Was This The Right Play?
Scenario:
I’m in the second round of a tournament -
I’m dealt Qs, 5s in the pocket
Everyone else folds, except for the chipleader at our table. He and I both bet the big blind to see the flop. I notice the chipleader is getting more aggressive and vocal in the past few minutes (chiplead can do that to a guy!)
Flop: Qd , 4h, 2c
At this point, I’ve got QQ – considering blinds 10K/20K and are going up and I'm small stack (about 190K) – I decide to go all in to be aggressive and push him off whatever he has - I have about half his stack.
– and the chipleader calls me.
Turn: 7h
River: 5c
On the Showdown, I have two pair – Q,Q and 5,5
Chipleader shows a low Straight A, 2, 3, 4, 5 – he caught the Straight on the River.
Here's what I think:
An Analysis of Outs:
His Outs:
- Pick up an Ace = 3 Outs
- Pick up a Five = 3 Outs less the one I have = 2 Outs
Total Outs = 5 therefore he has 20.3% chance of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
My Outs:
- Pick up another Queen = 2 Outs
- Pick up another Five = 3 Outs
- Pick up another Two = 3 Outs
- Pick up another Four = 3 Outs
Total Outs = 11 therefore I have a 41.7% of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
Therefore, even with the admittedly poor Q,5 in the pocket - I made the right play... any comments all? am I correct?
** all percentages from http://www.freepokerstrategy.bravehost.com/oddschance.html
note: chipleader has A, 3
I’m in the second round of a tournament -
I’m dealt Qs, 5s in the pocket
Everyone else folds, except for the chipleader at our table. He and I both bet the big blind to see the flop. I notice the chipleader is getting more aggressive and vocal in the past few minutes (chiplead can do that to a guy!)
Flop: Qd , 4h, 2c
At this point, I’ve got QQ – considering blinds 10K/20K and are going up and I'm small stack (about 190K) – I decide to go all in to be aggressive and push him off whatever he has - I have about half his stack.
– and the chipleader calls me.
Turn: 7h
River: 5c
On the Showdown, I have two pair – Q,Q and 5,5
Chipleader shows a low Straight A, 2, 3, 4, 5 – he caught the Straight on the River.
Here's what I think:
An Analysis of Outs:
His Outs:
- Pick up an Ace = 3 Outs
- Pick up a Five = 3 Outs less the one I have = 2 Outs
Total Outs = 5 therefore he has 20.3% chance of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
My Outs:
- Pick up another Queen = 2 Outs
- Pick up another Five = 3 Outs
- Pick up another Two = 3 Outs
- Pick up another Four = 3 Outs
Total Outs = 11 therefore I have a 41.7% of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
Therefore, even with the admittedly poor Q,5 in the pocket - I made the right play... any comments all? am I correct?
** all percentages from http://www.freepokerstrategy.bravehost.com/oddschance.html
note: chipleader has A, 3
Comments
if you werent in a blind calling with Q5 is a huge mistake
you only had two outs to improve your hand(at this point you hand the best hand)
two queens
the 2 and 4 help his hand as much as yours
and you both cant share the same outs i.e. the 5
the five only helps his hand giving him the straight( im assuming he had A3 as you never stated what he had)
leaving your opponent with 5 outs 3 Aces and 2 fives
- Not sure, but I think I was small blind and Chipleader was big blind.
- Chipleader had about 400K in chips
you guys are correct in that we can't both have the same out (oops!).. so, the updated outs are as follows:
An Analysis of Outs:
His Outs:
- Pick up an Ace = 3 Outs [pair of aces]
- Pick up a Five = 3 Outs less the one I have = 2 Outs [straight]
Total Outs = 5 therefore he has 20.3% chance of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
My Outs:
- Pick up another Queen = 2 Outs [trip queens]
- Pick up another Two = 3 Outs [two pair Q,2]
- Pick up another Four = 3 Outs [two pair Q,4]
Total Outs = 8 therefore I have a 31.5% of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
I still seem to have a ~11% edge on the guy - am I right or wrong?
Postscript:
I ran the hands on a Hold'em Hand Calculator - the results showing probability of winning the hand were as follows (winner in bold):
Preflop:
Me-42% Chipleader-58%
Flop:
Me-77% Chipleader-23% - I went ALL IN at this point
Turn:
Me-86% Chipleader-14%
River:
Me-0% Chipleader-100%
As you can see - I had a 77% probability of winning post flop - hence I still believe I made the right decision - and I just got rivered - what do you folks think?
If you were actually small blind and him big blind, again you shouldnt have limped. Raise him or fold. After the flop, you were out of position - not a fun place to be when youre shortstacked facing the chip leader.
As for your move, it was far too big a bet at this pot - you couldve gotten the info you needed with a pot sized bet. I just don't like putting all my chips on the line when I have ZERO info on the player I'm up against. Because you didn't raise preflop, you have no idea what BB is holding.
2. Raising with a Q/5 preflop against a chip leader would have given me no new information - he was calling any raise at this point to see the flop - besides, it's tough to raise preflop on a Q/5 in the pocket.
3. Well, it turns out he had an A, 3 - my gambit was to try to push him off his straight draw(or whatever he had) with an all in bet (recall I had 77% advantage off the flop).
4. I do agree that the way to win this hand was to have folded pre-flop, and lived to fight another day.
Thanks for your comments.
2. raising always gives you more info than limping - the fact that you showed preflop strength may have got him to lay down on the flop - He couldve thought you were bluffing and his ace high was good (also, for the record, i've raised with far worse hands than Q5
3. yes you were no doubt the favourite in that situation, but if you ignore the results, i just think its a reckless play - risking your entire tourny with no info on the opponent
Before it is not reckless???
he didnt know how far he was ahead when he made the play, so you cant judge his actions with that information.
If memory serves, the A, 3 was offsuit - another interesting tidbit was the fact that Chipleader went on to win the tournament - by trip aces on the river against a flush draw his opponent had off the flop - Chipleader was very lucky that night...
The reckless play here was by the chip leader, who called our hero's bet.
It worked out for him sure, but that's poker.