180man - 12 left

djgolfcan · February 2012

Villain makes a bigger than average raise from EP. This screams small to mid pockets to me. Should we take what we think is a flip ?

PokerStars Hand #76365240949: Tournament #524213105, $4.10+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2012/02/28 13:40:49 ET
Table '524213105 14' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Ivanesz (49876 in chips)
Seat 3: sandro8505 (12294 in chips)
Seat 5: Maksim717 (30255 in chips)
Seat 7: TChL (10094 in chips)
Seat 8: djgolfcan (14384 in chips)
Seat 9: Berryboyn (29248 in chips)
Ivanesz: posts the ante 75
sandro8505: posts the ante 75
Maksim717: posts the ante 75
TChL: posts the ante 75
djgolfcan: posts the ante 75
Berryboyn: posts the ante 75
Berryboyn: posts small blind 400
Ivanesz: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to djgolfcan [Qc Ks]
sandro8505: folds
Maksim717: raises 2400 to 3200
TChL: folds
djgolfcan: ??

Unknown · February 2012

villains raise should make you want to fold

Hobbes · February 2012

darbday wrote: »

villains raise should make you want to fold

Yup.
Unless I've seen him raise/fold before.

Hellmuth's Mole · February 2012

I personally fold there. I don't think it's a weak raise as he's going after the blinds of the big boys at the table. I'd be more expecting to see AK tabled there which puts you far worse off than a flip. And are you really looking for a flip with 18 BB's?

I don't see any way that raise is coming with KJ or worse.

Cerberus · February 2012

Hobbes wrote: »

Yup.
Unless I've seen him raise/fold before.

How recently and how often? If he just did this the previous hand, or within the last orbit, I say he's got a monster and is hoping someone was paying enough attention to think he's stealing.

Also, what HM said.

STR82ACE · February 2012

Fold. Doubt you're racing here often enough to make it worth a call.

Richard~ · February 2012

even if we were to flip here a lot of the time that would be really bad for us ICM wise, you'd have to think he's folding a decent % to make the play worth it

Unknown · February 2012

Cerberus wrote: »

How recently and how often?

Hobbes wrote: »

Unless I've seen him raise/fold before.

it is true our notes could show he 4x folds as a std. but almost always it means he 1) wants to play stacksies and 2) doesn't want to see a flop.

So we can assume pretty much zero fold equity and almost always be right I think.

And because of the implied range, which is med hands he wants to show down, and are rarely if ever less than kqo ....we are not flipping here, we are beat almost always

some % of fold equity would tip the scales for us but there isn't nearly enough

Hobbes · February 2012

After a rethink:

If dj shoves, he's calling 11k into a 20k pot. I doubt if he's going anywhere.

djgolfcan · February 2012

I realize he is never folding. I am just wondering if this is a spot we are willing to risk it and try and double up ?

Unknown · February 2012

djgolfcan wrote: »

I realize he is never folding. I am just wondering if this is a spot we are willing to risk it and try and double up ?

not at the expense of our roi% dropping

Hellmuth's Mole · February 2012

djgolfcan wrote: »

I realize he is never folding. I am just wondering if this is a spot we are willing to risk it and try and double up ?

I know what you're saying but 18 BB's is enough for me to wait for better spots.

Also when taking a shot like you're describing I actually find better luck making that play with suited connectors (or short gapped) like 89,9T,TJ where I can still have small pockets flipping but not get dominated playing Ax or Kx against better holdings.