How do you play a monster draw?
Friday Night at ARIA - $2/$5NL $1k max
Average table: 2 nits, 3 LAG, 5 TAG
Table is playing quite strong overall, couple of TAGs are very strong players, rest are average.
I've been at the table for about 2 hrs, I'm one of the average TAGs, and I have a decent sense of who is who. I've almost doubled up from my $500 buy-in, sitting at $900+, and have shown down only solid hands.
UTG nit (V) makes it $30, and 2 TAGs call from MP, I call from CO+1 with 9s10s, rest fold.
I'm 90% sure V has QQ, KK, AA, or AK suited as she'd only played 5 or 6 hands in 2 hrs, and they had all been monsters pre. V has me covered at about $1200.
Flop: 7s 8s 10d
V leads out $150, both MPs fold.
What's my move?
Average table: 2 nits, 3 LAG, 5 TAG
Table is playing quite strong overall, couple of TAGs are very strong players, rest are average.
I've been at the table for about 2 hrs, I'm one of the average TAGs, and I have a decent sense of who is who. I've almost doubled up from my $500 buy-in, sitting at $900+, and have shown down only solid hands.
UTG nit (V) makes it $30, and 2 TAGs call from MP, I call from CO+1 with 9s10s, rest fold.
I'm 90% sure V has QQ, KK, AA, or AK suited as she'd only played 5 or 6 hands in 2 hrs, and they had all been monsters pre. V has me covered at about $1200.
Flop: 7s 8s 10d
V leads out $150, both MPs fold.
What's my move?
Comments
Its really one of those push and pray spots, unfortunately.
My expectation is you raised (or pushed), got called and missed, and now are second guessing your decision.
Push with glee.
Mark
but behind realistically
you have the best hand tho
If she reraises on flop, I insta shove and smile..
And you are approx a 2-1 fav, if she has an over pair...
I always love the look on the other player's faces when you miss your monster draw and try to convince them you were actually ahead in this situation
What is a more difficult situation is when you don't pair the board and you are marginally ahead with the straight flush draw.
Unless she has AK, overpair is the best hand (hero has a pair of 10s with a straight+ flush draw). Having over 50% equity on the flop is not the same as having the best hand.
huh?^-^ If I shoved like $750. over top of your $120. bet on the flop and turned over my 9,10 would you call with your AA? If so would you do it 100 times in a row?
I believe being a favourite to win IS the definition of "best hand".
The reason I posted this hand is simply because I felt it was one of those hands that would generate a good discussion from several different points of view. I'm not regretting how I played it at all, just wanted too see what others would do in that spot.
Once I saw that flop I knew I was a big fave against her range, so I was trying to get it all in with max equity. I had seen her make a couple of big laydowns already, so I knew she could fold to a shove. I also wanted to raise enough to get her committed to the pot, but also make her believe she might have some fold equity if she shoved over top.
So, I made it $450, about half my remaining stack.
V tanks, audibly running through scenarios, declares "He must have a set.", then shoves.
I snap call and when we flip, she looks at me and says, "How do you not have a set?
Board miraculously runs Blank, Blank, and I'm felted. Best part is, she looks over as she rakes in the pot and says, "That's what happens when you play junk like that!" Myself and the good players look at each other and have a little chuckle.
REBUY!!
I like you, you're not nitty and scared :P
What would you do in this situation. You are dealt 2c2s and decide to raise to $10. Another player goes all-in for $500 and you have him covered. He even is nice enough to show you his cards, AKh. Do you call being marginally ahead in this situation (50.1%/49.9%)? You only have $10 invested in the hand so are willing to risk the rest of your stack on a coin toss?
Mark
yes, it's obviously close but folding would be silly, you lose nothing by calling
edit: Also, folding obviously costs you 10 bucks, imagine the kind of interest you'd need on your normal bank account to net 10 bucks in one night
If you are playing within your bankroll, you call. This is not a tournament, you are not out if you lose. In the long run, you end up ahead. If you were given an infinite amount of times in this situation, you would end up being ahead.
Regardless if it is a draw or not, if you are mathmatically ahead, you call. it doesn't matter if you have to hit a card of not, if you are a 60% favourite, then 60% of the time, you will hit your card.
So with this same logic, if I show you my 22, are you going to fold your AKd since you are behind by 0.08%? You are mathematically behind in that case.
I view it as playing blackjack for $500 a hand if I am 50/50 pre-flop. As I feel I have an edge against the players at my table, I would prefer to wait for a better opportunity to get my stack in the middle than to call with a very slight edge. There is no skill in coin tosses.
If you're talking "in a vacuum", and there's no extra money in the pot, so it's say a strict 100$ in to win $100, then yes, you should be folding.
FWIW I would call with 22 against AK
It isn't a coin toss. Math wins. If it's for a $100 and your odds are correct, over 1000 hands, you'll win (with 22) or lose (with AK) $200. I like money so I play good.
Mark
even if you showed my 22 I'd have to call with AKs since I have 10 dollars invested, if we each have 200 thats a move that would net me about 9,6 dollars, possibly also my share of dead money from blinds
IMO being 0.08% ahead is basically a coin toss. Don't get me started with the whole variance argument.
You really have to consider the dynamics of the table, the other players, previous hand experience, stacks, etc. Its not as straight forward as being a slight favourite when you make this call. You are never in a vacuum when you make this type of decision at the poker table.
"Basically" and "actually" are two different things, but you are right about the whole not in a vacuum thing, which is why I specifically mentioned the part about being in one.
Mark
It is that straightforward if you have money and its the only way to make maximum money, unless ofc you're worried about the other playing leaving the game if you felt him or if he doubles up, but thats all I can think of
Edit: Even then tho, do we really want to give villain 9,6 dollar for free to stick around in our game a bit longer? not sure
That sucks man... she must be tired of being pushed around after laying down several big/ overpairs and decided to try her luck out.
This is incredibly inaccurate considering the game doesnt end on the flop.
I prefer to leave that to the scared nits.
Yes you lost, you did it right, (probably) so be it....you learned something far more important than just winning a pot!
If villain is a drooler who will pay me off even if I hit my draw, I call. Vs players like that there is no need to get heeps of money in OTF as they will pay you off on the turn or river anyway.
Vs a NIT who has MUBS, I play it fast. They won't call when you hit your draw as they will convince themselves that you have it. So I want to get as much in while I am a stastical favourite and while they are likely to also call. I'll take a bit of variance knowing I am going to win the hand the majority of the time.
Vs a TAG competent player, I have to take into consideration position. OOP I will play it faster than in position. But then again, you will have to mix it up. Generally, while I am willing to mix it up, I tend to avoid getting into monster pots vs villains I perceive as compentent without good reason (ie. dead money and/or position).