QQ OOP vs LAG
Here's a hand I saw recently at Woodbine. 1/2. Effective stack: 250.
There are a couple of limpers, LAG in LP raises to 15. Loose player on button calls. BB is a fairly tight player, looks frustrated and calls. As it turns out, BB has QQ. At least, that is what he told me.
Is a call here correct? From what I understand, he figured he had the best hand and was expecting the LAG to continue betting.
If you raise here, how much? Expect to be called for any amount < 60. What is your plan for a 'safe' flop? What is a safe flop against a LAG?
3 to the flop. To be continued.
There are a couple of limpers, LAG in LP raises to 15. Loose player on button calls. BB is a fairly tight player, looks frustrated and calls. As it turns out, BB has QQ. At least, that is what he told me.
Is a call here correct? From what I understand, he figured he had the best hand and was expecting the LAG to continue betting.
If you raise here, how much? Expect to be called for any amount < 60. What is your plan for a 'safe' flop? What is a safe flop against a LAG?
3 to the flop. To be continued.
Comments
Most likely with a raise to 60 is LAG just calls. Won't this shut the LAG down though? So he'll fold any flop he doesn't hit strong or have a strong draw? So you get an extra 45 PF 80% of the time but not another dime post flop and you either lose the rest of your stack 5-15% of the time or double up if he misses his draw 5-15% of the time.
Or the LAG folds and the button folds and you make 30. Is that good enough? For myself I'd like to play for stacks with QQ against a LAG but I'm not sure if that strategy is too risky.
I'm curious how you see it.
With an SPR of only < 1.4 and given LAG's wide range, there's not many flops that I would be so weak as to fold. Just like on Sunday, my chips end up all-in with my overpair, and LAG hits his two-outer.
I then shout, "This &^%$#@! dealer is as rigged as JokerStars!", flip over the table, then go ask "The Kungpow Cowboy", "GTA Poker" & "Auntie Fed" to go play Credit Card Roulette instead in the newly renovated buffet restaurant.
Would anyone be interested in working with me to calculate the EV of raising to 60 vs smooth calling pre-flop or is it too 'obvious'?
The full decision trees to your question may be beyond the computational capabilties of this forum (or at least the 3 players that bothered to respond), but feel free to post your first approximation.
Could, but have to figure out how wide LAG flats our raise pre.
OBV we know he jams KK+ and folds napkins, but does he flat 45ss, kq, etc?
Pretty sure most players on this forum can perform basic algebra.
I don't know the answer to this yet because I rarely see a 3 bet against them and even more rarely see their hands. Can you approximate his range based on your experience with lags?
If 60 is not the optimal raise please suggest a better value.
Thanks.
No, Tapatalk says this can't be changed.
(15 * 3 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 50 pot; + 15 = 65 total for a pot-sized raise)
Flatting vs. 2 villains & first to act on all 3 streets will have much lower EV.
Most live players have no idea of Nash equilibrium 3-betting, but not 3-betting with QQ OOP is a big leak. You become highly exploitable & observant players will auto-raise you everytime you're the BB without having to look at their cards (I always look but some LAGs get a high on playing hands blind & winning). My squeezing range will include TT+, & occasionally hands as weak as 53s & 64s.
Reason I was thinking $50.00 is because it is likely the LAG is raising with something he considers decent, but is also looking to thin out the limpers. You are almost 100% to be ahead p/f.
BB's (frustrated) call would seem to indicate that he wanted a cheap flop or at least a multi-way pot.
$50.00 might be enough to drop the limpers and one of either the LAG or the BB. If the LAG stays, okay, but I would be more concerned by a call from the BB.
More experienced folks than I have said that $60.00 seems about the minimum for your raise though, so lets see what happens.
For the purposes of analysis, could we say LAG calls 60 with 66-TT, AJs+, AQ and maybe a few suited connectors? I don't know. That might be too wide. And he jams with JJ+, AK?
Further, can we assume the button folds 99% of the time but jams 1% of the time?
Help me out with next steps
Not at all