200NL: Got there... or did I?
Kind of a fun hand. Villain is 15/12 with a 58% fold to 3B/53% fold to c-bet. He's playing at least 16 or more tables at the moment, surely a reg. Only notable hand with us is one where he called my 3-bet BvB with AJo, but nothing that interesting.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) -
UTG+1 ($290.56)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($81)
MP3 ($392.71)
CO ($327.12)
Hero (Button) ($241.83)
SB ($200)
BB ($184.99)
UTG ($125.15)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 4
, 6
5 folds, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, CO calls $13
Flop: ($39) J, 3, 8
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $19, CO calls $19
Turn: ($77) 8
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $40, CO calls $40
River: ($157) 5(2 players)
CO bets $250.12 ($165 effective) (All-In)
Hero...?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) -
UTG+1 ($290.56)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($81)
MP3 ($392.71)
CO ($327.12)
Hero (Button) ($241.83)
SB ($200)
BB ($184.99)
UTG ($125.15)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 4
, 65 folds, CO bets $5, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, CO calls $13
Flop: ($39) J
, 3, 8(2 players)CO checks, Hero bets $19, CO calls $19
Turn: ($77) 8
(2 players)CO checks, Hero bets $40, CO calls $40
River: ($157) 5
(2 players)CO bets $250.12 ($165 effective) (All-In)
Hero...?
Comments
Or I guess option 3 would be he was planning to bluff any heart on the river.
He has an 8
If he could be value-shoving worse it wouldn't be a fun spot at all :P. This would be among the worst lines possible for an 8 to take, not to mention that the only 8s he will have are suited ones, and 8x of hearts will c/r the flop almost always, leaving only 8x of clubs combo's. He only have a few reasonable ones (9c8c, 8c7c, very few others), and I don't see why he wouldn't c/r the turn, and if he didn't he absolutely wouldn't donk shove river when the flush gets there and I can conceivably have it.
In general yes, vs. me slightly less so because I 3-bet a lot, but given that we're slightly deeper and this particular villain doesn't have as much history with me because we play different hours most days, I think he flats almost always.
Oh for *#%!'s sake! Are you #$*&ing kidding me?
Trips is not likely because he would be turning his hand into a bluff when he could check call or make a thin value bet
Flush draws with overs would check raise flop and try get it in?
QQ+ etc 4bets pre mostly but would often check call the river etc. and not turn into a bluff by jamming.
Set mining hands should be out of the question?
fold to 3bet 53% needs to be a large sample but I imagine you haven't really not 3bet this guy...but i think it suggests he doesn't really call vs 3bets other than to not get run over and to sometimes trap
He prob has some mid suited heart type hands here for deception, but almost always JJ?
He prob check raise the flop or turn with hearts sometimes.
El foldo?
This river shove? Not necessarily, I don't think you can assume that at any level by default. Some players will be balanced but I think there's a lot of spots where people are just pure nuts or pure air.
this
In all honesty, the more I think about it, the river overjam seems like a steal. He might be thinking with all the possibilities on that board it may not be that hard moving you off a hand especially one like you have.
Although I still see quads here.
Also that jamming jj here almost turns his hand into a bluff because villain is getting paid off vs flushes by check raising, and never really by worse (maybe 8x hands?) , and sometimes might fold out weaker flushes....
and V's range is not so strong that villain would want to jam a full house when a flush hits..
but if we can't assume hes balancing with air then id fold still i guess :-\
Good analysis. That's more along the lines I'm thinking.
His combo's of flushes here is really really small. Nearly all combo's of flush draws will c/r flop here, especially nut flush or combo draws when he's out of position, especially with my flop sizing. When he look at the hearts out there, it's really hard for him to have too many flushes. The 3456 of hearts are all out there, so the lowest hearts he could have are 8h7h an 9h8h, both which are pair + FDs that almost certainly c/r flop, and if they don't they're one of the least likely combo's to donk shove river given that if he holds those I basically can never have a lower flush (regardless of the fact that I actually did). The next lowest heart combo's are 9h7h and Th9h, both which c/r flop or turn for sure. QhTh isn't a likely holding, but it would again c/r flop. AhKh would 4-bet pre. That leaves AhQh and AhTh and KhQh, all which are very unlikely to just ck/call 2 streets OOP given that they're all NFD or 2 overs + FD (KQ is the most likely to ck/call flop I'd say). I think that most dry flush draws will c/r the turn because the 8 pairing is actually a decent card to represent, and he's usually going to be looking for some fold equity somewhere with those draws, and I think that's one of the nut cards to get it from.
So nearly all of his flush draws are going to c/r flop or turn given the board texture and him being OOP. He might have 1-2 combo's of flushes that get to river like that, but then we can discount them further for donk shoving the river, so he probably only shows up with 1 combo of flushes by river ever.
Now what about 8x hands that he's playing for value? Well that's pretty unlikey too because he's only going to play suited 8's, so he can only have 8hxh or 8cxc. Again for the reasons I talked about those hands are super unlikely for him to have, and it'd be suicide for him to jam 8cxc on the river like this, and super unlikely he would just call turn again. 8hxh is slightly more likely to play river like this but infinitely less like to just call on the flop.
So what kind of hands make sense? As some people said JJ is a fairly reasonable holding, he might c/r some % of the time, but I think he slowplays flop a fair bit with it, and then if he does call flop he's never c/r turn with a boat. It seems reasonable to donk jam on the river to look bluffy and make sure flushes don't hero fold to a river c/r or something. Something like T9s not hearts or QTs not hearts is very reasonable for the reasons BTP posted. He could even turn Jx into a bluff some of the time, not everyone would consider it but I think the odd tricky thinking player might. The important thing though is that his value range is just ridiculously small. It's JJ (which we have 3 combo's if he plays it like this 100% of the time), and maybe 2 combo's of flushes. We only need to be good here 30% of the time, so if he only had ~5 combo's of value hands, he only need to be bluffing 3 combo's of hands. So even if he only plays 1.5 combo of T9s like this, half a combo of QTs, and turns something else into a bluff a small % of the time, it's a profitable call.
I thought for a bit just because it was such a strange line but called expecting to be good quite often. He showed 77 no heart.
what kind of hands do people flat 3bets with pre?
I'm not sure if he "should" be showing up with 77, it really depends on what he thinks of my tendencies and such. I don't think it's the most braindead hand to be showing up with here. I'm pretty much at the top of my range and it's kind of a tough spot so I don't mind it.
Depends on the person, some people flat like AQ+/TT+ only, some flat nearly any pair and AJ+/KQ//QJs/KJs, some flat any suited ace, some flat a lot of mid suited connectors. Depends on a lot of things but I'd say mostly hands that are either ahead of the villains 3B range or hands that play well post flop. If someone's not 3Bing that much it doesn't really matter how well it plays post flop when you're 100BB deep or less I don't think cuz you're not going to be able to make them fold the best hand very often.
Did not expect that.