How often are we ahead post flop ?

djgolfcandjgolfcan
in MTT Strategy
Re-buy period is over.

PokerStars Hand #74511159775: Tournament #503394100, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (75/150) - 2012/01/26 11:14:47 ET
Table '503394100 8' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: djgolfcan (9795 in chips)
Seat 2: 64-SeReGa-64 (8947 in chips)
Seat 3: Fenixman21 (7173 in chips)
Seat 4: morgan-mea77 (1909 in chips)
Seat 5: csacsa7800 (8619 in chips)
Seat 6: BORRAURELIO (2320 in chips)
Seat 7: Ceremisov888 (7385 in chips)
Seat 8: Oms23Bob (7898 in chips)
Seat 9: tikillo10 (4892 in chips)
djgolfcan: posts the ante 20
64-SeReGa-64: posts the ante 20
Fenixman21: posts the ante 20
morgan-mea77: posts the ante 20
csacsa7800: posts the ante 20
BORRAURELIO: posts the ante 20
Ceremisov888: posts the ante 20
Oms23Bob: posts the ante 20
tikillo10: posts the ante 20
Fenixman21: posts small blind 75
morgan-mea77: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to djgolfcan [Ah Ac]
csacsa7800: folds
BORRAURELIO: folds
Ceremisov888: folds
Oms23Bob: folds
tikillo10: folds
djgolfcan: raises 300 to 450
64-SeReGa-64: folds
Fenixman21: calls 375
morgan-mea77: folds
*** FLOP *** [Tc Jd Qc]
Fenixman21: checks
djgolfcan: bets 1000
Fenixman21: raises 1000 to 2000
djgolfcan: ??

Comments

  • betrthanphilbetrthanphil
    gonna tell you what I notice in almost all your posted hands.....your cbets are WAYYYYYYYYY to big. your like potting it here, then you don't know what to do when you get raised? thats not very good at all. your cbet should be 40%-60% of pot. So if you bet 540 this hand would be way easier to play if he's gonna pull this min raise stuff. We have the nut redraw so I'm not folding. Id flat and see a turn and see what he does. But I'm prob not folding.
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    This board is really draw heavy, don't we want to bet bigger to make the draws pay or even get them to fold ?

    We are going to call his raise to try and hit 4 outs ? What hands are we ahead of here ?
  • UnknownUnknown
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    What hands are we ahead of here ?

    aq kq aj at kj 9x kt k8 99 kk q8 88 and some air
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    darbday wrote: »
    aq kq aj at kj 9x kt k8 99 kk q8 88 and some air

    What hands are we ahead of that would re-raise us on that flop
  • UnknownUnknown
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    What hands are we ahead of that would re-raise us on that flop
    all that want to see where they are at
  • betrthanphilbetrthanphil
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    This board is really draw heavy, don't we want to bet bigger to make the draws pay or even get them to fold ?

    We are going to call his raise to try and hit 4 outs ? What hands are we ahead of here ?

    4 outs? we have Ac? and raise to make draws pay? we have the big draw. Never bet pot to make draws pay and put yourself in a difficult spot. Inflating the pot isn't good for anyone but the guy with the nuts.

    edit....Oops misread this flop thought it was all clubs. But still point is don't bet so much to put yourself in this spot. Now that I know its not all clubs I check call this flop. I prob check call till river then decide there way to do. maybe fold river if he 3 barrels.

    Also he could have a Kxcc hand, even kjcc with that he is clearly gonna raise this flop but we have a hand that will play good against that as 2 of his Aces are dead, he can't hit a K, and if he hits a club he has to dodge another club.
  • HammerDadHammerDad
    Meh, difficult spot. I probably fold>call>raise. Raising allows villain to play their hand to play their hand perfectly by folding all hands we do beat and jamming anything that crushes us.

    If we call, we are now in a bloated pot with a touch more than a PSB left in our stack, so we are likely committed to the hand. And if we are behind, we likely have 9 outs max.

    Villains range likely doesn't include AK, AQ, QQ or JJ as those are highly likely to 3 bet pre. I also discount 1010 a lot here as it is likely to 3 bet pre. Villains range consists a lot of KQ, KJ, k10, K9, QJ, J10, 109 and maybe 98. Of those hands we are only ahead of 1/2 of them, and never all that far ahead. I can't see villain going crazy here with AJ or AQ or K10 given they are never a real favourite.

    Folding here may seem weak/tight, but I wouldn't fault you if you did.
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