How much luck is there in Poker?

MackeMacke
in General Poker Chat
Ok so going to my local club tonight friendly place, fun, fun...

Now like just about everywhere i'm sure there are a few of those people who always spout the cliche "I get so unlucky.. I never hit" " I hate aces, they never win" blah blah.

Usually I just laugh and go along with it.. all in good fun.

But this past Monday it kind of got to me when a couple of those people were at my table and doing their usually act..one chick short with her small stack of 6k or so..like 5 bbs maybe...whining and she says "poker is 80% luck"

Now that I just find silly but w/e..

Age old question i'm sure but... how much "luck" do you think it is?

Comments

  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    As much as I post in the BBV section, I really do think poker is more about skill. Especially cash games or deep stacked tournaments. The key is being able to read your opponents, know their tendencies and play against that.

    Sure they hit their two outter and beat you, but if there are cards to come, you can lose.

    The stock answer is, over a single hand or tournament, luck is a factor, no question. Over time, the skilled players will be ahead.
  • MiloMilo
    I think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:

    Player Skill\Luck

    Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
    Milo/Phill 10/90


    Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    Fck it, I was wrong.

    PokerStars Hand #89354880808: Tournament #656010675, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (125/250) - 2012/11/16 18:50:30 ET
    Table '656010675 112' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: Tatarin01982 (8780 in chips) is sitting out
    Seat 2: biglee79 (15033 in chips)
    Seat 3: bafo777 (35171 in chips)
    Seat 5: weirdo-x (2338 in chips)
    Seat 6: Herlichxy20 (19690 in chips)
    Seat 7: MaxUdav (12968 in chips)
    Seat 8: AMG2479 (10703 in chips)
    Seat 9: djgolfcan (8220 in chips)
    Tatarin01982: posts the ante 30
    biglee79: posts the ante 30
    bafo777: posts the ante 30
    weirdo-x: posts the ante 30
    Herlichxy20: posts the ante 30
    MaxUdav: posts the ante 30
    AMG2479: posts the ante 30
    djgolfcan: posts the ante 30
    biglee79: posts small blind 125
    bafo777: posts big blind 250
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to djgolfcan [Ks Kc]
    weirdo-x: folds
    Herlichxy20: folds
    MaxUdav: raises 250 to 500
    AMG2479: folds
    djgolfcan: raises 1000 to 1500
    Tatarin01982: folds
    biglee79: folds
    bafo777: folds
    MaxUdav: raises 11438 to 12938 and is all-in
    djgolfcan: calls 6690 and is all-in
    Uncalled bet (4748) returned to MaxUdav
    *** FLOP *** [7d 5h Jd]
    *** TURN *** [7d 5h Jd] [Kd]
    *** RIVER *** [7d 5h Jd Kd]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    MaxUdav: shows [Qd Qs] (a flush, King high)
    djgolfcan: shows [Ks Kc] (three of a kind, Kings)
    MaxUdav collected 16995 from pot
    djgolfcan finished the tournament in 734th place
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    Milo wrote: »
    I think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:

    Player Skill\Luck

    Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
    Milo/Phill 10/90


    Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D


    Well that is way off............I can't win important flips.;)
  • Jacen299Jacen299
    Wasn't Phil hellmuth quoted saying if there was no luck in poker he would never lose?
  • MiloMilo
    There is a calculation available to compensate for the importance of the race, based on the % of your stack involved, but I am not just going to give that away . . .
  • trigstrigs
    i posted an article on here somewhat recently that was about a study that went through something like 40,000 hands (could be way more i can't remember) from a bunch of different players and concluded that the skilled players that play a tight aggressive style definitely showed that they were winners in the long term.

    again, hand to hand, game to game, there's luck. skill wins out in the long run though.
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    Then how come I don't win in the long term? :confused:






    oh,,, wait. nvm :-[
  • PocketsTwosPocketsTwos
    Whether you believe you are "lucky" or your opponent is, we all have the same amount of luck...it is the constant in poker.

