One of my worst folds ever??
Game is 2/3/5 NL 500max at Garden City, San Jose, CA. All effective stacks are $500ish.
9 handed and I have only played at most an orbit at the table.
UTG raises to 15-20 (can't recall exactly) and I call with AJo, button calls, BB calls.
Flop AA9r (pot 55-75, call it 65)
Checked around.
Turn AA9xr (pot 65).
UTG bets 40, I call, button raises to 90 or so, BB flats??, UTG mucks and I call thinking wtf? Button is an unknown and seems to be super confident. I have no read on BB.
River AA9xx (xx are under the 9 and do not make any straights) (pot 375).
Checked to button who instabets 100, BB thinks for 30 seconds and calls -- WHAT THE EFF?. I think for a minute and read button as extremely strong on both the turn and the river. Still no read on BB. All that makes sense to me is that button has 99 or turned a set for a FH and BB has the other ace. Button's bet sizing (almost a min raise on the turn and definitely not a bluff size on the river) scream of value to me. Mathematically, I'm only risking $100 to win $575 but I cannot figure out how I can ever be good in this spot.
**Note that the reads on the button are that overall he is a typical passive/under-rolled NL player, that his body language is very confident and his bet sizing indicates to me that he is trying to eek out as much value from the hand as possible.
I mucked the best hand, but I still can't see how I am good there even 15% of the time which I need to be to make the call. I was obviously under-repping my hand and I snap call one bet on the river, but a bet and an overcall really fucked me sideways.
Note that I rarely take this line in this hand, so I guess I screwed myself out of the pot.
After playing with these players for a while I was kicking myself (and obv still am a bit) for mucking in this spot. I think my read vs the button of being very confident was dead-on.
So, what did they have?
9 handed and I have only played at most an orbit at the table.
UTG raises to 15-20 (can't recall exactly) and I call with AJo, button calls, BB calls.
Flop AA9r (pot 55-75, call it 65)
Checked around.
Turn AA9xr (pot 65).
UTG bets 40, I call, button raises to 90 or so, BB flats??, UTG mucks and I call thinking wtf? Button is an unknown and seems to be super confident. I have no read on BB.
River AA9xx (xx are under the 9 and do not make any straights) (pot 375).
Checked to button who instabets 100, BB thinks for 30 seconds and calls -- WHAT THE EFF?. I think for a minute and read button as extremely strong on both the turn and the river. Still no read on BB. All that makes sense to me is that button has 99 or turned a set for a FH and BB has the other ace. Button's bet sizing (almost a min raise on the turn and definitely not a bluff size on the river) scream of value to me. Mathematically, I'm only risking $100 to win $575 but I cannot figure out how I can ever be good in this spot.
**Note that the reads on the button are that overall he is a typical passive/under-rolled NL player, that his body language is very confident and his bet sizing indicates to me that he is trying to eek out as much value from the hand as possible.
I mucked the best hand, but I still can't see how I am good there even 15% of the time which I need to be to make the call. I was obviously under-repping my hand and I snap call one bet on the river, but a bet and an overcall really fucked me sideways.
Note that I rarely take this line in this hand, so I guess I screwed myself out of the pot.
After playing with these players for a while I was kicking myself (and obv still am a bit) for mucking in this spot. I think my read vs the button of being very confident was dead-on.
So, what did they have?
Comments
oops..edited
No. Button read was super strong and I was right on my read, but I forgot to factor in 2 key points in interpreting my read.
I said it was bad. I still feel it was bad. I still don't see how I am good very often in this spot, but it is definitely a call when I consider a few things I left out when thinking about the hand at the table.
FH is always a possibility with nines but I can't see those monsters.
I'm going with Ax vs KK on a hunch. You folded winner.
Im going by bet sizing tells not personal reads though.
Too bad you didn't have more history on these players to know if they bet their made hands.
Now on another note. I seem to sense a boiling bunny type of relationship going on here with one piggypie123. Have the authorities been alerted?
I'm fack calling here in a snapping kinda way, as I think we're good here alot more than 15%.
1. The button is really excited about his hand, BUT he is a bad/weak player and he thinks any ace is the complete nuts in this spot.
2. I REALLY under-repped my hand which gives makes the BB have a good spot to call with 2 pair.
I think that I really leveled myself into a fold because, if anything, I am usually over-repping my hand in spots and basing reads on reactions to LAG play. I can't recall why I decided to play this hand in this manner, but it was to my ultimate downfall.
Good read Hellmuth...button had A4, BB had KK.
I think that if I am truly repping a hand and see this action from these players it is a much easier fold. Playing it as I did it should have been an easy call.
Live and learn.
The pigman has lost it all over the place.
Blind squirrell.
It will make me a little more happy when piggypie123 likes that post.
fyp
heh, funny that's what I read
Personally I bet flop, bet turn and jam river. I also probably 3 bet pre with AJ on the button. But hey, aggro much....lol
Getting 5 to 1, I never fold there.
Mis-read your post here so I have to edit to agree.
IMO, AJos UTG+1 is a fold on most tables, save and except one with a good number of weak/tight on it.
Did that today online with QQ @ Titan. They have software that lets you fold with F1 but I was 6 tabling and it brought up the wrong table. QQ on the button and I open fold. THIS GUY IS TIGHT!
first day I used table ninja, i open folded AA 3 times while 24 tabling. Tbf I played 5K hands that day.
Your giving way to much credit to people your sitting with, depending more their age or time at the table you should know who is robbing and who has it.