What are the odds of this??

Yayiwin

I was playing in this MTT last night 20$ buy-in.I ended up finishing 4th for a decent payout,but these 2 hands really stuck out in my head for obvious reasons.Just curious as to what the odds are of this happening.They were one hand right after the other...
Thx Yayiwin,

Game Started on Sun Mar 06, 2005 @ 23:33
10:30pm NLHE $20-9 - Holdem - NL 0 - Real Money - Hand #58674897

**Hand #58674897 begins**
Dave798 receives the dealer button
Firestopper posts small blind 100
Thimmy posts big blind 200
You are dealt[5s,8s]
Rusty203 folds
jrox22 folds
TOMMYKGB calls 200
Sheldamn folds
mwhitt folds
Krenkdaddy folds
Dave798 folds
Firestopper calls 100
Thimmy checks
Flop is dealt [2h,6s,7s]
Firestopper bets 300
Thimmy calls 300
TOMMYKGB folds
Turn is dealt [9s]
Firestopper bets 200
Thimmy calls 200
River is dealt [2c]
Firestopper goes all in 0
Firestopper bets 396
Thimmy calls 396
Thimmy shows two pairs Sevens and Twos
Thimmy's pocket cards were [7d,Jd]
Firestopper shows a straight flush Nine high
Firestopper's pocket cards were [5s,8s]
Firestopper wins $2392 play money from main pot
**Hand #58674897 ends**


******************************************************
Game Started on Sun Mar 06, 2005 @ 23:31
10:30pm NLHE $20-9 - Holdem - NL 0 - Real Money - Hand #58674821

**Hand #58674821 begins**
Krenkdaddy receives the dealer button
Dave798 posts small blind 100
Firestopper posts big blind 200
You are dealt[8c,Jh]
Thimmy folds
Rusty203 raises 600
jrox22 folds
TOMMYKGB folds
Sheldamn folds
mwhitt folds
Krenkdaddy folds
Dave798 calls 500
Firestopper folds
Flop is dealt [Td,Jd,9d]
Dave798 bets 504
Rusty203 calls 504
Turn is dealt [Ac]
Dave798 goes all in 0
Dave798 bets 2469
Rusty203 goes all in 0
Rusty203 calls 596
River is dealt [5c]
Dave798 shows a pair of Aces
Dave798's pocket cards were [As,Ks]
Rusty203 shows a straight flush King high
Rusty203's pocket cards were [Qd,Kd]
Rusty203 wins $3600 play money from main pot


I'm player Firestopper in the second hand .This tourney was on Trupoker.

ScottyZ

It's nearly impossible to determine the probability of any particular hand occuring at the showdown (or any betting round) in a Texas Holdem game (or any poker game with betting), since players make decisions on each betting round which influence the nature of the showdown. Modelling the probabilities underlying these player decisions is well beyond the scope of 1,000,000 Einsteins working on 1,000,000 CRAY supercomputers for 1,000,000 years.

Almost every statistical argument I have seen which was designed to prove that online poker is rigged fails to take this conditionality into account.

One thing I know for sure is that if you (and/or your Einstein computing slaves) ever work out that the probability of seeing a straight flush at the showdown is X, then the probability of two SF's occurring in the next two hands you see is X^2, right as rain.*

ScottyZ

*Unless somebody went to the bathroom for hand #2. Or modified his starting requirements due to having a sip of Leffe Blond between the two hands.

RAM_Eh

A little off topic, but I played a live round about a month ago in a 5/10 game and the flop comes 789 of :diamond: .

Turn was a 8,

river was a 8.

I never saw the flop, but three did.

the betting on all rounds after the flop were capped!

first had a tight 9's over 8's

next had a straigh flush with the 5-6 of :diamond:

Last had the nuts with the 10-J of :diamond:

This just blew me away!!!

pkrfce9

ScottyZ wrote:

It's nearly impossible to determine the probability of any particular hand occuring at the showdown (or any betting round) in a Texas Holdem game (or any poker game with betting), since players make decisions on each betting round which influence the nature of the showdown. Modelling the probabilities underlying these player decisions is well beyond the scope of 1,000,000 Einsteins working on 1,000,000 CRAY supercomputers for 1,000,000 years.

Not quite but I see your point. In this case, the odds of it happening were EXACTLY 100%. Unless he's lying...