checkraising mediocre top pair hands
What are the pros and cons of this move. If I flat pre, which lines can I take post and if flatting and reevaluation turn always the best move? Villain has recently moved to our table so no real reads
PokerStars Hand #76975593368: Tournament #526944895, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (625/1250) - 2012/03/10 22:43:53 CET [2012/03/10 16:43:53 ET]
Table '526944895 48' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: RuPrettygirl (87271 in chips)
Seat 2: WillCrofton (37487 in chips)
Seat 3: IRichardI (30154 in chips)
Seat 5: Aussie_star1 (19687 in chips)
Seat 6: elmagicgato (17322 in chips)
Seat 7: Fontanive (64637 in chips)
Seat 8: Litek7 (19339 in chips)
Seat 9: balazspeter (10350 in chips)
RuPrettygirl: posts the ante 150
WillCrofton: posts the ante 150
IRichardI: posts the ante 150
Aussie_star1: posts the ante 150
elmagicgato: posts the ante 150
Fontanive: posts the ante 150
Litek7: posts the ante 150
balazspeter: posts the ante 150
WillCrofton: posts small blind 625
IRichardI: posts big blind 1250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IRichardI [:jc :qd]
Aussie_star1: folds
elmagicgato: folds
Fontanive: raises 1562 to 2812
Litek7: folds
balazspeter: folds
RuPrettygirl: folds
WillCrofton: folds
IRichardI: calls 1562
*** FLOP *** [:5s :qh :10d]
IRichardI: checks
Fontanive: bets 4245
IRichardI: raises 5755 to 10000
PokerStars Hand #76975593368: Tournament #526944895, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (625/1250) - 2012/03/10 22:43:53 CET [2012/03/10 16:43:53 ET]
Table '526944895 48' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: RuPrettygirl (87271 in chips)
Seat 2: WillCrofton (37487 in chips)
Seat 3: IRichardI (30154 in chips)
Seat 5: Aussie_star1 (19687 in chips)
Seat 6: elmagicgato (17322 in chips)
Seat 7: Fontanive (64637 in chips)
Seat 8: Litek7 (19339 in chips)
Seat 9: balazspeter (10350 in chips)
RuPrettygirl: posts the ante 150
WillCrofton: posts the ante 150
IRichardI: posts the ante 150
Aussie_star1: posts the ante 150
elmagicgato: posts the ante 150
Fontanive: posts the ante 150
Litek7: posts the ante 150
balazspeter: posts the ante 150
WillCrofton: posts small blind 625
IRichardI: posts big blind 1250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IRichardI [:jc :qd]
Aussie_star1: folds
elmagicgato: folds
Fontanive: raises 1562 to 2812
Litek7: folds
balazspeter: folds
RuPrettygirl: folds
WillCrofton: folds
IRichardI: calls 1562
*** FLOP *** [:5s :qh :10d]
IRichardI: checks
Fontanive: bets 4245
IRichardI: raises 5755 to 10000
Comments
however if you say you don't do it often and it was a soul read/jedi mind trick then i'll batman you up on that one
It's results oriented because you're judging the value of the play purely by the results... I don't think most players are raising worse than QJo (yes they might open suited connectors, but no worse off suit Qx or Jx) in this position, so why are you defending a hand that's behind his range?
Even if someone is opening 15% here and slamming their entire range you probably only have ~60% equity. So vs. a complete spazz postflop you get it in with 60% equity, and vs. someone reasonable you get it in with like 35-40% equity. You pretty much need 50% of players to be brain dead and shoving with zero equity hands with no pair/no draw. Sure there's going to be a certain % of players like that, maybe as much as 20-25% but that's not going to be enough to make the player profitable.
If you did this with KQ/AQ, you're getting it in with like 65-70% equity vs. brain deads and maybe ~55-60% equity vs. reasonable players.
...they're not taken out of thin air, I used pokerstove and estimated getting it in ranges. Vs. brain deads I used their entire opening range, and vs. reasonable players I had them only shoving gut shots or better on this board. The fact is you just can't magically show a huge profit by calling with a hand that's behind someone's opening range with shorter stacks, no matter how you play post flop.
I'm implying both that people who are not braindead will fold more often, and that when they get it in it will be with better equity, most of the time. Obviously there are exceptions in both cases.
EDIT: Like I said, I don't mind the play at all, but it you can't just ignore pre-flop decisions and isolate post flop. For this type of play to show much of a profit it's crucial that your range of top pairs is at least equal or ahead of his range of top pairs. The fact that he has every combo of KQo and AQo and basically no combo's of QTo or worse is not good for your equity, even when you hit a good flop.
as I said, I won't defend my preflop decision here at all, I regretted it pretty much as soon as I saw the flop since there's really no way I can be comfortable stacking getting stacks in so I'm more or less just guessing.
That said one major problem that I think I havn't put enough work into concerning my game is how peoples opening ranges actually look like. with no more than tops a few 100 hands on villains in decent sized mtts it's really hard to get an accurate understanding of how they think about situations and you have to make so many assumptions. there are guys I feel will 3bet me light every fucking time I open (even though they probably don't) and too often when I see someone 3bet the button in a good spot I'll be like "hah, I can jam my A5s or 66 now for 30 bigs". Spots in which I think I shove a bit too frequently for my own good simply cause I havn't put down enough work on them.
You'll sit there for 20 hands not getting the chance to play anything and suddenly your KJs from the SB looks like the nuts vs a HJ open even tho he's running like 17/9 with a 16% rfi or something. I think I could get a lot better if I put more work into actually learning poker more but right now I'm just so so so much better at finding reasons to call than reasons to fold