Was This The Right Play?
Scenario:
I’m in the second round of a tournament -
I’m dealt Qs, 5s in the pocket
Everyone else folds, except for the chipleader at our table. He and I both call the blind to see the flop. I notice the chipleader is getting more aggressive and vocal in the past few minutes (chiplead can do that to a guy!)
Flop: Qd , 4h, 2c
At this point, I’ve got QQ – considering blinds 10K/20K and are going up and I'm small stack (about 110K) – I decide to go all in to be aggressive and push him off whatever he has - I have about half his stack.
– and the chipleader calls me.
Turn: 7h
River: 5c
On the Showdown, I have two pair – Q,Q and 5,5
Chipleader shows a low Straight A, 2, 3, 4, 5 – he caught the Straight on the River.
Here's what I think:
An Analysis of Outs:
An Analysis of Outs:
His Outs:
- Pick up an Ace = 3 Outs [pair of aces]
- Pick up a Five = 3 Outs less the one I have = 2 Outs [straight]
Total Outs = 5 therefore he has 20.3% chance of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
My Outs:
- Pick up another Queen = 2 Outs [trip queens]
- Pick up another Two = 3 Outs [two pair Q,2]
- Pick up another Four = 3 Outs [two pair Q,4]
Total Outs = 8 therefore I have a 31.5% of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
Therefore, even with the admittedly poor Q,5 in the pocket - I made the right play... any comments all? am I correct?
** all percentages from http://www.freepokerstrategy.braveh...oddschance.html
I’m in the second round of a tournament -
I’m dealt Qs, 5s in the pocket
Everyone else folds, except for the chipleader at our table. He and I both call the blind to see the flop. I notice the chipleader is getting more aggressive and vocal in the past few minutes (chiplead can do that to a guy!)
Flop: Qd , 4h, 2c
At this point, I’ve got QQ – considering blinds 10K/20K and are going up and I'm small stack (about 110K) – I decide to go all in to be aggressive and push him off whatever he has - I have about half his stack.
– and the chipleader calls me.
Turn: 7h
River: 5c
On the Showdown, I have two pair – Q,Q and 5,5
Chipleader shows a low Straight A, 2, 3, 4, 5 – he caught the Straight on the River.
Here's what I think:
An Analysis of Outs:
An Analysis of Outs:
His Outs:
- Pick up an Ace = 3 Outs [pair of aces]
- Pick up a Five = 3 Outs less the one I have = 2 Outs [straight]
Total Outs = 5 therefore he has 20.3% chance of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
My Outs:
- Pick up another Queen = 2 Outs [trip queens]
- Pick up another Two = 3 Outs [two pair Q,2]
- Pick up another Four = 3 Outs [two pair Q,4]
Total Outs = 8 therefore I have a 31.5% of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
Therefore, even with the admittedly poor Q,5 in the pocket - I made the right play... any comments all? am I correct?
** all percentages from http://www.freepokerstrategy.braveh...oddschance.html
Comments
If you have him at only a 20% chance of winning the hand. That puts you at 80% chance of winning, not 31% ( 2 handed ).
I'd bet every time with those odds.
8 times out of 10 you double up, not bad!
I couldn't have called your bet in his shoes, good bet in my mind!
Postscript:
I ran the hands on a Hold'em Hand Calculator - the results showing probability of winning the hand were as follows (winner in bold):
Preflop:
Me-42% Chipleader-58%
Flop:
Me-77% Chipleader-23% - I went ALL IN at this point
Turn:
Me-86% Chipleader-14%
River:
Me-0% Chipleader-100%
As you can see - I had a 77% probability of winning post flop - hence I still believe I made the right decision - and I just got rivered - what do you folks think?
I am not sure what position you are in, but I would routinely fold this hand. If the chips are very deep then maybe not, but only when the chips are deep.
I agree. Move in. I can going to call if he bets. So, you could consider inducing a bluff by checking, but I prefer the lower variance play of moving in and taking him off some hands that might draw out on you.
Chipleader is a disaster. You got your money in as a 77% favorite. Yes please.
Um… no. Your chance is what he doesn’t have. You are 77% to win the pot.
Thanks very much for your insightful comments.
you made the right move.
He had no business calling you with the cards he had IMO.
He called, and the odds burned you.
It happens, but only 23 % of the time it does.
Do the same move another 99 times and you win 77 times.
Sounds good to me.
I agree with Dave though, unless you were one of the blinds ( not sure f you were ) I fold this hand, maybe in late position or a blind, that's it for me.
Good luck, next time I guess you double up!