Chopping the pot...
I have been rethinking one BIG decision I made in my last tourney.
After 10 hours, I have the chip lead at 17K, opponent had 15K. Opponent is a 'goofy' player, I would say poor but she had me completely confused. She would bet out with nothing but over cards (and strongly no weak betting she would risk 25% of her stack on a bluff) but she would also call with any part of the flop. So a maniac.
If I made a hand I would get paid off huge, ie flopped a nut flush, raised min (400) on the flop and got raised (800) so I bet the turn for 2k and got called and then the river brought a pair to the board, so no my hand wasnt the nuts still bet 2K and got called.
Board Js 2s 7s - 5s - 2h - I thought I was going to going to see J2 for the full but was happy to see TJ.
She played the rookie and no one really said anything if she asked the rail for help at the final table. At 5 players she only had 1k but managed to knock out three players and was playing incredibly lucky. She was happy, jumpy obviously she was winning the Bingo game and had a great attitude.
So here we are heads up, I have 17K she has 15k we played for a half an hour at 500/1000 and it went up and down 2-3k but nothing more. She has become really aggressive and I am really afraid to double her up.
Im at 18K she is at 14k.
I'm exhausted, mentally I'm trying to figure out what she has every hand. She doesn't care what I have and is playing 'happy'.
1st place pays - 600
2nd is 375
I offer her a deal, $450 each and we just play for the last $75 and the title.
I know that I am the better player and it is just a matter of time until all of her chips come to my side of the table. But she will not fold to any finesse moves (or pre flop raises) but will fold to a large preflop raise without any cards (she will call with any ace or face).
So I have to play straight up poker and beat her, but that could take 2 hours. There is a good chance I make a mistake due to my fustration, fatigue etc.
Now Im wondering did I do the right thing?
I ended up taking $525 so did I loosely let go of $75?
What are the factors when you decide to chop the pot?
After 10 hours, I have the chip lead at 17K, opponent had 15K. Opponent is a 'goofy' player, I would say poor but she had me completely confused. She would bet out with nothing but over cards (and strongly no weak betting she would risk 25% of her stack on a bluff) but she would also call with any part of the flop. So a maniac.
If I made a hand I would get paid off huge, ie flopped a nut flush, raised min (400) on the flop and got raised (800) so I bet the turn for 2k and got called and then the river brought a pair to the board, so no my hand wasnt the nuts still bet 2K and got called.
Board Js 2s 7s - 5s - 2h - I thought I was going to going to see J2 for the full but was happy to see TJ.
She played the rookie and no one really said anything if she asked the rail for help at the final table. At 5 players she only had 1k but managed to knock out three players and was playing incredibly lucky. She was happy, jumpy obviously she was winning the Bingo game and had a great attitude.
So here we are heads up, I have 17K she has 15k we played for a half an hour at 500/1000 and it went up and down 2-3k but nothing more. She has become really aggressive and I am really afraid to double her up.
Im at 18K she is at 14k.
I'm exhausted, mentally I'm trying to figure out what she has every hand. She doesn't care what I have and is playing 'happy'.
1st place pays - 600
2nd is 375
I offer her a deal, $450 each and we just play for the last $75 and the title.
I know that I am the better player and it is just a matter of time until all of her chips come to my side of the table. But she will not fold to any finesse moves (or pre flop raises) but will fold to a large preflop raise without any cards (she will call with any ace or face).
So I have to play straight up poker and beat her, but that could take 2 hours. There is a good chance I make a mistake due to my fustration, fatigue etc.
Now Im wondering did I do the right thing?
I ended up taking $525 so did I loosely let go of $75?
What are the factors when you decide to chop the pot?
Comments
Sounds like a nightmare situation to me... the power of the bluff is drastically increased heads-up IMO, and you don't really have that weapon available to you. That being said, what you DO have is the possibility of taking all of her chips if and when you actually do make a hand.
I think at the end of the day I wouldn't make a deal if I were you, because of your edge in skill. The reason we put so much time, effort, thought, etc... into poker is because we believe that skill will prevail over luck in the end, whenever that may be. So here we have a situation where we have one skillful player and one novice player, heads-up. Yeah, even though your opponent was a maniac, and difficult to play against, I'd probably axe a deal because you should have the skill to be able to recognize that she's a maniac, and to adjust your own play accordingly.
