Calling the math guys

ErculesErcules
in General Poker Chat
Just curious:

In a 396 hand session what are the odds of being dealt QQ 3 times? And what are the odds of each of those times being up against AA?

the math is beyond me, so I am just wondering.

Comments

  • DataMnDataMn
    Ercules wrote: »
    Just curious:

    In a 396 hand session what are the odds of being dealt QQ 3 times? And what are the odds of each of those times being up against AA?

    the math is beyond me, so I am just wondering.

    Percentage of times you will have QQ in a 396 hand session:

    0: 16.6%
    1: 29.9%
    2: 26.8%
    3: 16.0%
    4: 7.2%
    5: 2.5%
    6+: 1.0%

    Assuming a 10 handed table, when you have Queens someone else will have aces:

    (1 - 4 * 3 / 50 / 49) ^ 9 = 4.32% or 1 time in 23.12

    For it to happen 3 times in a row, this calculates out to once in every 12,380 times.
  • ErculesErcules
    Thanks!
  • moosemoose
    DataMn wrote: »
    Percentage of times you will have QQ in a 396 hand session:

    0: 16.6%
    1: 29.9%
    2: 26.8%
    3: 16.0%
    4: 7.2%
    5: 2.5%
    6+: 1.0%

    Assuming a 10 handed table, when you have Queens someone else will have aces:

    (1 - 4 * 3 / 50 / 49) ^ 9 = 4.32% or 1 time in 23.12

    For it to happen 3 times in a row, this calculates out to once in every 12,380 times.

    Uhh, .16*396 = 63.36 times I will have QQ. I want to play in your casino!!!!!!
  • DataMnDataMn
    moose wrote: »
    Uhh, .16*396 = 63.36 times I will have QQ. I want to play in your casino!!!!!!

    No.

    If you play 396 hands, there is a 16% chance that you will have QQ exactly 3 times.
  • moosemoose
    Odds of any specific pp

    4/52 * 3/51 = .4524887% * 396 = 1.79 times
  • moosemoose
    DataMn wrote: »
    No.

    If you play 396 hands, there is a 16% chance that you will have QQ exactly 3 times.

    That's not what you wrote. edit: Nevermind, I comprehend your table now.
  • DataMnDataMn
    I'm sorry that I didn't make a fancy chart so that any engineering professors could understand it better. I forgot my giraffe pictures at home.

    What did you think the 0: 1: 2: 3: was there for?? The numbers would change every time you played 396 hands?
  • moosemoose
    Meh engineers, your english confused me. Back to marking labs now.
  • MiloMilo
    moose wrote: »
    Meh engineers, your english confused me. Back to marking labs now.

    Why, do they move around much? Who are you irl, Heisenburg?
  • waltsfriendwaltsfriend
    DataMn wrote: »

    Assuming a 10 handed table, when you have Queens someone else will have aces:

    (1 - 4 * 3 / 50 / 49) ^ 9 = 4.32% or 1 time in 23.12

    For it to happen 3 times in a row, this calculates out to once in every 12,380 times.

    Although I don't really want to question your math, I wonder if this is accurate. If you assume that the other person already has two queens, shouldn't the denominator be 48*47 instead of 50*49?
  • DataMnDataMn
    Are there not 52 cards in the deck? Where did the other 2 cards go?
  • waltsfriendwaltsfriend
    DataMn wrote: »
    Are there not 52 cards in the deck? Where did the other 2 cards go?

    The other two are the queens that you know are already in play.
  • DataMnDataMn
    So, if 2 queens are in play, then the next 2 cards drawn would have denominators 50 and 49 instead of 52 and 51.

    I will admit that there would be a minute difference between my number and the actual because mine treats each other hand as an independent draw instead of dependent

    ie. if the first opponent does not have aces then it is slightly more likely that the next opponent will have aces.
  • DataMnDataMn
    Against 4 players you will run your Queens into Aces 1 time in 51.11 (1.96%)
    Against 5 players you will run your Queens into Aces 1 time in 40.91 (2.44%)
    Against 6 players you will run your Queens into Aces 1 time in 34.10 (2.93%)
    Against 7 players you will run your Queens into Aces 1 time in 29.24 (3.42%)
    Against 8 players you will run your Queens into Aces 1 time in 25.60 (3.91%)
    Against 9 players you will run your Queens into Aces 1 time in 22.77 (4.39%)
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    So if we add KK to the equation how does it change the numbers? >:D





    LOL, actually you guys make my head hurt... And I used to think I was a math guy way back when...




    Of course we had only created numbers up to 10 by then..
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