PStars. At what point do you hit the brakes? When you have a stack that is "PROBABLY" good how do you proceed? I don't have a lot of satellite experience and really am unsure what the right strategy is when I "PROBABLY" have a big enough stack as long as I maintain it.

Here's a situation that I'm not sure about.

$3 rebuy @ PokerStars

Table has been loosey goosey and we are getting closer to the money (top 40 with 40th getting $180 and the rest $215 to Sunday's $350,000)

I'm on the button with T$60,000, which I know is close to being good for the money as long as I maintain the chip count. Now, we still are about 30 players away from the money. Blinds are $1,000/$2,000 plus Ante $100? (can't remember?)

Folds to me on the button T$60,000 (approx) 7 :spade: 9 :spade:
SB T$10,000
BB T$35,000, both approx.

I raise to $6,000 which was normal (I raise different amounts depending on certain things but 3BB is my normal open) which I give both my opponents credit for noticing (I mention this since most of my raises when shown down have been big hands and I hadn't had to fold to a reraise.

Anyway, SB pushes for balance approx $4,500 I think and BB Folds.

So it's $4,500 to me...now in a normal tourney I make this call based on odds and knowing that SB does need a big pair to push here. Now, I think the odds say call but it is $4,500 in chips that could help me money later.

So I agonized about this quite a bit...and I'm still not too sure what the right play is other then not raising with junk I should probably be limping with...but who am I kidding...I will keep raising...or is raising the wrong play...

Please comment on both situations...raising preflop wrong? And call or fold for $4,500?

Thanks for reading

SirWatts

Raising is the right play imo unless you've been stealing way too much already. The BB has the perfect size stack to steal from and the SB has enough chips to not be committed to the pot, especially since he now has another lap to find a real hand before his next blind (or position steal on the next couple hands instead of calling your raise). This late in the tournament people are playing very tight and I'm looking to mainly steal blinds to sustain my stack and avoid any real confrontation. Your raise does look like a steal so SB might go all-in with a variety of hands. Given the large pot odds you should call. Before the flop limping is very bad, since a raise is too likely to win unconested, and why would you want to play a 3-way pot with a small suited connector anwyays? It's a raise or fold situation, and I make the decision based on my image, but generally leaning towards raising.

sweetjimmi

Sirwatts, this is regardless of the type of tourney (ie satellite or freeze out)? I do agree as I did raise (obviously) and call the all-in. The table was a little shocked (too say the least) but my guess is mostly since I had a pretty tight aggressive image.

ScottyZ

This seems to be worth putting in a separate thread.

What would the average chip count be when arriving at the Top 40 players?

That is, I don't know what this means:

I'm on the button with T$60,000, which I know is close to being good for the money as long as I maintain the chip count.

Do you have Top 40 average chips? Double or triple the Top 40 average chips? Half of the Top 40 average chips? A Top 40 alternative rock single, "Blind Stealin' in the U-S-A?"

The pre-flop play is raise or fold. It depends on the extent to which you think you can (or cannot) coast into the Top 40. If your stack is quite large relative to the top 40 average chips, you fold. Otherwise, you need to build some more chips, so you raise.

Calling the re-raise from the SB is easy. $4.5K more to call into a pot ~$15K gives you the right odds to call if your opponent shows you the Aces. The fact that he could have other hands makes the call even more clear.

The table was a little shocked...

What, they've never seen "stealing the blinds" before?

ScottyZ

sweetjimmi

That is, I don't know what this means

Sorry, T$60,000 is good for approx. avg 40 players left. So it is I figure close to good enough, if maintianed, to get to a payday.

What, they've never seen "stealing the blinds" before?

T'was my first blind steal eva!!! See my signature for more details.

Scotty, thanks for splitting this. I have been debating posting this situation for a couple days now and Zithal's thread pushed me too the edge.

ScottyZ

I just realized that I already have enough information to compute the Top 40 average stack since I know what the total prize pool is. (It's $8,565 = 2,855 buy-ins.)

The average Top 40 stack works out to be more than* 107K.

To me, 60K at around half the satellite target average is not so comfortable that I think I could be cruising into the Top 40. It's also not at all hard pressed as a short stack either. I think that makes it a pretty close decision between going for a blind steal here or folding.

I'd lean towards folding myself, since the SB is short-stacked and may feel like making a bonsaiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii play. (Against which you would be, as we've already seen, pot-committed.)

"Fear the short stack."

ScottyZ

*More since I assumed all the buy-ins were for 1,500 chips, wheras in reality some of them are for 2,000. Adjusting for the add-ons bumps up the Top 40 average by something like another 7K-10K.

sweetjimmi

The average Top 40 stack works out to be more than* 107K.

Hmmmm, when I bubbled out I thought that the avg. stack was at $75,000. Something is wrong here. I just confirmed your number Scotty and you're deffinitely right. I musta misread as it wouldn't be my first time...just weird.

Anyway, I did feel comfortable with my stack and I "knew" that I was niether cruzing to the money or short stacked.

I'm still not sure that flat call here to set up a play on the flop is terrible...which was previously mentioned.

Whatcha think?

sweetjimmi

LoL...I'm stupid!!! The avg. stack was at $75,000 when I "bubbled" out in 60th. So (75,000*20)/40 = 37,500. 37,500+75,000 = 112,500. All which are approx but now make sense.

So at $60,000 I guess I was more comfortable than I shoulda been?

ScottyZ

I'm still not sure that flat call here to set up a play on the flop is terrible...which was previously mentioned.

Whatcha think?

I'd raise or fold nearly 100% of the time here. I'm certainly not going to go for a steal 100% of the time, but in the cases where I feel that stealing is unwarranted, I'm folding.

I can't think of any two hole cards I'd just call with in the exact spot you described.

ScottyZ

ScottyZ

So at $60,000 I guess I was more comfortable than I shoulda been?

It's pretty middle of the road in terms of stack size pressure. You're definitely not a short stack with 30 big blinds. (And not a large stack either.) You're still going to have to build some more chips, so I definitely don't think you can just tighten up and fold into the money.

At about half the target-average stack, I'd say you're pretty much in the "typical tournament play" zone. Need to build chips, but not desparate to do so.

ScottyZ

SirWatts

Having played a good few of these $3 rebuys myself 60K is a nice stack but you're far from qualifying. You still have time to wait and only play good hands but I prefer to be a bit more aggressive usually with that breathing room and try to win some blinds. I'm not sure I've played one that paid out that many spots before, sounds like you had a really big one. I agree with Scotty's "Fear the short stack". This is very important to consider. Essentially it comes to down to knowing the the players in the blinds. If the short stack seems like he's ready to give up you should pass, or if the big blind calls way too much you should pass. But, given you have a tight image, and if the blinds are decent players, a blind steal will work very often here. This is the part of the tournament where I start stealing a lot of blinds based on my previous tight image. I think this is a very close call though and maybe is more a matter of playing style then of one choice being clearly better than the other. I don't think the prize structure makes a big difference here, since given your stack size I think you are still too far from the money to start changing your strategy too much yet. Oh I forgot to mention that you have a hand that is unlikely to be dominated if you get all-in vs the small blind, you're probably just a 3-2 dog or so which isn't the worst scenario.

Tilter

I think raising preflop was the wrong play. I think your qualifying for the 350K I believe which is about $215/3 = 72 buyins or about 100K in chips. With 60K in chips, you can easily squeeze into a seat. I see this alot, where big stacks raise and go all in and get called by another big stack. Why risk it when all th e little stakc will go bust and you will eventually get the seat. But after placing the bet into the pot, I would make the call.