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Future Edge...
There is something that I see poker coaches on coaching sites do all the time that I'm wondering if its wrong or I'm just missing something.
For example: the pro will be HU with a chip lead with 20bbs vs an 8bbs stack with antes (turbo). He is on the button and dealt 57o and folds because he says the can wait for a better spot.
I'm curious how other winning/experienced players feel about this?
This leads me to want to say, "You don't have future edge if you are folding in +ev spots in the present and in the future"
For example: the pro will be HU with a chip lead with 20bbs vs an 8bbs stack with antes (turbo). He is on the button and dealt 57o and folds because he says the can wait for a better spot.
I'm curious how other winning/experienced players feel about this?
This leads me to want to say, "You don't have future edge if you are folding in +ev spots in the present and in the future"
Comments
I wonder if people trying to fold spots they shouldn't is rooted in this misunderstanding of heads up's winner take all format...or maybe I don't understand it.
I definitely see pros of all types doing it.
What if we change it to 73o or 72o?
if villian has 8bb and we have 20 , we really do need to find a better spot- if we get it in light, and villian gets a hand, we are now behind.
don't think shoving unexploitably works HU all that much. Kx is good, any ace, pairs, broadway, that typa stuff.
min raise folding isnt really an option either
so folding is fine as far as im concerned, but id like to hear the argument you are about to make.
HU is when the whole unexploitable force is at its strongest. When we use nash for mid game cev (chipev) shoving we enter 1 in the payouts because there are no payouts so we are simulating 'winner take all play' because its similar to mid tourney play. But thats a little wrong because we need to add a litte 'ICM' force (we should tighten up slightly for errors sake, because we are never truly 100% cev).
When we are HU and we use nash, we enter 1 because it actually is winner take all, since the winner takes all of the remaining prizepool. So its the most chip ev part of the tourney and is essentially 100% cev.
Unless you have edge on the other player...but does one have edge when they are folding +cev and in cev spots, and will admittedly do that more in future spots.
fuck sakes... sigh
how do u feel about limping on the puck?
But there are certainly marginal spots in ICM situations that we will not take because the other players are wildly busting each other. So this filters to our non ICM game because there is always a slight ICM factor but like I said....not heads....yet pros constantly pass hu spots up, obvious ones they admit are +ev.
you must mean Heads up, otherwise thats quite the derail. Limping is great but not if your this short usually.
i just realized how little i know about HU play... this is good that ur doing this
If he doubles up he has no reason to assume we will still be shoving light. Some do and some don't.
Here's a question I don't know the answer to...if we make a +ev play here is it +$ev or do we have to win to get paid? Because at the final table we get $ money for making +$ev moves right?
Edit: this is not me saying im right, this is something that confuses me!?
Edit2:
So if he decides hes gonna screw us because we are shoving 57o, and he calls with ATC, our 57o ev will go down but our overall ev from our ranges will skyrocket.
He can't adjust his range in such a way that he gains from 57o without losing big time to our entire range.
sorry for not answering faster, I was busy steamrolling my first round of the saturday duel : D
Here's what we can shove unexploitably I guess:
Attachment not found.Attachment not found.
The actual equilibrium is set at 67/48....
If we adjust the bb down 4% to 44% our +ev range shoots to 78% of hands
If bb calls 36.7% of hands ATC is profitable.
He really really has to open up for him to change anything?
-If we shove 80% and get called it's over, you took a 0,1 BB edge and got caught, now you either win or lose, and you're probably not getting it in ahead
-Maybe villain only shoves 40% on you, maybe even less at lower levels, if so shoving 80% seems really bad cause there are better ways to approach the match
-maybe villain doesn't call 4% less but 10% more, maybe he's getting stressed cause it's a turbo and will call randomly because fuck yeah, if he's unstable there are better ways to adjust to that
I just had a mini mind explosion seeing that in order to look at the correct stats we need to be comparing JodaBux.
But first I need confirmation on something so I sent out some emails.
When we look at the equilibrium jam range hu, the bb takes + difference and the button takes a - difference and they add up to 1....but i thought they should be equal.
I can't sort this once I know what the reason behind that is. Its really because of posting the bb I guess but I thought if anything the button had the +ev diff advantage (but its called eq diff on nash so I asked someone).
That part is still subject to not wanting to cause him to open up..but....
Yes but we are talking about players who don't know nash and therefore don't know how to adjust. He will intuitively adjust but it will rarely be anywhere near 44%...
If the players knows nash we will simply shove nash.
My new 'thesis' here is if we are folding hands from the equilibrium jamming ranges, while effectively short stacked heads up, then we have no future edge to make up for folding non negative ev hands.
that said, many pro's making videos does not always make the otimal decisions in every spot. I can kinda justify folding our tiny edge in some spots without knowing the exact math. Not sure how to put it but shoving wider than nash suggests is kinda too greedy. Your opponent is unlikely to have proper push and call ranges so shoving too wide is kinda gambling to get that little bit of extra edge while risking the bread and butter edge you have right now
Finishing an opponent heads-up: sage, nash and chubukov.
(on using nash calling charts) Just found this little quote...these days its not so rare
This thread will remain unfinished for awhile I'm sure......and this could all be wrong.
DO NOT TAKE THIS SERIOUS YET.
This uses JodaBux (JBX): the total ev we make off our entire shove range vs our opponents entire calling range. So rather than thinking about the profits from our given hand were are thinking about the profit from range vs range.
Because we have the edge in the BB at this certain inflection point (around 7bbs), when playing equilibrium shove/fold ranges we can use the nash equilibrium calling ranges because any deviation the button makes from the nash equilibrium shoving ranges will result lowing his JBX.
So there is an inflection point with both players playing nash equillibrium hands where the JBX advantage goes to the BB....and that means a graph can be produced and observed of how and when that cross over takes.
So at this inflection point stack size our net JBX vs. our opponent will be positive and never negative if we are in the BB and we use the nash calling ranges.
Also if this inflection point is true then folding your button to the sb would raise his stack size out of the inflection point and bring the nash equilibrium JBX edge back to even or the buttons favor.
This doesn't mean we will do this always because both players aren't playing perfectly nor are they thinking like this.
Using the value of this spot can only come after analyzing future outcomes with different player strategies and seeing which players are ideal to use this against and which strategy you would take.
???