Reads and putting someone in a box...
Dave,
Recently you wrote about reading a player through position and betting reflex/betting frequency....great post. I also agree with Daniel N, this is the proverbial pot of gold.
I was curious about putting a player in a box....if you have a player that after seeing it 5 times in 20 hands is stealing in late position, a 'stealer', and you have no other info on this guy, how can you put him in a box if he has yet to show down a hand? Even if he ends up showingn down 3 hands, and raises pre flop another 6 times in another 40 hands...its still only 3 hands shown down.
An interesting thought...last night on TSN I was watching the PP Euro poker open. This guy (who we found out was somewhat tight weak) kept raising pre flop a bunch of hands in a row right as the thing started, 2 positions away from Devilfish. Everyone seemed to think he was racing around. But he had hands! 99 twice, AJ etc (6 handed). He never had to show down. This led to some interesting play later on where he probably got more action than he would have otherwise. The point is, the other players had in the wrong box, even after 50 hands or so...simply because he never showed a hand, but pulled in lots of pots.
How do you handle this with no other knowledge on the player? Do you just test him to find out where the box may be? Is this level of reads something that really only develops after playing with any given player for hundreds and hundreds of hands?
Recently you wrote about reading a player through position and betting reflex/betting frequency....great post. I also agree with Daniel N, this is the proverbial pot of gold.
I was curious about putting a player in a box....if you have a player that after seeing it 5 times in 20 hands is stealing in late position, a 'stealer', and you have no other info on this guy, how can you put him in a box if he has yet to show down a hand? Even if he ends up showingn down 3 hands, and raises pre flop another 6 times in another 40 hands...its still only 3 hands shown down.
An interesting thought...last night on TSN I was watching the PP Euro poker open. This guy (who we found out was somewhat tight weak) kept raising pre flop a bunch of hands in a row right as the thing started, 2 positions away from Devilfish. Everyone seemed to think he was racing around. But he had hands! 99 twice, AJ etc (6 handed). He never had to show down. This led to some interesting play later on where he probably got more action than he would have otherwise. The point is, the other players had in the wrong box, even after 50 hands or so...simply because he never showed a hand, but pulled in lots of pots.
How do you handle this with no other knowledge on the player? Do you just test him to find out where the box may be? Is this level of reads something that really only develops after playing with any given player for hundreds and hundreds of hands?
Comments
i would usually pay to see their hole cards if it's not that expensive ...
or i might take a risk if he bets after the flop i would raise it a little and see what he would do
u'll be surprise how many ppl would like to steal the pot after the flop with nothing but a K or A high
could u explain to me what putting someone in a box mean?
It really is a matter of playing the odds. One has a sense of how often a typical player will raise. If THIS player is doing it more often than usual it is either because (1) He is getting a hot run of cards or (2) He is a steal-monkey. I am likely to put him in box number two.
There are other clues too. If you see the player in question scoping out the blinds' stack sizes and sizing up his opponents you know that he it thinking about stealing. Or, at least he is equipped with the skills to consider it.
My rule is that I want every player in a box after two laps of the button.
Yup. It happens. It he looks like a speeder, plays like a speeder, and smells like a speeder -- he's probably a speeder. Of course, sometimes he's not. It's the risk you have to take. In fact if you are a "fast" player it is still your hope that when someone finally decides to take a stand that you will actually have a hand.
It's a phrase that I use to describe "the limits of a players style and ability." In other words, define your opponents. If you have your opponents properly defined you will know which counter strategy to deploy.
You have this at your table;
UTG -- One who WAY over values paint in any position KJo, ATo, QTo
-- agressively bets out UTG, over values cards and tends to limp with monsters
4- -- Agressive player, doesn't over value but not exaclty tight plays speculative hands
but will raise or reraise to get heads up and play on the flop with small pockets or
good suited paint
5 --- Ultra Tight - Any bet means strenght, limps in with KQs, JTs in Ep and raises in LP with same holdings
6- --- Meak gets pushed out of flops after calling preflop reraises, doesnt raise much
bets when they have something, calls if there drawing etc
7 - --- Ultra Aggressive, raises with nothing BIg bluffer, tends to get paid off ALOT,
but usually hurts himself, plays tight 4-5 hands after a beat, then starts the
racing routine again
8 --- Calling station, but tight
SB --- Solid player doesnt take alot of chances unless there calculated but makes them
very easy to read/avoid
BB - Me or You, the one with no flaws
So heres the table; the question is you have the boxes, but what about when UTG raises out 6 calls and in the BB you have 99, you think that utg will reraise if you raise and 6 will probably think he's commited so call anything to see the flop
---- what do you do?
Or you have tight agressive raise, ultra reraises and you hold AQo or other good speculative hands on the button.
---- it's going to cost you a big % of your stack for this fight and you might not have the a stick big enough to club anyone
I hope this idea comes across ok, so when your mixing players styles - what advice do you give? What dictates your style against the ultra and tight in the same hand?
As well, when you have players in the box, how do you judge the box they have you in?
If you have shown that you can let go of a pot on the turn.... ( when you hit absolutley none of it but tried to take with a bet on the flop), can you let a check here on the turn when you have a monster the very next hand you play against them or do you have to advertise it a bit? How do you judge?
Multiple players and multiple boxes? Ultimately, the same question.
What range can we put UTG on? It looks to me like he his holding a hand that will have our 9-9 as a small favourite (any two big cards which he loves). It's possible that he might have us in a world of hurt (a larger pair). So, against UTG we are probably a small favourite, but maybe a big dog.
Wait... 6 is in the pot. He didn't re-raise so he probably has something that he is hoping to hit on the flop. Big cards? A small pair? Bother are possible.
Also, we know that re-raising will simply reopen the betting and we will get a bunch more chips committed. I am not really happy getting a bunch more chips committed against UTG. So... re-raising doesn't seem to be the right play. A call looks good. If the flop doesn't look dangerous then bet out and see what happens. UTG may be a problem post-flop, but 6 will exactly play his hand.
A fold also looks OK. We are not in a dominant position. We are weak. So... depending on chips counts, etc I might simply fold.
Fold. Althought Ultra may have almost anything, A-Q isn't strong enough to go wading into a re-raised pot -- particularly when the initial raising is fairly tight.
However, again depending on chip counts and proximity to money, moving in doesn't look too bad either (hoping to isolate the ultra player).
The boxes you have put them in enable this kind of thinking. IF you know NOTHING about either player you simply MUST fold. But, since you now that the first raiser has a broad range and the second raiser has an evern broadfer re-raise range you are equipped with the knowledge to consider moving in with a hand as weak as A-Q.
This really is "recent behaviour." Back to the earler example of the guy who got a lot of good hands at the start of the final table. Obviously, you have to paly the good hand, but you might want to ease off the marginal hands because you can expect that the other players think you are speeding.
What box do THEY have me in? What box would I have me in if I were them?
Controlling one's own image is important. I prefer to show cards that reinforce what others alredy think and then switch gears ASAP. So... show the uncalled A-A and then steal a couple of show the 6-4s bluff and then battern down the hatches.