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Trivial call?
14 left, no sd's from villain
Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds, 150 Ante, 7 Players
CO: 16,150
BTN: 27,525
SB: 39,727
JodaB. (BB): 17,192
UTG: 8,286
UTG+1: 18,839
MP: 11,781
Pre-Flop: (3,450) J
A
dealt to JodaB. (BB)
2 folds, MP raises to 6,400 Jodab ???
Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds, 150 Ante, 7 Players
CO: 16,150
BTN: 27,525
SB: 39,727
JodaB. (BB): 17,192
UTG: 8,286
UTG+1: 18,839
MP: 11,781
Pre-Flop: (3,450) J
A dealt to JodaB. (BB)2 folds, MP raises to 6,400 Jodab ???
Comments
Thats me
He just put in over 1/2 his stack pre and is most likely hoping for all folds.
You're getting short and with the 180 man payouts being top heavy (I assume this is a 180), just jam it.
If I call, I'm pretty much jamming almost any flop.
Not putting in 30% of my stack to fold most flops.
my .02 and everybody has their own play, no right or wrong, you are the one playing with the other person, your individual tells will be the deciding factor.
obv never calling/folding :arghh:
Calling and jamming all flops is ok.
Not sure what 4x means at these levels but Im not happy getting it in.
I used to think I could flat here and still basically be in the same spot chip wise...but eventually got it pounded into my head that we are just throwing chips away.. I am letting this go and using our upcoming position to jam away.
As smart person once said "when in doubt, fold vs early position and get it in vs late position"
His range is weighted towards hands that crush us or we are flipping against. We may be a 3/2 favourite if villain has kq here, but are unlikely to ever be way ahead.
IMO - Fold >> Jam >> call
Reasoning for folding is at this point I'd rather be the hammer then the nail. AJ is fairly easily dominated buy a good portion of villains range. And we have no fold equity pre or post flop given villain has already put in 1/2 their stack. Lastly, we have no stats about villains steal range, which makes playing for stacks a guessing game.
Jamming is fine also. I don't shove as often as I fold though, and depending on reads (nit = fold, lag = arrr-innn)
Getting it in and stop being a nit
Villian has 7.4 bb to start the hand. Lets forget the fact that he raises 4x since I dont think he will ever fold if we jam. I would expect the tightest to be shoving at least this....prob all pairs, but took out the lowest ones....
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.527% 56.33% 05.20% 1157487792 106746036.00 { 44+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 38.473% 33.28% 05.20% 683784936 106746036.00 { AJo }
So we have 38% against a range that has zero spazz factor and is pretty much the tightest... If we add in some spazz + a few others I think are std from the avg 180 player, we get....
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.932% 47.97% 03.96% 1587083904 130910472.00 { 22+, A7s+, KJs+, Q2s, J5s, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 1: 48.068% 44.11% 03.96% 1459266480 130910472.00 { AJo }
Now this is where I will probably make my error.....
If he were to have just shoved (is this okay to do even?), we'd be calling off 10,031 (villians stack minus ante minus bb) and we would be winning a pot of
3450 + 11631 + 10031 = 25112
So we have 10,031 / 25,112 = 39.95%
So, I think as long as villian isnt the nittiest moron on the planet, then its a +EV shove. Is it the most EV? I dunno, maybe we get a handful of folds from stopngo. I doubt it is much though.
Now I know some people will say that his 4x raise looks like a monster, but I dont think that we can make that conclusion without notes. I mean I know many people will raise 90% of their stack instead of shoving, hoping for a bit extra FE. And I think that this is like the very beginning of that stack size here (if that makes any sense)...
If villian is any sort of a semi-reg, its def a fist pump.
Now, please tear my post apart and tell me how to do this right .... Gogogo
yes lots of people do it and for more reasons than that even...but a random i think is most likely doing it with a medium strength strong hand.
ok , btw the more i read and re learn some of the books ive read, the more right your crazy logic is starting to become
Don't do this math in my opinion, use the nash calculator. :mad:
no i think its not usually a monster...i think its usually mid strong hands like jj tt aq aj etc
no no, not true, many regs id fold aqo
if hes a reg, snap call, and take note!!!
Most certainly not! lol
No no I do use it, but I like doin it this way too. Makes me feel like I understand reasoning rather than just playing with a program. Even though i dont know if its right or not.
Wait, do we have the same meaning of "reg"??
I was refering to Fed's post about it being TT+ and AQ+ because of the raise size....
I dont know if I would be able to put weighted range to it just based on this sizing. Without notes, the sizing could mean nothing, or it could mean everything.
another type only does this with weak hands and mostly when the are on atc. this not only means they are weak but makes their shoving ranges stronger.
few regs balance this kinda of thing...
if you can note them on it its gold
Villain is likely bad given bet sizing. More often then not they are just hoping to steal the blinds here with a medium to decent PP (88-jj) or like AQ/KQ. Someone who plays like this is generally a poor post-flop player and is afraid of getting out played. That being said, given villains stack and the size of the pot, it i likely going in on the flop anyway and we may have end up with the right odds to call whether we hit or not. Ergo, if you are gonna call pre, you better be willing to get it in on most any flop....so why not just get it in now.
My feeling on villain, they are scared money and won't want to play flops. Their raise sizing isn't so much as steal but more likely fear. If Darb doesn't have ANY stats on them, they are unlikely to be a reg...unless he doesn't have a HUD (which I doubt). Yeah I know there are thousands of players blah blah, but he is enough of a reg to at least have some hand history on a bunch. As such, I would prefer to keep it smaller vs them and avoid playing for stacks when we are likely only flipping.
So I fold and find another spot to punish them.
And I agree with Darb, had this been a reg they are likely a very bad reg. And if they are raising higher with stronger holdings it would be completely exploitable. However, if they do this once and a while with a wider range to balance, it is harder, as there is the chance of being fairly far ahead.
But without reads, I am leaning towards fold.
the voice of reason!