NL tourney situation
Hey guys,
I've been reading some of the topics lately and I wanted to say that the level of analysis on this forum is going up, in my very humble opinion. (Example: the 'No-Limit vs. Limit' thread...)
So, I thought I'd throw this one out there. It's a specific situation with what I hope will be far-reaching implications... or something.
Last night, down to final 6 of 300 or so in an online NL multi. The table is very lopsided... 3 people have stacks of 100K+, the other 3 have stacks hovering around 10K. I'm in the second group. Blinds are now 2K/4K.
I'm in the BB with ATo. UTG (big stack) makes it 8K. Both of the other big stacks call the 8K, and both of the other small stacks fold.
Fold, call, or push, and why?
Any feedback appreciated, results to follow.
Regards,
all_aces
I've been reading some of the topics lately and I wanted to say that the level of analysis on this forum is going up, in my very humble opinion. (Example: the 'No-Limit vs. Limit' thread...)
So, I thought I'd throw this one out there. It's a specific situation with what I hope will be far-reaching implications... or something.
Last night, down to final 6 of 300 or so in an online NL multi. The table is very lopsided... 3 people have stacks of 100K+, the other 3 have stacks hovering around 10K. I'm in the second group. Blinds are now 2K/4K.
I'm in the BB with ATo. UTG (big stack) makes it 8K. Both of the other big stacks call the 8K, and both of the other small stacks fold.
Fold, call, or push, and why?
Any feedback appreciated, results to follow.
Regards,
all_aces
Comments
I think calling and moving in are about the same thing. (But it depends on your exact stack size, if you started the hand with more than $15K it probably makes a difference.)
What I am really hoping for by folding here is that one of the short stacks faces a "pot-committed" situation from a blind during the upcoming orbit which will bust them. In the current hand, I *don't* believe you're committed to this pot, as ATo is a pretty weak hand to go multi-way with.
Without any other information about this player, a minimum raise from a big stack UTG also smells like a big hand to me. And the two callers could have a wide variety of hands, but their sheer numbers are working against you here too much.
You'd probably do better to fold the ATo here, and wait for a hand which is folded to you and you could have a go when it's possibly heads-up. (e.g. if it's folded to you on the SB or button... likely because the short stacks aren't likely to play the next couple of hands, and if they do you simply fold and happily watch them play.) You ceratinly won't be able to steal or limit the field by betting, but you may be able to "artificially" limit the field by using your position to just watch the opponents' actions in the next couple of hands. However, I'd still favour folding all but very strong hands here over the next 2 or 3 hands, even with the possibility of a limited field.
Furthermore, you are the last small stack to act. Therefore, if the BB comes around to you again (*and* assuming you have more chips than the BB this time around... It's important to know if your exact stack was strictly greater than 10K at the start of the current hand), you'll get the benefit of seeing what the small stacks do during that particular hand, and you may just be able to fold your BB again if at least one of the small stacks moves all-in in front of you.
A different (and easy) way to think about decisions like these is to look at your own decision through the eyes of one of your short stack opponents. Wouldn't they be delighted if you called here? Don't give them the satisfaction. 8)
ScottyZ
If, however, you have a decent enough chip lead on the other folks that you can afford to lose your 4k, then I'd say fold.
I think the wrong play here would be to push. Since you're going to be able to close the betting, I would call, and then see what the flop brings (and fire away if it's friendly).
I think if you are going to call here, you have to bet the rest of your chips on the flop no matter what the flop is. You're definitely committed to this pot after calling pre-flop, so you might as well be the one betting the flop instead of checking and calling. (I hope you are not considering calling pre-flop and then checking and *folding* on any flop.) The only reason to check the flop would be in the hope that it's going to be checked around on all streets. While this is not impossible, I still think betting is the better alternative because you may (although the chances of this may be just as remote) get some hand to fold.
You can't really check even if the flop comes down AAA because you risk missing 2 (pretty much) sure calls if you all check to the last position big stack and he puts in a large bet. 8)
ScottyZ
The only way I could win the thing was to accumulate a whole bunch of chips. I know that this can happen even if I fold and sit on my 6K and maybe get lucky a couple of times, but the possibility of quadrupling up with 10K (since I know I'm going to be called in all 3 spots) as opposed to (likely only) doubling up with 6K was too strong for me to resist.
But as I said, my motivation at that point was to win the thing, or at least get into a position to be able to win the thing. With this in mind, I can *almost* say that I would have pushed with any two cards in this spot. 6th or 4th, no difference to me, and quadrupling 10K would give me a bit of room to manouver.
As for my exact stack size, I'm pretty sure it was 10.5K. The other 2 short stacks were at about 10K even and 12K.
Totally agree. It went against every instinct I had to put ATo against 3 other hands in an all-in situation. I had to think for a long time, and then the decision finally came down to: what do I hope to accomplish in this tournament, given my very short stack?
Absolutely correct. He had KK. The flop came all babies, he bet the minimum on every street, and was called by both players all the way to the river, at which point both players folded. I honestly don't think he was trapping here--he probably just didn't want to get into a big dance with another big stack for all of his chips, when he was (almost) guaranteed at least 3rd place. A cautious, yet sensible, approach to playing big hands in the mid- to late-stages of the final table.
