No limit win expectations?
Looking for some input once again 
I have had an incredible run in NL online and off, ring games both short and full tables.
I have made the jump from $10 to $50 sit down and have had an incredible run of sessions.
Over all I am 467% of my oneline BR and this is running over 10K hands.
Obviously this is NOT sustainable, however I am going to the table and become disappointed if I am not leaving up 100% of my buy in.
I have seen the 5BB super goal of a couple of members (NO HIJACKING THIS THREAD
)but that is limit. I know I am due for some BIG swings but what should my long term expectations be?
I have found the play to be overly aggressive or overly weak (Im starting to prefer the overly aggressive you get paid off BIG
) not much in the middle. How much of an anomoly is this?
I have had an incredible run in NL online and off, ring games both short and full tables.
I have made the jump from $10 to $50 sit down and have had an incredible run of sessions.
Over all I am 467% of my oneline BR and this is running over 10K hands.
Obviously this is NOT sustainable, however I am going to the table and become disappointed if I am not leaving up 100% of my buy in.
I have seen the 5BB super goal of a couple of members (NO HIJACKING THIS THREAD
)but that is limit. I know I am due for some BIG swings but what should my long term expectations be?I have found the play to be overly aggressive or overly weak (Im starting to prefer the overly aggressive you get paid off BIG
) not much in the middle. How much of an anomoly is this?
Comments
For instance, I am doing the same thing as a guy calling himself Pokernerd on Blogspot....basically hundreds of sit and gos, 4 at a time, with a rote super tight strategy. This guy has made 5k or so in a month on the 20 and 30 buy in sng's, with a ROI of around 25-30%. Personally I have played 180 10/1 sit and gos in the past 3 weeks and am up about $550. This equals about 18k hands. I am confident this is sustainable given no changes in style. I have run some statistical regression on my results, based on my average standard deviation, my results were statistically significant at a 95% confidence interval after 30-40 games. I can also calculate the slope of the expected return to a fairly high degree of accuracy. My goal is to see where Im at after 500 games...about 40k hands.
If you are talking about a cash table, this is different beast. Obviously, ROI as calculated my way for the sng's is totally different as you dont know how much you are staking (rebuys) in any cash game...and there is no defined time limit for a game. I would imagine the variance for NL cash games is at least 2-3x that for sit and gos. To be honest, the variance is still pretty wild...I can post a chart on here to show you, but with a $700 bankroll, I have $100 swings all the time with just the 10/1 games. However, when I run an LS regression line through the data points, there is a very stable trend line. Lots and lots of play is your key to reducing variance. Your bankroll needs to be large enough to sustain this.
Does anyone have any guidelines for sit and go bankroll? I have been using the following:
You want ideally 20 x (buy in + rake)....ie 20 x (10 +1) = 220. I have calculated that at my standard deviation (historical) and expected return over almost 200 games there is less than a 5% chance of me going broke with this bankroll.
I feel that a 10-15x bankroll is quite reasonable, however.
I am talking Online Ring NL, started with $100 and $10 buy in NL tables built up to a point I was covered well moving into $50 Buy in NL.
I a three hour session, I tend to blow 20% of stack setting up my loose image, then turn that into a $100 by the end of the session. Yes there are -$100 swings, but there seem to be alot more +$200 sessions.
Like I said I'm dissapointed if I haven't doubled my $ in a three hour session, Im sure this is going to lead to some long term depression :frown: soon, but what should I be judging myself against?
In Terms of BB, well um, I guess I would be in the 30BB per hour range (over the last couple of months) so probably not a good measure for NL, or is the 4BB level realistic and I have to expect a BIG swing soon?
Should you look at % of bankroll per X number of sessions?
Anyone with a magic formula?
% return (ROI) per hour.
So this is ($ net positive / total amount bought in including rebuys for that game) / total hours
The tricky part with this is just trakcing your total $$ amounts...ie if you move areound tables a lot. (ie you are up $4 then switch tables b/c the game got shitty after 0.5 hour then rebought for 50 again at a new table. In this case, your ROI/HR for just the first 0.5 session = 4/50/0.5)
Sessions arent all a uniform length and you wouldnt want them to be if you are in a good game.
Good luck.
- That's why Prozac was invented.
I think it would be funny to pop a couple of pills and play a real life tournament.
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