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shovins?

UnknownUnknown
in MTT Strategy
ok actually apperently this is the hand in question i think?

theres 15 left here i believe....

this is a standard shove for me though i wouldn't dream of folding?


Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds, 150 Ante, 8 Players

UTG+1: 3,970
JodaB. (MP1): 33,990
MP2: 7,081
CO: 1,337
BTN: 13,511
SB: 7,980
BB: 6,150
UTG: 3,908

Pre-Flop: (3,600) 7clubnormal.gif 9clubnormal.gif dealt to JodaB. (MP1)
2 folds, JodaB ???
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Comments

  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    darbday wrote: »
    ok actually apperently this is the hand in question i think?

    theres 15 left here i believe....

    this is a standard shove for me though i would dream of folding?


    Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds, 150 Ante, 8 Players

    UTG+1: 3,970
    JodaB. (MP1): 33,990
    MP2: 7,081
    CO: 1,337
    BTN: 13,511
    SB: 7,980
    BB: 6,150
    UTG: 3,908

    Pre-Flop: (3,600) 7clubnormal.gif 9clubnormal.gif dealt to JodaB. (MP1)
    2 folds, JodaB ???

    What's your shove range in this spot?
  • UnknownUnknown
    GTA Poker wrote: »
    What's your shove range in this spot?
    it depends on some table conditions...anything from bw, pairs, aces and a few suited connectors.....to sometimes almost atc

    depends on my image and who's left to act

    but im playing almost pure chip ev with 15 left ???
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    With the blinds as high as they are, any one of the short stacks behind you can call profitably, knowing that 10-18 make the same money. So why not try to double or even triple up ?

    You already have the final table average stack, why risk so much on a marginal hand ?
  • UnknownUnknown
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    With the blinds as high as they are, any one of the short stacks behind you can call profitably, knowing that 10-18 make the same money.
    yes but they don't play like that...they play tight here
    djgolfcan wrote: »

    You already have the final table average stack, why risk so much on a marginal hand ?
    its not really marginal in this spot i don't think..its debatable but with everyone calling so tight i think its a +ev push, and we're a far cry from first i think.

    out of the stack likely to call most of them won't really put a dent in us. the bigger stack is going to be really tight.

    and people who will call will often shove up with Ax or Kx or pairs and i think we have good equity because we aren't as often dominated compared to shovin a lesser ace

    range will be close to this...


    Attachment not found.
  • betrthanphilbetrthanphil
    I don't like risking here when we don't need too. button shove sure....more profitable but from ep it can't be profitable....if so barely.
  • VekkedVekked
    everyone after us has rat stacks with like 5BB except one 9BB, rip that shit, gotta be fine at this level. $215 turbo 2x chance you can fold maybe.
  • trigstrigs
    button, co, and maybe hj i'm pushing here. probably not sooner. granted i'm most likely thinking results because sb always has AA here.
  • Richard~Richard~
    Vekked wrote: »
    everyone after us has rat stacks with like 5BB except one 9BB, rip that shit, gotta be fine at this level. $215 turbo 2x chance you can fold maybe.

    but...but...BB is almost guaranteed to call us for a flip. doesn't that make it a bit of a negative freeroll? Or do we expect fold equity at times here?
  • reibsreibs
    shove is fine here imo, but I def miss these spots in game a lot I think.

    And yes, you will get folds here sometimes from bb.
  • VekkedVekked
    Richard~ wrote: »
    but...but...BB is almost guaranteed to call us for a flip. doesn't that make it a bit of a negative freeroll? Or do we expect fold equity at times here?

    def expect FE at this level unless he's a reg I guess
  • Richard~Richard~
    aight, then shove away
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    Vekked wrote: »
    def expect FE at this level unless he's a reg I guess

    What about the cut-off ? He has less than a BB, he has to call with anything, doesn't he ?
    And our hand is not ahead of a random hand.
  • UnknownUnknown
    Vekked wrote: »
    $215 turbo 2x chance you can fold maybe.
    only if its btp's money tho
  • CerberusCerberus
    I'm totally out of my league here, but let me toss out a thought...

    Buddy has <1BB, thus if everyone folds and he calls, we take down the difference between his stack and the BB, making it pretty much a free shot at busting him. You win, right on, life's good. You lose, no problem there either and he doesn't exactly have a new lease on life. Also, it allows you to shove the next monster and get snapped off by the 5-9BB stacks thinking you're bullying.

    Or am I just totally out to lunch and off base here?
  • UnknownUnknown
    betrthanphil wrote: »
    I don't like risking here when we don't need too. button shove sure....more profitable but from ep it can't be profitable....if so barely.
    see this it what i think is crazy about players, i think its surely profitable, but ill listen that its a fold...but not that its 0 or less ev....i think thats absurd :p
  • UnknownUnknown
    Richard~ wrote: »
    but...but...BB is almost guaranteed to call us for a flip. doesn't that make it a bit of a negative freeroll? Or do we expect fold equity at times here?
    its not a flip with antes and blind....and no general consensus in this field is that you need to think about moving up pay spots....???.....obv non regs think that..but all the regs will fold 2 bbs in the sb or bb on the money bubble... so this isn't the bubble....but its bubblish :)
  • UnknownUnknown
    trigs wrote: »
    button, co, and maybe hj i'm pushing here. probably not sooner. granted i'm most likely thinking results because sb always has AA here.
    no the bb has 72o here...trust me.... everyone else...82o
  • Richard~Richard~
    darbday wrote: »
    its not a flip with antes and blind....and no general consensus in this field is that you need to think about moving up pay spots....???.....obv non regs think that..but all the regs will fold 2 bbs in the sb or bb on the money bubble... so this isn't the bubble....but its bubblish :)

    then the regs are most likely retarded
  • UnknownUnknown
    reibs wrote: »
    shove is fine here imo, but I def miss these spots in game a lot I think.

