Analyze This
Deerfoot Megastack $450. 120ish runners, 55ish left. 25k starting stacks. Avg stack 55-60k.
Blinds 800 1600, 200 ante.
9 handed.
EP (100k) R to 3200...I have him as a decent online player by his bet sizing, age, general play. He hasn't played a large number of hands, but has stolen a few pots here and there with cbets vs tighter players in position. Seems on the tighter side.
Button (40k) thinks forever and calls.
SB folds.
I (100k) have KJdd in the BB and call. POT 12200 -- I haven't shown down any weak hands, I have show down a set and a full house for my only 2 big pots. I have stolen several small pots vs the tighter players.
Flop QdTs4d.
I often lead out here but decide to try and c/r given that around 15 hands ago I c/r a set vs an overpair and got it all in stacking someone for 45k. I am assuming a c/r gives me more fold equity in this spot given that history and given how deep (70bb) we are.
GTA: check
EP: Bet 7k (POT 19200)
Button: Fold
GTA: Raise to 25k (POT 44200)
EP: Instashoves -- this narrowed his range for me to AA/KK/AQ as I am certain this player pauses with a set and does not shove a naked flush draw or ATdd...it is extremely rare for a live player not to pause with a set in this spot before raising.
Button: Fold
GTA: snap call
EP: AA
With that pot size I am always calling for chip EV, but in a tournament is anyone every folding to preserve a 70k stack? My table had probably 3 solid internet players, a solid live player, a tight but solid live player, a good live player, an overly tight live player, one bad live player and me...so not a great table.
My thoughts: I know if I win that pot I can dominate the table as it was playing fairly tight, but at the same time I could probably chip up with 70k as well.
IMO EP way overplayed his hand 70bb deep given that my range in that spot to commit 70bb is pretty much QT, KJdd and sets.
Part 2:
Another interesting question -- what do you do given all the above info if you are in EP's position after I c/r the flop to 25k?
Blinds 800 1600, 200 ante.
9 handed.
EP (100k) R to 3200...I have him as a decent online player by his bet sizing, age, general play. He hasn't played a large number of hands, but has stolen a few pots here and there with cbets vs tighter players in position. Seems on the tighter side.
Button (40k) thinks forever and calls.
SB folds.
I (100k) have KJdd in the BB and call. POT 12200 -- I haven't shown down any weak hands, I have show down a set and a full house for my only 2 big pots. I have stolen several small pots vs the tighter players.
Flop QdTs4d.
I often lead out here but decide to try and c/r given that around 15 hands ago I c/r a set vs an overpair and got it all in stacking someone for 45k. I am assuming a c/r gives me more fold equity in this spot given that history and given how deep (70bb) we are.
GTA: check
EP: Bet 7k (POT 19200)
Button: Fold
GTA: Raise to 25k (POT 44200)
EP: Instashoves -- this narrowed his range for me to AA/KK/AQ as I am certain this player pauses with a set and does not shove a naked flush draw or ATdd...it is extremely rare for a live player not to pause with a set in this spot before raising.
Button: Fold
GTA: snap call
EP: AA
With that pot size I am always calling for chip EV, but in a tournament is anyone every folding to preserve a 70k stack? My table had probably 3 solid internet players, a solid live player, a tight but solid live player, a good live player, an overly tight live player, one bad live player and me...so not a great table.
My thoughts: I know if I win that pot I can dominate the table as it was playing fairly tight, but at the same time I could probably chip up with 70k as well.
IMO EP way overplayed his hand 70bb deep given that my range in that spot to commit 70bb is pretty much QT, KJdd and sets.
Part 2:
Another interesting question -- what do you do given all the above info if you are in EP's position after I c/r the flop to 25k?
Comments
AA, prolly flat the 25k, shove safe turn card, cry when shown set. Enough chips to get away on turn.
This is the main part that both players did wrong. As Dan Harrington wrote, the worst decision in an all-in is NOT calling or folding, but in making a snap decision.
This is similar to my final hand in the Casino Rama tournament. I value bet on the flop, villain raises, I put him on a semi-bluff draw and eventually 3-bet him all-in without having to break my wrists, arms, elbows or shoulders. He snap calls with an Ace-high flush draw, I'm 54% ahead, and the rest is history.
It was a snap after all the above info on previous streets was known. I knew what he had so I'm not going to tank with an oesdfd. I think my snap is pretty easy given all the info I had and the odds I was getting even if you want to throw a set into his range. His snap shove with 1 pair was awful IMO.
