early in a turbo in the BB
blinds: 25/50
i'm in BB with approx. 1650
folded to villain on the button who has me covered with around 2500 - no reads so far as it's still pretty early
villain calls BB and SB folds. i look down at AdJd and make it 150. villain calls.
(pot is 325) flop comes 5xJx7d
i bet 50% pot (162.50). villain calls
(pot is 650) turn is 2d. i bet out 300. villain calls.
(pot is 1250 - i have just over 1000 behind) river is 9x
hero's play? villain's range? advice please.
i'm in BB with approx. 1650
folded to villain on the button who has me covered with around 2500 - no reads so far as it's still pretty early
villain calls BB and SB folds. i look down at AdJd and make it 150. villain calls.
(pot is 325) flop comes 5xJx7d
i bet 50% pot (162.50). villain calls
(pot is 650) turn is 2d. i bet out 300. villain calls.
(pot is 1250 - i have just over 1000 behind) river is 9x
hero's play? villain's range? advice please.
Comments
anybody?
bueller?
EDIT: i guess i'll include my thinking through the hand.
preflop, usually i min raise but since i'm OOP and i feel like i do have the best hand (due to villain's preflop call) i raised 3xBB.
flop, i think i have the best hand still as i'm only worried about possible sets. i don't think villain is slow playing QQ+. i make a standard cbet.
turn, i have to think this is a blank for villain. also gives me added redraws to the nut flush. figured he called flop maybe with a weaker J. he'll probably still call a somewhat smallish turn bet with a weaker J too (KJ, QJ, maybe JT), not to mention it's building the pot for a possible flush card on the river.
river, again i see this as a blank for villain. i don't see him calling flop and turn chasing a gutshot all the way with T8. J9 is a possibility. maybe a flopped set, maybe a weaker J. maybe getting out of line with A7. thoughts?
I am betting flop and turn also but don't know about bet sizes and hope btp comes by.
flop bet i'm fine with. turn bet i'm not so sure.
you would play it differently?
villain has 86....
lol, no range? just soul read?
EDIT: to be clear, villain held 55. his final hand was trip 5s.
Meh, well....I can't see many other hands villain could have here...aside from reading spoiler and, IMO, a badly played set.
Villains range here IMO is (I am not counting 22, as I don't see villain floating the flop often enough):
j9+ = 3 combos
57 = 9 combos
55 = 6 combos
77 = 6 combos
68 = 16 combos
40 combos with 68 being the only draw that gets there.
Reasonable ands we beat J10, JQ, JK = 24 combos (again discounting hands like 78 as they don't call a river bet unless they "put us on AK")
I don't have pokerstove at work, but we are going to be good here about 37.5% of the time. I guess if we add in hands like 88 and 1010, our equity increases, but I doubt villain calls the turn and probably doesn't call anything on the river.
The river I can see b/f a bit, or c/c a 1/2 pot bet. If we check and villain shoves river, I guess it would come down to reads and whether we were checking to induce or to fold to a big bet.