When your opponent playing a hand poorly hurts you

SirWatts

This is a hand from a 500FPP qualifier for the Sunday $215 on Stars. It's a frustrating situation where I know my opponent is misplaying a hand and I try to take advantage of it but just end up being forced to lose more chips. I am in excellent chip postion going into the hand (top 10 of 75 or so I think).

Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400)
Table '5120978 3' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: stikum (13580 in chips)
Seat 3: nanny (4925 in chips)
Seat 4: onogod (7545 in chips)
Seat 5: SirWatts (12565 in chips)
Seat 6: bezwee (5452 in chips)
Seat 7: coolmack (7735 in chips)
Seat 8: Tommy Bones (5367 in chips)
Seat 9: TDCWally (23036 in chips)
TDCWally: posts small blind 200
stikum: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to SirWatts
2 folds
SirWatts: raises 800 to 1200
I tend to open a lot more pots once the blinds reach 200/400, espcially with a big stack
2 folds
Tommy Bones: raises 800 to 2000
OK you have a monster, probably KK, but this is still a stupid amount to raise.
2 folds
SirWatts: calls 800
Given the odds it seems I have to try to outflop him
*** FLOP *** [9h 7d 8c]
Now I'm getting better than 2-1 on his last 3400 chips and with 11 outs I have to call all-in.
*** TURN *** [9h 7d 8c] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [9h 7d 8c Qd] [4c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SirWatts: shows (high card Ace)
Tommy Bones: shows [Kh Ks] (a pair of Kings)
Tommy Bones collected 11484 from pot

Maybe I should be happy he gave me the chance to outdraw him with great pot odds but I'd have preferred for him to go all-in preflop and I'd save the extra 4K. Is there anywhere I can get away from this hand or should I just be happy that in the long run when I win these types of pots It will be a huge boost?

Mike

magithighs

You never HAVE to call. If I made a prop bet with you where I will pay you 4 to 1 on a coin flip, would you take the bet? Now I make one catch, where I will only accept your bet if you put everything you own on the bet, would you accept.

The key is that end result is too disasterous to warrant the upside of the bet, in most circumstances.

I happen to think your opponent played it perfectly given his stack size. He HAD to take the risk of ruin, as his stack is quickly depleting and he needs to double up. He wants to give you odds, so he can double up. So a minimum raise does exactly what is intended and the cheese keeps you in the hand.

From my perspective your opportunity is limited by your opponents stack. Once you know he's got a big pair, then you're looking at implied odds of hitting the hand. Even if you take his whole stack it won't double you up and/or change your position drastically. But the downside sucks. And it could have been worse, what if he had AKs? So, I think folding even though the odds warrant the call is better.

Cheers
Magi

SirWatts

After thinking it over more I generally agree with your thoughts, however I still don't like his small re-raise. I don't think his stack is that desperate yet, and the raise is too obviously a trap. It seemed obvious that he had a big hand, and he's letting me try to catch an ace for very little. If I did catch it then he would be very desperate assuming he could even survive the hand (putting him on QQ or KK I could slowplay and put him to a tough decision on a later street if I wanted to). Also, I considered AK but it seemed unlikely. Most people would prefer to get all-in with AK preflop to either take it down right away or guarantee seeing all 5 cards. There's nothing worse then getting outflopped by a random hand like QJ or JT that you shouldn't have given the chance. I think I ignored the possibilility of AA too much though also. It's only 2:1 that he has kings instead of aces so dscounting this possibility and assuming I had 11 outs was a bad idea. It certainly makes the whole situation marginal enough to get out on the flop if I decide I don't want to gamble.

magithighs

I wouldn't be desparate with a 12BB stack either, but I sure would want some action on a big pair. I wouldn't want to scare the pre-flop raiser, especially if I'm on the button and I don't really have to worry too much about someone else wanting to jump in. The only way I push, is if I'm in early middle position and I want to do my best to isolate.

As you mention, he'd chase you out with a pre-flop push. And you are correct that the minumum raise is fraught with risk. If the tables were turned what would you do? Wouldn't you want 12BB instead of 4.5BB? That would bump you to the middle of the pack and into contention. 4.5 just buys you some time for a good hand -- and that's what you have with KK.

Cheers
Magi

SirWatts

The whole "tournaments are about survival" rule is drilled way into my head, and I've been knocked out of enough tournaments trying to get cute with a hand that I'm not sure about this. I guess this is a spot where you're still far enough from the money that taking a chance is justified. Personally I would probably move in a lot of the time and hope to get called by some hands I have beat especially if I've been doing my fair share of blind stealing and have a loose image. If I'm going to take a chance and trap I'd prefer to just call since it looks a lot less suspicious. Maybe I let another hand in the pot this way that I don't necessarily want but at least I'm not giving my hand away.

ScottyZ

I'm not a huge fan of min-raising with big hands, and I'd tend to move in myself in the same spot with the Kings. (Primarily because I'd also move in in the same scenario if I was attempting a re-steal.) However, the stack size of your opponent may be starting to give him a bit of a squeeze. As was pointed out, 12BB is not a short-stack which is in dire straits, but it is around the stack size where it has become "moving time" to some degree. It's roughly the stack size where I would favour a large payoff but risky play quite a bit more often than if I had a typical stack.

I don't see anything incredibly wrong with the way either of you played the hand. The best hand succeeds at getting all of the money in with the best of it, while the worst hand is probably getting good enough odds to take a shot at the pot at each stage.

Calling the pre-flop re-raise knowing that this particular opponent had a monster (i.e. a big pair) is the only close to borderline play, but is probably okay if your read on your opponent is KK or better, and this read is accurate. However, the large chances of AA being in the "KK or better" box may be a concern, depending on your exact read.*

You are attempting to spike a probable 3-outer on the flop getting about 8 to 1 implied odds. On the surface these odds look okay, but the flip side is that even with a "monster hand" read you may not be able to get away from any flop that looks good to you. That is, your implied odds going to the flop are not nearly as good as they appear if it is reasonable that you will flop a lot of losing hands and put more chips into the pot.

Flopping a T means you either flopped under his pair, or outflopped his AK. Flopping an A does the reverse. Of course, if your "monster hand" box on this player is tight enough to rule out AK, then this does not apply.

I suppose one thing to think about pre-flop in this hand is: Am I willing to flop a T and fold?** If so, you are basically willing to rule out AK (or similar) hands for the opponent. In that case, calling pre-flop seems justified by the implied odds, but even still it's awfully close, and depends heavily on how likely it is that your opponent has the dreaded AA within the scope of your read.

ScottyZ

*If you put your opponent on KK or better, then he has a 33% chance of having the Aces.

**Noting that you would not get the right price to chase a two-card 5-out draw.