That being said, the blinds were big compared to the stack sizes, which is why I don't mind chopping the pot against ANY opponent in this spot, either.
In general, factors that determine whether or not I chop:
The size of the stacks
The size of the stacks relative to the blinds
My opponent's skill level
My own skill level at the time (am I playing my best)
The difference between the payouts for the top places
Am I playing for life-changing money
etc...
I think one of the key things though is you've mentioned you were tired, and at the best of times your skill may win out, but with the fatigue invovled it is much less likely
Yep that was her! Oh wait no goofy glasses though!
Im not sure then, given the situation, was this a mistake?
Ofcourse I like to learn from these things so I do appreciate your feedback.
The BIG lesson I really learned was to get my ass into the gym. I had played 10 hours on Friday night (very profitable ring game, and alot of fun) and then I played the tourney (which I took more serious as not being able to rebuy over my mistakes made me analyze everything).... come Sunday I couldn't even take on another game.
I was truly exhausted. The WSOP is a goal within 5 years and I would be dead by day three.
Physical Fitness has a huge impact on my long term mental ability.
BTW, if anyone see's me with a smoke in my mouth give me a kick in my ass!
My short answer: no, this wasn't a mistake. As Chugs pointed out, an amateur has an edge over an exhausted experienced player. And the big determining factor for me here would be the blinds (last mentioned at 500/1K) vs. your stacks (18K/14K). A standard preflop raise would take roughly 20% of either of your stacks. It's bingo time (much to her delight).
As far as my 'checklist' goes, this is what I'd be thinking in your spot:
The size of the stacks: it's the right time for a deal. stacks are close enough.
Stacks/blinds: it's the right time for a deal. The blinds are turning it into bingo.
My opponent's skill level: she's a maniac, but I know how to beat maniacs. I can win this. No deal.
My own skill level: I'm tired, I'm not thinking as clearly as I usually am. Deal.
Payouts/life-changing money: I can't comment on these factors as the value of the money means drastically different things to different people.
Again, making a deal was not a mistake because you were tired and because the blinds were turning it into bingo. If you were playing well and the blinds were still giving you some play, I think it would be a mistake to deal, even if your chip counts were exactly even. You work hard at being a skillful player, so that hard work should be rewarded with a handsome first-place finish whenever it makes sense to go for it. Here, IMO, it makes sense to chop.
Sidenote: the column I submitted for the March issue of CPP is about deals. Whether or not they publish it is beyond my control, but if they do, you might want to check it out. Dave helped me tweak it, and I'm happy with the end result.
:spade: :spade: :spade: :spade: :spade:
:eek:
It sounds to me like she is the weaker player, but she is offsetting her weak play with aggression, which is a good tactic on her part.
From a pure EV perspective, you did the wrong thing. You are the better player with a chip lead. What % chance do you have of winning?
You have 56% of the chips. Assume a 10% "skill overlay" and you have about a 66% chance of winning. That means you have equity of $556. The split you made was $500 for you and $475 for her (you get $450 plus 66% of the remaining $75).
So... you "gave" her $56.
That's the math wonk version.
But, did you do the right thing? I think so.
In my case, for $56 bucks I am likely to be a gentleman and "do the deal."
And... my estimate of "skill overlay" may be too high because the blinds have become VERY large. It feels about right, but it might not be since she appears to be deploying a fairly decent strategy.
You can look at dealmaking as a math puzzle, but it has a human element. There is nothing wrong with making a deal that makes you feel good even if you are giving up some value.
I was just thinking about this the other day... here is an excerpt from my poker log...
I don’t really watch TV, but I have always been a “Survivor†viewer. I think it would be a fascinating game to play and watching always fires my game-brain. Lesson to would be Survivor contestants: cardio fitness matters more than brute strength. There was a challenge in which contestants had to swim down ten feet and pull on a rope to haul a trunk along the seabed. One team, laden with roid-monkeys couldn’t do it. The other team had little problem. The reason? The roid-monkeys had no cardio. They could swim down to the rope, but they could not remain on station long enough to haul on it. The other team has one very fit NYC firefighter who (I suspect) is a runner. He could stay down hauling on the rope for a long time. Is there an application to poker? Occasionally, poker can feel like an endurance sport. I suspect that a high level of cardio fitness will help a person through those long days at the WSOP.
So... going to the gym is OK, but you are better off getting on the treadmill, I think. It will give you endurance.