suited connector analysis
I'm playing in a satellite tournament at my house the other day when this hand comes into play. I am in the re-buy period with an average stack, this is early in the tournament, blinds are 10/20. Re-buy is $5 for your initial stack (1000) and the initial buy-in was $10, there is one re-buy and one add-on at the end of the re-buy period. Three people will likely gain entry into a bigger $100 entry tournament, all 22 players remain.
I am UTG with 10c7c (1100)- Raise to 80
Button calls (1050)
SB calls (2100)
BB calls (940)
Flop 10h 7d 6s
SB checks
BB checks
I bet out 185
Button folds
SB raises to 400
BB folds...
I respect the play and the bet from the Small blind, I'm thinking overpair right away as he is not prone to playing junk cards. Of course, he could be making a play at me. Set? Straight? Crap, what should I do? Why did I get myself into this hand in the first place???
Comments please...
stp
I am UTG with 10c7c (1100)- Raise to 80
Button calls (1050)
SB calls (2100)
BB calls (940)
Flop 10h 7d 6s
SB checks
BB checks
I bet out 185
Button folds
SB raises to 400
BB folds...
I respect the play and the bet from the Small blind, I'm thinking overpair right away as he is not prone to playing junk cards. Of course, he could be making a play at me. Set? Straight? Crap, what should I do? Why did I get myself into this hand in the first place???
Comments please...
stp
Comments
I think I play this the same way regardless and reraise all in. If there is unlimited rebuys then this is a very easy push and only a little harder IMO if there are limited rebuys. Based on your initial read (not playing junk cards)you are probably a big favourite here against something like A10.
What are you doing raising 7Tc UTG, anyway??
Couple of things: (1) You WILL take the re-buy and the add-on because they represent and overlay (original stack for 1/2 price).
This is not unlimited re-buys. The probaly way to look at this tournament is T3000 for $20. Thus, speculationing because you are "protected by the ability to re-buy" is not a correct notion. Thus, I don't like raising UTG with T-7s. But, I don't hate it either and if I am to step out of line it will be with precisely this type of hand.
Ding!
A flopped straight is possible. A flopped set is possible. It is, however, very likely that I am ahead and my opponents are drawing thin.
I like this play. Mike Caro taught me: "Do what they expect you to do."
Hmmm... a C/R. I have to pay 215 into a 915 pot.
It seems I have to at least call. Should I re-raise? I have 835 left. If I move in I will expect him to call. He will be facing 620 into a pot of 1120. It is, technically, enough to give him bad odds on any draw that he has, but it's veru close if he has a straight draw.
I probably move in. I can still re-buy (note from my earlier comment -- this does NOT mean you should push all small edges because your re-buy number is limited) if he does bust me.
Calling and then moving in on the turn is OK too. The reason to call, however, is to give yourself an escape valve if you think you are beat on the turn. I can't imagine what card can come that will convince me to lay down do I might as well move him in now.
If you are behind after the flop, he could have TT, 77, 66, or 98.
If he has TT, you are a HUGE underdog(945:1)
If he has 77, you are a very big underdog(10:1)
If he has 66 or 98, you are a big underdog(5:1)
His raise to 400 is a very good raise if he has TT or 77, as it makes you think about raising all in as a BIG underdog. It also forces you into a tough decision if he has 66 or 98, as you are getting close, but not quite the pot odds to call. If you do, he is a big favorite to take your money. Even if you get lucky and make your draw, he will still have just under the average stack size left.
If he has an overpair, his raise is a big mistake on his part. He is a very big underdog to catch a set(10:1).
The only other hand I could see him calling on the flop is 54 suited. If this is the case, he is a 2:1 dog, and your raise all in make it a close decision for him.
I would suggest that since you still have another 2K at your disposal after the hand, reraising all in is a good move, unless you are seriously trying to save yourself from making the rebuys. Judging the cost of those rebuys, I am thinking this is a non issue. Also the blinds are still low, so even if you lose, you are bleeding a little but it is not lethal.
If you are worried about being behind, calling is not bad either. Saving ammunition for when a better battle scenario comes along can be a good thing when the name of the game in tourney play is survival.
I felt when he bet that much that maybe he had a straight...maybe. How can I fold now though, I have made such a nice move raising with 107s UTG and I've flopped top two pair, YES! I must be the greatest poker player of all time!! Well, I'll raise him all in and show everyone how great my play was "surpirse I have top 2 pair!!". I flip over my 107s and he shows me 89o
Thanks for your comments
stp
(just look at the squirrel)
Now his initial check is a poor play with a set, but lots of players will do this. The pre flop call, then check then raise screams set of tens to me. If you thought this guy was fairly tight, but with the ability to change gears, then you may be able to put him on 77 or 66. But his call of your raise pre flop if he is pretty tight would make it hard to put him on 9T. The fact that's what he actually had makes it look like a pretty loose call pre flop considering he is in worst position ...he had clearly loosened up. This is the type of call someone like Negreanu would make to see a flop.
Like Brunson says, I defy this guy to get away from his set with a pre flop raiser. Without, and with bottom set, well it gets easier to throw away a set. He must have put you on an overpair or big cards. I know you put him on an overpair. But that checkraise on the flop and smoothcall preflop screams set to me if he was actually playing pretty ttight. In a freezeout, I would have definitely thrown away my cards. In a rebuy situation it would have been hard.
His raise on the flop is interesting. A lot of players would have smooth called your bet on the flop to trap, and moved in on the turn. He had the stone cold nuts on the flop, and there werent many hands out there that could have caught up that much with one card. I cant see how he could have put you on a set, and then have to worry about the board pairing. I normally like betting the flop when you hit a straight, but in this case, I dont mind giving a card at all. On the other hand, his raise would make it hard to put him on a monster, as too many novice players will play this hand too slow. Maybe this guy is pretty good.
This was a tough one to play, and I think I would have got broke here too.
Very well played Zithal, I woulda went broke too!!!!