Some Poker Hands from Cardplayer
Tom McEvoy's article in this month's magizine has seven hand questions. Pretty straight forward stuff but the first hand I'm not sure I like his play. I understand the logic but it seems a little weak tight to me. You have position with a hand that wants to see a flop and will be easy to get away from. I like calling but Tom says you shoudl fold. He doesn't discuss any of the hands in much detail and things like chip stacks and blinds are left out of the equation.
1. You have the A :diamond: J :diamond: on the button. A very conservative player in early position opens the pot for a raise of about four times the size of the big blind. Everyone passes and it’s up to you. What’s your play? (A) Call; (B) Fold; (C) Reraise
My analsysis is just based on wanting to see the flop and playing the hand from there. Now if very conservative player is only playing AA, KK, and/or AK then I probably fold but even tight player will play a much larger range of hands than this.
I don't know maybe it's a leak but with position I don't like his auto fold here.
1. You have the A :diamond: J :diamond: on the button. A very conservative player in early position opens the pot for a raise of about four times the size of the big blind. Everyone passes and it’s up to you. What’s your play? (A) Call; (B) Fold; (C) Reraise
My analsysis is just based on wanting to see the flop and playing the hand from there. Now if very conservative player is only playing AA, KK, and/or AK then I probably fold but even tight player will play a much larger range of hands than this.
I don't know maybe it's a leak but with position I don't like his auto fold here.
Comments
AJ (suited or not) is in big trouble against most of the hands a conservative early position raiser probably has.
I think hands like AJ and KQ tend to be somewhat overrated in NL. Especailly when facing a raise (or if they get re-raised), you're often in "big dog or even money" country before the flop. With AJ, even the even money case is a rarity, since you'd probably expect exactly TT to be the complete set of hands you're not badly losing to (99 is a maybe) from a tight early position raiser.
ScottyZ
*As sweetjimmi mentioned, there is some important information missing... like is this a cash game or tournament, what the stack/blind ratios are, how the conservative oppenent plays post-flop, etc.
stp
It depends on exactly how conservative he is. AJ is in big trouble against AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, or AQ; if those are the only hands the early player will open with a standard raise, then yeah, fold and give him the blinds. Then 30 or 40 hands later, when he finally hits another hand he's willing to play, give him the blinds again. Eventually he'll either be blinded away or loosen up, in the meantime there are no doubt other players at the table whose money needs taking. But players who are that conservative don't come up much in the real world, IME - someone playing according to Sklansky, for example, may well make that raise with a much wider assortment of hands. Against those more reasonably conservative players, AJ with position is not a bad hand at all.
However, it's not one I'd be likely to call with in this scenario - fold or raise is the way to go IMHO. Headsup with decent high cards and position, you want to have the initiative and make the other guy sweat a bit.
A couple more variables might be helpful. Am I the big stack? Is he the small stack? Are we near the bubble? How savvy is this guy?
If I had such a big stack that 4xBB meant nothing and busting him out would help me get into the bigger prize range, it's worth looking at. Chances are you are a dog going in but can improve.
Questions to consider: What kind of flop are you looking for? Obviously flopping the flush would be fantastic but that only happens around 1% of the time. Would you settle for an Ace or do you need to see 2pr? What if he has AA or AQ? Do you bet out in hopes he's playing QQ? I can see why it would be much easier (and likely cheaper) to just fold here!
As the agressor he has the power, say the flop comes down Ace high, and he leads out and bets the pot. He may have KK or QQ, but is trying to determine if you have an Ace. now you have a pickle because he is also just as likely to be betting with, AK or AQ. Unless you're willing to get all your chips in to find out, your better off to not put yourself in that spot
I think the stack size comes into it, BUT you have to be selective on which hands you would play. I love suited mid connectors here, but my problem is I end up getting bigstack- big head so I let AXs, KQ sneak in too, unfortunetely these are easily dominated by AA, KK AK etc.
So even with a big stack I agree it is wrong to call with AJ, but if I had 76s well I might be a little more inclined to gamble and see a flop.
Ofcourse, my problem is I tend to do this low stacked too.....hopefully I learn I cant beat EVERY flop.'
What if you were small stacked with AJs? I think this might be a very good chance to push your chips in. Thoughts?
p.s. I hope you are playing 76s throughout the tourney on Sat.
Yep it is a weak hand, but it is enough to get me into a flop against a tight player. IF
I have BigStack, there is enough of a stack on my opponent that I can break him for alot (probably 25+BB),and my image has momentum (which it probably does if I have a good stack). I may be out on left wing, hence my tourney game lack of success vs. cash game success
But against a Tight Strong (not cagey- or really deceptive) player, we have him on AA, KK, QQ probably not AK.
So AJ, AK, JJ, TT are all probably dominated even if you get a good flop, why push unless it makes it VERY uneasy for him to call, and you probably don't want a call. NOr would I push with mid suited connectors.
But VS AA, KK etc I have to avoid 2 cards, but I have alot of flops that can help me. Str, flush, two pair...and I do have position.
I may give this up on a flop quickly, but Im investing 4BB to get 25+BB. And if I hit my flop right otr have the right bluff opp.
Against You? Always
Table 4-seat 5 Our Hero!!!
Table 4-seat 6 PkrFace
Damn now I have to play next friggen calling station
Also at our table;
Graham and Shopsy, should make it interesting.
That table sounds more like a last man standing cage match! Bring it on, big boy!!!
Now give the aggressor QhQc. The ratios become 28:22:50. Hmmm. I guess it all depends on what kind of cards you give the aggressor credit for. Note how the 76 suited maintains its value (low...) but AJs does not. I guess that is because it derives its value mainly from its suitedness. That kind of makes sense to me.
ACtually i think it derives more value from the connectivness, i find while people count the added value of suitedness, the real value is fom connectivity.
Surprisingly, it does derive an almost equal value from its suitedness.
Here are the (severely rounded - you'll note this in the quads column...) numbers for winners with
pr, 2pr, 3oak, straight, flush, fh, quads, sf
76s: 0, 33, 24, 70, 68, 17, 1, 3
AJs: 117, 131, 23, 12, 68, 35, 2, 1
TT: 70, 134, 71, 16, 26, 79, 10, 0
Here are the (severely rounded - you'll note this in the quads column...) numbers for winners with
pr, 2pr, 3oak, straight, flush, fh, quads, sf
76s: 0, 33, 24, 78, 68, 17, 1, 2
AJs: 59, 86, 24, 15, 69, 22, 2, 1
QQ: 122, 173, 78, 10, 25, 83, 10, 0
The numbers are not 100% accurate due to insufficient hands dealt. Add flush to sf numbers to get an idea of the value of suitedness. I should have set this up as a table. Time to brush up on my html...
I would assume that he has a high pair KK or QQ etc.
Flushes are overrated.
I dunno about that - from the numbers you ran, it looks like the big difference is having two overcards to the pocket pair (when it's TT) vs. only one (when it's QQ). Which makes sense, the majority of the time when AJ wins the coinflip with TT in a headsup situation, it's going to be because one of the overcards hit a pair.
Does your simulation account for cards that make the competing hands better? For example, on the two pair column, are you eliminating the occasions when the second pair for TT/QQ is AA, JJ, 77, or 66?
It makes perfect sense to me that AJs is much stronger against TT than QQ. I included the numbers just to illustrate that. Your reasoning on that is sound.
I think we proved irrefutably last night (or was it this morning?) that 76s totally sucks. Any comments on that Redington???