As the author of the most advanced poker book I've read in the past 7 years wrote, if you ever snap-call a shove without the nuts, you played it wrong, regardless of the results.
If you know the odds and your opponents range and have done all the calculations already how long are you supposed to take to decide? Taking longer than necessary to make the obvious decision in live poker is just terrible and is what is killing live games in some areas. It's not like it takes more than a few seconds to place his range and calculate pot odds in this spot. It is fold or call.
I see your point re: snap calling, but in this case it was a pretty black and white situation for me.
Anyhow, not really playing many tournaments my main consideration was whether there are any instances where experienced live tournament players would fold this spot given how deep I was...I am doubtful anyone would, but just wanted some further opinions.
In a cash game I am never folding in this identical situation (although I would never be playing this shallow in cash), but there has to be some validity of folding with 40+bb left when I got to 70bb without ever really having my stack at risk?
I am thinking of going to the ftp Montreal festival.
phuck Wetts.......T8 is here
why the phuck do I miss these draws more than I miss gutshots?
Anyhow, I've always been as happy as Compuease at a nit convention to get it in here all day on the flop...
If we check raise here, we're looking to get it in on the flop (sorry Blondefish, but it's a snap as played......always know what your plan is).
Now, if we check call flop (7k).....check call turn (assuming 15k?).....and check folding river if we miss all streets (-25.4k total in hand).
Will we get maximum action if we hit turn or river? If yes, then we'd end up +100k if we hit, while only losing 25% of our chips if we miss (a nit's pov)
Obv we're missing out on the number of times they are folding to a checkraise on the flop...which is probably significant, and makes this the best play imo.
All in all, hand was played well, and I believe, to maximize ev.
I really don't mind calling a bet on the flop though and it'd probably be what I'd do if I thought EP's opening range was fairly narrow. If he's a decent player and you have the image of a decent player, he's probably not targeting your blinds light. If he was in later position and/or raising wider, I'd be more willing to c/r. You have a ton of chips, I'd just toss in the 7k and try to hit. Getting it in on the flop is a bit too high variance for my taste. To me, the risk of busting is greater than the benefit you would get from the extra 100k at this stage of the tournament.
all while getting chat banned...;)
You don't feel that a c/r has fold equity on that flop vs a good player that deep? I know that I can never shove 100k as the EP in that spot with 1 pair.
A c/r has fold equity and may be greater cEV but it's the more higher variance play and can result in you flipping your tournament life for chips you don't really need at this stage. You're getting enough immediate odds to call to hit your draw and, if you factor in any sort of implied odds, calling is definitely +EV too. It might be just my style of play but I'd rather not take this risk in a tournament with a structure that good. See a cheap turn and still have 90k to work with.
Answering part two of your question: to me, it doesn't look like the scariest board for aces. Hands that you'd be worried about would be 44, QT and less often tens (depending on the player). I think there's a lot more hands that aces are beating/racing with (Qx, combo draws) than there are hands that crush them. You could flat but a lot of scare cards can potentially come on the turn and you're in an awkward spot with just a psb left. I'd be pretty comfortable with going with it for 100k.
Not sure I understand why you're happy to get it in with 50% and one pair, but not 50% and a draw? A flip is still a flip.
To add to this, I think that my line has more fold equity than his.
I don't think the question has anything to do with whether I'd get it in with the aces or not (which I probably would). I just think that in this situation, there's a second less variance (but still +EV) way to play your draw and, against a tighter opening range from EP, I'd prefer to play it that way. I did just re-read the OP and the description that you thought of him as an online guy so I'm also okay with a c/r and getting it in but would probably go with just calling most of the time.
Just out of curiosity, how would you guys play the aces to the check/raise?
In cash games you make money vs players stacking with 1 pair.
Do you really think Qx is c/r here very often? I don't. There isn't much value in that line IMO.
The only combo draws are ATdd KJdd J9dd and K9dd with which you are basically flipping (and I don't think K9dd gets it in here all that often), so that leaves you with these hands and sets which have you crushed. I guess you could throw in AQ there, but I doubt that AQ is ever calling in that spot (I know I never would).
I just feel like there are a lot more hands that I'm beating/flipping with than I'll be crushed by. Obviously a dry board would be different but given this draw heavy board, I'd find it hard to get away from it.
Maybe, but he is playing his hand face up so it's tough to expect any Q to call in this spot and my table was playing pretty tight on top of that.
Both CR and lead are fine, and I like your reasoning behind the CR.