    Whereas, skill is the variable that makes some players winners, and others losers over the long run...

    From Killer Poker by John Vorhaus...

    "The only thing luck has going for it is that it keeps weak players in the game." and,

    "Everyone is exactly as lucky as everyone else."
  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    About seven...Maybe six in Vegas on weekends
  • MovowellingMovowelling
    Milo wrote: »
    I think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:

    Player Skill\Luck

    Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
    Milo/Phill 10/90


    Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D

    The HOUSE 100/0
  • PopkornPopkorn
    Most people I talk to about poker agree saying in any session/short term it's 60% luck 40% skill. But in the long term it's 90% skill and 10% luck
  • UnknownUnknown
    no luck in poker

    everyone is solid
  • DennisGDennisG
    No luck, it's all 50/50...kind of like winning with aces. You win or you lose.
  • getem76getem76
    I can admit I am the most unlucky player on the face of the earth outside and in poker.....I make my profit by skill not luck, if I left it up to luck I really would never win!
  • TcarnageTcarnage
    You also need to put in the player + game involved to really get an equation..

    If you are playing HU SNG's vs a major fish, you will do a lot better and need less luck than playing the Sunday Million on Stars..
  • Card DeadCard Dead
    Milo wrote: »
    I think the amount of luck is inversely proportional to the skill of the player. With that in mind, I offer the following analysis:

    Player Skill\Luck

    Wetts/BetrthanPhil 90/10
    Milo/Phill 10/90


    Everybody else on these boards fits somewhere in that range . . . :D

    In hands I win 100/0
    In hands I lose 0/100
  • neverlookbackneverlookback
    DennisG wrote: »
    No luck, it's all 50/50...kind of like winning with aces. You win or you lose.

    ummm ya ok.. that would be ok if aces were always 50% to win. they are not
  • asxn557asxn557
    I put this question to Russell Fox who is a CPA in Vegas who writes often on 2+2 about taxes for poker players. We met in June during the WSOP.

    For the lower buyIn WSOP events, he put luck at 30-40%. But he put luck at 100% for $80-$160 NL cash games, because at that level, everyone has pretty much the same amount of skill, and the difference in winning or losing comes down to the cards and luck.
  • JimmyHoJimmyHo
    Any game that is held at a casino involves an element of luck. Some players are able to reduce the element of luck through certain skills (reading players, etc). If you get your chips in the middle an 80% favourite, luck can still crush you.

    The only time luck doesn't play a factor is on the river when you have the nuts.
  • UnknownUnknown
    pokerJAH wrote: »
    Any game that is held at a casino involves an element of luck. Some players are able to reduce the element of luck through certain skills (reading players, etc). If you get your chips in the middle an 80% favourite, luck can still crush you.

    The only time luck doesn't play a factor is on the river when you have the nuts.

    that makes sense, except acquiring the nuts is alot of luck :-\
  • CapoCapo
    over 9000 luck... for sure
  • DrTyoreDrTyore
    Capo wrote: »
    over 9000 luck... for sure

    I like this guy already

    Mark
  • HotRod004HotRod004
    I was 98% favored to win after flopping trip 5s last week and lost..
    ..I have lots of luck but all badddd.....lol
  • moosemoose
    There's good luck and bad luck, so 100% luck?
  • DennisGDennisG
    neverlookback wrote: »
    ummm ya ok.. that would be ok if aces were always 50% to win. they are not

    You win or you lose..two choices..like flipping a coin. 50/50
  • JimmyHoJimmyHo
    HotRod004 wrote: »
    I was 98% favored to win after flopping trip 5s last week and lost..
    ..I have lots of luck but all badddd.....lol

    If you are alive and healthy, that makes you a very lucky person!
  • MiloMilo
    Lotsa luck, just ask Tammi and Sonny . . . but be prepared for projectiles at high velocity.
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