advice on a hand

the_mainthe_main
in General Poker Chat
Im UTG at a fairly loose table

Game #286408534: Texas Hold'em Limit ($1/$2) - 2005/01/23 - 22:08:06 ()
Table "Crimson" Seat 10 is the button.
Seat 1: Alabubba ($44.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Russ99 ($37.50 in chips)
Seat 3: the_main ($53.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Wee__dee ($43.25 in chips)
Seat 5: dcs3k5 ($55.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Neal21 ($107 in chips)
Seat 7: Dustinb ($69.75 in chips)
Seat 9: rcrdboy ($55.75 in chips)
Seat 10: StacysMom ($37.50 in chips)
Alabubba: posts small blind $0.50
Russ99: posts big blind $1
HOLE CARDS
dealt to the_main [5s 5d]
the_main: calls $1
Wee__dee: folds
dcs3k5: folds
Neal21: folds
Dustinb: calls $1
rcrdboy: calls $1
StacysMom: folds
Alabubba: calls $0.50
Russ99: checks
FLOP
[5c Qc Kc]
Alabubba: checks
Russ99: checks
the_main: checks
Dustinb: bets $1
rcrdboy: calls $1
Alabubba: calls $1
Russ99: folds
the_main: raises $2
Dustinb: calls $1
rcrdboy: calls $1
Alabubba: folds

i was at a fairly loose table and was confident there would be a bet behind me... i chose to check raise and see where I stood - i was hoping anyone with the flush would 3-bet before the turn
TURN
[5c Qc Kc]
the_main: bets $2
Dustinb: calls $2
rcrdboy: raises $4
the_main: calls $2
Dustinb: calls $2

Do I have to assume I'm beat here? I know I still have out so I call and look to take down a nice pot.... Do I have odds to draw against a made flush here?
RIVER
[5c Qc Kc Td][4s]
the_main: checks
Dustinb: checks
rcrdboy: bets $2
the_main: calls $2
Dustinb: calls $2
SHOW DOWN
rcrdboy: shows [3c Ac] (A Flush, Ace high)
the_main: mucks hand
Dustinb: mucks hand
rcrdboy collected $28.50 from Main pot


any comments appreciated

Comments

  • TredebTredeb
    I haven't been playing long so take this for what you think its worth.

    The reraise on the turn puts up flags for me. It depends on how this player was playing. You mention a loose table so I think I may be inclined to call on the turn. you still have ten outs on the river. Once you miss the out and he bets on the river, its a pretty good chance you are beat and should save your last two bucks.

    That said, you do have pretty good odds on the pot >10 on the river call. I have been burned on hands like this and I have won on hands like this. The times I've lost, I had the same thoughts as you. "probably a flush but the pot is worth the risk" Then I always say to myself later, "If I knew he had the flush, why did I call?"
  • BBC ZBBC Z
    i was at a fairly loose table and was confident there would be a bet behind me... i chose to check raise and see where I stood - i was hoping anyone with the flush would 3-bet before the turn

    I prefer leading out.. there was no preflop agressor, so you can't be sure that someone will bet..
    Do I have to assume I'm beat here? I know I still have out so I call and look to take down a nice pot.... Do I have odds to draw against a made flush here?

    Don't assume you are beat. That kind of board is very easy for someone to make two pair on when they limp with two paints. That being said, I wouldnt want to 3 bet the turn because I'm forced to call a cap (when behind to the flush) and make a crying call on the river.

    As for odds yes. You are looking at a 25% (or so) shot at boating up and the pot is huge. Im too lazy to do the real math.


    any comments appreciated

    Well played.
  • JohnathJohnath
    No real complaints on the play here -- I probably would have bet out the flop but you know the table better than we do.

    I would say though that I strongly disagree with the suggestion (albeit half-hearted) that you fold on the river to one bet - my experience is that you will win against someone's AQo or KQo (or even Q5o!) or one-club chasers far more often than the $2 into $26.50 costs you. The turn raise is not a happy sign, but lots of people will (incorrectly, imho) slowplay KQo on that flop and you'd love for rcrdboy to be pulling that stunt.
  • TredebTredeb
    I strongly disagree with the suggestion (albeit half-hearted) that you fold on the river to one bet

    I agree with your disagreement (If that makes sense), In this case it is worth the 2$ to weed out the chasers.

    My experience is mainly with no limit where the call on the river is a much larger portion of the pot.
  • the_mainthe_main
    thanks for the comments, any more are appreciated...

    I didnt have poker tracker at the time, but looking back his VP$IP (volunitarily put money in pot) was 14.5% - lower than mine (17.8%), which means hes tighter... he also had a win rate of 20BB/100hands over the short 50 hands I played with him....

    knowing this, do you think thats enough to lay it down? after the re-raise?

    BBC Z - ive thought about leading out on the flop... but how would I play it if I get raised there? i think id have to call the bet and check the turn without making the boat - giving him the lead...
    or would you bet out on the turn again and fold to a raise?
    OR 3 bet the flop and fold to a raise on the turn?

    i find myself in this positon a lot (making the set on a 3 to a flush board) and want to come up with some solid ways to play it.....
  • BBC ZBBC Z
    I didnt have poker tracker at the time, but looking back his VP$IP (volunitarily put money in pot) was 14.5% - lower than mine (17.8%), which means hes tighter... he also had a win rate of 20BB/100hands over the short 50 hands I played with him....

    Well you can rule out the trashiest of the trashy hands.. so no Kxo or QTo or Axo... I think the number to look for is the Post flop agression.. Is this guy more likely to call or bet? If he's passive and he bets, it's a flush. If he's agressive it's a flush OR it's top pair or a flush draw or two pair or.....
    BBC Z - ive thought about leading out on the flop... but how would I play it if I get raised there? i think id have to call the bet and check the turn without making the boat - giving him the lead...
    or would you bet out on the turn again and fold to a raise?
    OR 3 bet the flop and fold to a raise on the turn?

    It's all dependant on the number of players coming along for the ride and the size of the pot :). If you bet and he raised knocking everyone else out, it's a clear call down (you've got a 34% chance of winning on the flop). If you got 3 or more players, it's a 3 bet. On the turn it's a raise with 4 opponents.

    NO FOLDING.

    Heads up the pot is offering 8 to 1 after he raises you. On the turn you are getting 5 to 1 for a 4 to 1 shot. I'd probably crying call the river cuz I dont like folding the river with a hand as big as a set but if it's an error, it gets cancelled out by the time I boat up and get an extra bet.




    Edit:
    I forgot, you are holding PRESTO. Raise every street and you will magically win.
  • the_mainthe_main
    ^
    makes a lot of sense...

    well, except that edit ;)
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