Final Table Spot
Interesting situation at the last Brantford tourny.
7 handed blinds are 10k/20k 3k ante. Sitting with 130k (2nd stack although fairly tight grouping) behind on the big blind. UTG+1 shoves for 47k, UTG+2 who is chip leader (about 170k) and has built his stack quickly playing fairly aggro just flats. Folded to me who must put in 27k more with J9o.
Obviously math is one thing but with a read of strength on the chip leader what is my move?
7 handed blinds are 10k/20k 3k ante. Sitting with 130k (2nd stack although fairly tight grouping) behind on the big blind. UTG+1 shoves for 47k, UTG+2 who is chip leader (about 170k) and has built his stack quickly playing fairly aggro just flats. Folded to me who must put in 27k more with J9o.
Obviously math is one thing but with a read of strength on the chip leader what is my move?
Comments
at a FT we need to hold on to our chips for chip EV and ICM
putting in 20% of our stack at a FT with j9o and I assume oop , is bad news bears.. also, CL's flat is very suspicious (strength)
even with the read on big stack i'm still folding here. wait for a better spot.
We are in the money (top 9) and it's a bounty tournament and I am already free-rolling.
IF we do call and the flop comes AJxr, what is our play?
horrible spot here imo. if i'm villain i'm not putting you on an A as you probably would have reraised preflop to isolate the short stack. you may have a weak A you called with but that just makes me think i can push you off of it here. you could have paired your J but i wouldn't think that's good enough for you to continue.
i guess your best chance to win the hand would be to bet out and hope big stack was calling pre with maybe a low pocket pair that he missed and will fold. however, if i was villain i'd probably raise you on the flop even with air as i don't see you hitting much here.
IF i called preflop (which i wouldn't - if anything i might try to raise/squeeze pre), i'd probably check/fold flop since big stack seems strong and could pretty much push me off a lot of hands anyway.
:-\
Whether we are free rolling or not is irrelevent, our goal is to win and for that you need to keep as many chips as possible when the double up opportunity comes. You are too shallow to speculate.
The other 3% it's a boat.
Btw congrats on taking it down!
Everyone else has like 2-3bb?
WTF how does that ever happen?
Oh, fold pre tho.
10k starting stack and 80 runners.
Avg stack with 7 players is only 115k
They must have been running pretty close to each other.
Not questioning the avg stack, questioning how we get this far into the blinds with the avg stack.
Must have been a very aggro final table........
FT was total nitfest. Old lady and noob were protecting stacks of 2-3BB's trying to move up another $150 in winnings...everything was raise and take it or small stack winning races. I lost at least 2 flips to small stacks while that was going on and folded to a four bet shove with 10's while chip leader..
When we hit 6 handed I finally won a race and took control of the table
BTW, I did fold in the OP spot, but there was a discussion around the table about it that erupted. Big stack caller was shocked I didn't come along in BB and insisted he always intended to check it down (which I took as info that he would definitely pound any flop that happened in the future). The shover won with 55, chip leader showed K10o.
lol at big stack saying he always intended to check it down.
If this was Pinhead, he insta calls with J9 (love ya pinhead). Better spots easy fold.
fyp
fyp more
What makes you think the CL is strong in this spot? You mention that he built his stack quickly playing aggro but that doesn't mean much as a read w/o more info since there's 51k in the pot preflop and he could've got his current stack with just two shoves preflop.
I'd really consider moving in and isolating here. There's 145k in the pot and, if you can get a fold, you're getting like 5.5:1 on 27k. On the flip side, you'd be giving CL 1.6-1.7:1 after you shove but I think that's still a decent amount of fold equity depending on the player, especially live.
Obviously, if I did have a read of strength (re: no fold equity), I'd just muck.
WAT
he has j9o in the BB here for christ sake and theres ICM and $EV (REAL MONEY) on the line
folding is fine and proper.
Your hand doesn't really matter when you're getting 5.5:1. It comes down more to how much fold equity you have rather than your hand.
In regards to the $EV, I doubt the jump from 7th to 6th is significant. I'm looking more at how much I improve my chances of making it to the top 3/winning by taking down this pretty big pot.
Folding is fine but I do ship in similar situations to this (usually when stacks are a bit deeper). I'm just saying I would consider it is as an option here. This final table seems tight to me based on the descriptions and average stack size and I think I MAY have more fold equity than a shove would normally have given my 6bb stack.
and jamming here if you ARE deeper is even worse than being so shallow at a FT
J high FFS
K2s > j9o
its really not even close here.
I don't know what your fixation is with the actual hand strength.
Do you call the extra 27k with J9o if it's folded to you in the BB?
- The pot is 98k and you need to put in 27k. You should probably be calling with any two.
If you knew with 100% certainty that CL was going to fold to a shove, do you shove with J9o?
- You're still just up against UTG in the same situation as before but the pot's got an extra 47k in it so a shove should make even more sense.
The closer your actual fold equity is to 100%, the more a shove would be a good play. If the read on the opponent is that he's super strong and trapping, then obviously shoving is terrible. When I read the hand, I didn't necessarily think CL was strong and I would at least consider trying to isolate.
This makes sense to me. Maybe I'm doing it wrong. But you'd need to give a better explanation of why rather than king high > jack high with no context.
How can you make a read that you don't think CL is strong based on a post?
Flatting in his spot is way, way, way stronger than him (CL) Iso'ing .
Let's actually sit here , and think about his flatting range. TT+ , AQs+ sound good? Throw in some random crap like offsuit BW, and small pairs as well of course, but those are player dependant and in THIS case, they can be included in his range ONLY because it's a bounty tournament.
By flatting, he's (CL) is technically inducing... especially because the table is so shallow. So that's why it screams of strength to most competent players.
do you understand ICM here at all?
Mainly has to do with my experience playing live poker (lots of people play bad and passive) and that this was a <2.5bb shove he flatted in a bounty tournament.
If you're subtly implying I'm not a competent player, that's fine. I'm pretty sure I have a lot more experience and results playing than you do though.
I was bringing up a different way of viewing this spot that I would consider. I wouldn't snap muck is all I'm saying.
I have a basic understanding of ICM but it seems like you might know a bit more about it than me. How are you applying ICM without knowing prize payouts? I was assuming a flat payout structure post-bubble so the minimal money jumps didn't factor much.
Lmao.....if i recall....you fold j9os here but call with 85os
as for this hand...im with wetts in saying, how in the name of poker are the stacks this shallow. Dont think it would ever be possible for this to be the case if i was in the tourney :P
However, normal tourney easy fold......normal bounty....easy fold....super KO bounty.. (ex 200+200=50) so $200 goes to prizepool and 200 for every KO. Id flat and shove any pair....any gutshot, any open ended, any 4 flush flop draw lol.
Otherwise just fold pre and focus on moving up pay spots.....people have to start flying out sooon id assume lol