Supamuncher:
That is a reasonable plan of attack, given the fact that I can still get out of the hand with chips left. These chips (only 2.5K), as you know, could no longer be used as artillery; rather, they would keep me alive long enough to fold the 2K small blind and hope that one (or both) of the short stacks makes a decision for all their chips before the BB comes to me again.
I guess what it comes down to--and what I deliberately left out of the initial post--is that I went in with what I knew to be way the worst of it because there was very little difference, to me, between a 6th place and a 4th place finish.
Question 2: If you were in my spot, with my feelings about 6th vs. 4th, would you have pushed? Or, is the best way to win the tournament folding and trying another hand? Also, would you push with any 2 cards here in my shoes? Not sure if I would, but now that I think about it, I might have.
Thanks for the replies,
all_aces
Okay, I guess I misinterpreted your tournament goal. If you are indifferent between 4th and 6th places (Was the prize difference really *that* small between 4th and 6th places in a 300 person tourney? Perhaps a 1 spot satellite?), and only care about getting a decent shot at 1st place, then I think moving all-in is absolutely the right play with an Ace high, and probably is even with 2 random cards.
This demonstrates well the "usual" tournament idea of +EV vs. Variance. If you are trying to sneak into 4th or 5th place, then you are *very* averse to busting out on this hand and you should fold. However, I think based solely on pot-odds (and to some extent the fact that you have a good hand too) calling (or moving in) is probably a +EV play. You're getting around 5.5:1 pot odds on the call (betting 6.5K to win 35.5K); so with random (bad) cards it's probably pretty close with 4 players in, but with AT I think you're good to go here in terms of pot odds alone. So, if you're going for first place with a small stack, I think the +EV play of getting the chips in there is the right thing to do.
Note again the key tournament idea: having the right pot odds alone (i.e. +EV) is okay in some tournament situations (going for 1st place), but not in others (trying to hang on for 4th or 5th).
Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but my original interpretation was based on my assessment of the chances of coming 3rd or better being pretty much zilch. 8) But if you truly didn't care about finishing 4th compared to 6th, I think you made the right play.
ScottyZ
I think the idea of my last post is that you actually probably *did* have the best of it by moving all-in. Having the best of it is another way of saying you had +EV.
However,
1. You may not even want to make a play with the best of it if your goal is survival. (This is a major point from Sklansky's tournament book.)
2. You may even want to take a little bit of the worst of it if your only goal is 1st place.
The second point may have been what you meant by your comment quoted above in this post... you wouldn't have even minded taking the worst of it here. When your goal is as lofty as 1st place, you are basically willing to trade away EV for an *increase* in Variance.
Put simply, it's time to gamb00l!
ScottyZ
I must have misread the initial post, because I had it in my mind that there you'd still have 12k ish leftover after the 8k preflop. My bad. Definately have to fire, if the stack you have left isn't even going to get you through the small blind.
Thinking about it again, you might have almost been better off with 2 little ones than with ATo, just because if there's a raise and two cold calls, your hand is almost certainly dominated. Just mucking through a few calcs in the poker calculator (gawd, I love this thing...), it would seem that 72o is almost 2 times better (assuming you're in there with a couple bigger aces and the KK). Huh...funny, that makes me want to fold it even more.
I would say fold and try another hand.
Well, it was only a $5 + $1 multi, with a very top-heavy payout structure. I think it was like $91 for 6th, $115 for 5th, $150 for 4th. To be honest, I'm just playing these low-limit tourneys for practice, hoping to be faced with as many tough decisions as possible. I've long since cashed out my "real" online winnings, and basically I keep a very small amount of money in my account (less than $500) to play these multis with. If I make it to the final 6 in a rarely played $50 multi or something, I'd have a different approach, because the amount cashed out could go into my 'real' bankroll.
I don't mean to imply that money isn't important to me. It is. As it's been said many times over, it's the way poker players keep score.
But, I'm getting off-topic.
You're probably right, lol. Had I won that pot, I'd still only have approx. 40K vs. 3 stacks that would still (I believe) be more than 100K.
An excellent book. Somebody was slamming it on RGP a while back, but no book can cover everything, and Sklansky doesn't ever say that he's trying to. I had your second point in mind (consciously or otherwise) when I moved in.
SupaMuncher:
Great point. Dave Scharf said something similiar in a post to me a while ago about how I'd be better off--in a very specific situation, I won't go into the details--with TJs than KQ because if I do hit my hand it's less likely to be dominated.
I would have had enough to get me through the small blind had I just called the raise and folded--but just barely. My 10.5K stack became 6.5K after my BB went in, then if I call the raise and fold to a bet after the flop I have 2.5K. The SB was 2K even, leaving me with T500 to wait out one or both of the smaller stacks. In a tournament with better payouts for 4th and 5th, folding to the initial raise or just calling the raise and leaving myself with 2.5K are both reasonable ideas.
Regards,
all_aces
I think you have to lay down that hand as well. Kickers are obviously critical if you are hoping to win a pot with top pair, and since you are low-stacked and won't really be able to bully anyone out of a bet, it's the right move.
Of course in that position you know that time is running out and sooner or later you gotta gamble it, but with all the action in front of you, its probably a safe bet that an ace with a better kicker is out there, in which case catching a 10 as well, or the straight draw would be your best hope, unless 4 suits come up to match your bullet.
I'd prefer waiting for any other hand to make your play, even going in with rags like a 38 special...
AK
A Leafs and my own victory will be sweet.
see you tonight.