    And yes, you will get folds here sometimes from bb.
    confirmed giant fold eq..


    if you miss this spot...take the amount of hand you shove....and subtract it from the entire amount of hand you should shove.....the hands left over, is your error...or your room for improvement ev wise.....

    when people see a spot they miss like 97s if this is the case...i think they forget that they prob miss 98s T9s, J8s etc
  • UnknownUnknown
    Richard~ wrote: »
    then the regs are most likely retarded
    agreed...taught by the same people they are ^-^
  • UnknownUnknown
    Vekked wrote: »
    def expect FE at this level unless he's a reg I guess
    i disagree.....there just a ton of fe regardless

    also ...when i make this shove...im def taking into regs on the table...if remember correct there weren't any....but they miss these calling spots all day
  • UnknownUnknown
    djgolfcan wrote: »
    What about the cut-off ? He has less than a BB, he has to call with anything, doesn't he ?
    And our hand is not ahead of a random hand.
    did you stove 97s vs a random hand....sure its not ahead but its like 49.8 percent. and surely he sometimes fold and theres giant pot odds were getting... also it makes everyone else less likely to call
  • UnknownUnknown
    Here is a link to the hand set up on the nash calc


    HoldemResources.net: Beta ICM Nash Calculator


    here are some adjusted calling ranges but i think they are quite conservative....anyone can argue them though since the percents are there...

    Attachment not found.


    here is the plus ev shoving range....97s will be a mistake to fold i think, fairly big....but that being said, just because I can prove it with math, doesn't mean a person with giant winning experience is wrong...thats the tough part :-\


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  • reibsreibs
    darbday wrote: »
    confirmed giant fold eq..


    if you miss this spot...take the amount of hand you shove....and subtract it from the entire amount of hand you should shove.....the hands left over, is your error...or your room for improvement ev wise.....

    when people see a spot they miss like 97s if this is the case...i think they forget that they prob miss 98s T9s, J8s etc

    Yeah I miss a few of those most likely.... Mostly due to not always taking my time studying the other factors of the situation before looking at my hole cards and stack size. Mass tabling is still somewhat new for me....
  • VekkedVekked
    darbday wrote: »
    i disagree.....there just a ton of fe regardless

    also ...when i make this shove...im def taking into regs on the table...if remember correct there weren't any....but they miss these calling spots all day

    You'd know better that I would about the regs at this level, so they could be bad enough that you even have FE vs. them. They are getting >2:1 in the BB tho so I would assume most competent players to be calling 90% or so, which is significant because having a guaranteed showdown with 9-high is pretty bad for our equity in spots like these.
  • VekkedVekked
    The 30% BB call seems way too tight to me.
  • UnknownUnknown
    I adjust all of the bb calls. I think this is conservative and he def folds more but only because hes not a reg. I think 90 is fine for a reg but its not 100%.

    I usually drop my lower offsuit aces because i think randoms calling ranges are ace heavy ....and ill usally add suited kings and sc's in their place, so i think this is close to my original range

    also I see the power of the suited kings since the bb is likely to call, so it plays better than our lower sc's. I do think all the calling ranges are loose to though.

    Attachment not found.


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  • betrthanphilbetrthanphil
    I just don't like the risk of chips here from ep. I don't think these are like normal MTTS where you need to try to position yourself in the top 3 once you make the money. Moving up the money ladder is huge. Im not saying don't take shots at increasing your stack, but I don't see this as being a good spot to do it. OBV we could careless if the CO with 1bb calls and we lose thats not the issue. We have an above average stack of the FT. We don't need to be tossing our chips in the pot with every suited connectors or 1 gapers we get. I think in the long run in this spot its more profitable to fold, protect or stack a little bit and get a lil more aggro closer to the FT bubble. I think our stack will serve more purpose there than risking it here, maybe losing the chance to be aggro on the FT bubble. Just some rambling in there but think I said what I wanted too lol
  • UnknownUnknown
    tony guerrara suggested to me we have a slider, on one side its pure chipEv ie. we take anything that is remotely plus ev, and on the other its our $ev or icm where we cut out any marginal spots.

    Here i think we are in pure cev mode (as the payouts are flat) and i expect to show up to the ft with about 40-60k. Almost every hand im dealt is going to be +ev. Here its about 1/3, but from lp its going to be more than 1/2.

    anyways i think we can quantify the discussion like this

    im all the way to the left....btp is more towards the right obv.....its different than deciding a shove is profitable....



    maximal risk minimal risk

    cev
    0
    <jam?>
    $ev
  • betrthanphilbetrthanphil
    My point is there will be a better spot in the next orbit or 2. that will be both more chip ev and $ev. Ill take that spot over this one.
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