Feb 5 Poker Journal
February 5, 2005
I will list the “general interest†stuff first and the “poker nerd†stuff second. This is "stream of consciousness" so my head may be where ... well, you know.
General Interest Comments
New Orleans has changed: Ralph has booked our flight and hotel. The original schedule had us playing back-to-back no-limit hold’em tournaments. However, the tournament schedule has now changed. We will be playing a $1,500 limit hold’em followed by a $2,000 no-limit hold’em. This means that the poker bankroll is going to take a $10,000 USD hit over the next fine months. I have it, but it is of an amount that is daunting. Get 0 return on my investment (a distinct possibility) and my poker bankroll will drop out of the comfort zone that I have been in for the last couple of years.
This means two things to me: (1) I need to drop down in level and play a little smaller. For a couple of months I need to churn my bankroll at a lower risk and lock up about another $4K USD before I venture back into the big games; and (2) I must not spend poker bankroll on anything other than poker. I have a tendency to spend poker money on silly things like home renovations whenever I get “fat and happy.†So, I am hereby reminding myself that, although I feel fat and happy right now, there is a good chance that I will feel “broke and depressed†in the middle of July. I am planning ahead and trying to ensure that I do not dip below the “depression line†in July.
Discipline: I have been writing down every calorie that I eat since Christmas. The goal is to lose 10 lbs by my birthday (March 15). I even relate this back to poker: “If you do not have the discipline to eat properly, how do you expect to have the discipline to play poker properly?†So far? Well, I have mixed results. I have lost about six pounds so I am nicely on track to meet my goal. But, I still do not have the discipline that I ought to have. Earlier this week I exploded in what I have dubbed the “Tim Horton’s Cookie Incident of 2005.†I gobbled up 1400 calories of Tim Horton’s cookies (and one buttertart) in a fifteen minute span. Thank God I am running a lot. But, the battle continues.
Back in the poker business: I am working at re-launching my old site www.CanadianPoker.com. My friend Murray (yes, he owns a piece of the adventure) is my webmaster. I will do content and sales and he will do “art and technical.†There is no grand plan here, just trying to maintain my status in the poker world. I am also working on creating “Team Canuck Poker.†There will be a small line of logowear poker and, maybe, some online sponsorship of TCP. Foremost in my mind is that I am doing this because (1) It’s fun and (2) I can control it. It will not become overwhelming because I have it in hand and I will not allow it to become “too much.â€
Poker Nerd Content
High-variance v. low-variance: I have spent a lot of time thinking about “big pot v. small pot†in no-limit poker. Now that Harrah’s New Orleans has changed one of the tournaments to limit hold’em I have been pondering that the limit-equivalent is? Than answer: high-variance v. low-variance. So, instead of asking, “Is this big-pot or small-pot poker?†Ask, “Do I want to play this hand for maximum EV or for minimum variance?†Almost invariably in tournament play, you want the minimum variance. But, if you get really small stacked or nicely big stacked you may want to switch into “max EV mode†and say “to hell with variance, this is a positive expectation situation and I will take advantage of it.â€
I spent a lot if time thinking about this after a hand at this week’s limit hold’em tournament. In early position a young gun (YG) raised. I had him as an O-tuna with no real bluff in the arsenal. So, holding Q-Q in the cutoff I simply called. I was interested in seeing the flop and playing that hand at that pound. The BB called. The flop was 3-5-6 rainbow. BB checked, YG checked, and I bet. I felt strongly that YG had a big ace and that I had the best hand. BB check-raised. Ugh. I called him down and he showed 7-4 offsuit for the win. Although I was trying to play low-variance, I screwed up. Pre-flop, my thinking was wrong. Very wrong.
Let’s assume that I had YG in the right box. If I three-bet pre-flop then he will only re-raise with a BIG hand. In other words, I will be able to significantly narrow his range of hands and I will be able to fold my Q-Q – even in limit hold’em – when I am beaten by A-A, K-K, or a big ace that hits an ace on the flop. By flat calling I was trying to save one small bet. Instead, I let the BB into the hand and lost a lot more than that.
The lesson? The first, and best way to lower variance is to limit the field. Variance in a heads up pot will almost invariably be lower than variance in multi-way action. From the standpoint of EV, I wanted the BB in with 7-4o (YG told his friend he has A-Ts). But, from the standpoint of variance, I want the BB out. I should have raised pre-flop. Yes, I lose an extra bet against A-K when an ace comes on the flop, but that it not nearly as bad as losing a bunch of chips against the BB who you encourage to come in with two random cards. So, if your stack will look bleak if you lose a river-pot (a pot played to the showdown) then LOWER THE VARIANCE and attack! If I had been a huge stack, calling might well have been the better play.
When seeking to lower variance, what factors should you consider?
(1) Number of players in the pot. In my Q-Q hand, with the 7-4o in the pot my Q-Q wins 59% of the time. Heads up against A-To, my Q-Q wins about 71%. Since the 7-4 will win 14%, his presence hurts my Q-Q A LOT more than it hurts that A-T. The number one factor when considering lowering your variance is the number of player in the pot. So, ask yourself: Can I limit the field?
(2) Will I be able to fold if I am behind? Back to my Q-Q hand – I called down the BB because I thought he has some bluff in the arsenal. It was hard to fold against him given how ragged the board was. As a second bad play in the hand I never re-raised his check-raise since if he had four bet me I think I could have folded the turn. Instead, I choose to call him down (higher variance than attacking early and folding).
(3) Can you minimize the cost of your draw? This, I think, applies to position more than anything. The very reason that you cannot play oddball drawing hands from early position is that you cannot control your costs. If you think you can “draw cheap†you might be more tempted to enter/continue the hand. This is, however, a small factor.
I will list the “general interest†stuff first and the “poker nerd†stuff second. This is "stream of consciousness" so my head may be where ... well, you know.
General Interest Comments
New Orleans has changed: Ralph has booked our flight and hotel. The original schedule had us playing back-to-back no-limit hold’em tournaments. However, the tournament schedule has now changed. We will be playing a $1,500 limit hold’em followed by a $2,000 no-limit hold’em. This means that the poker bankroll is going to take a $10,000 USD hit over the next fine months. I have it, but it is of an amount that is daunting. Get 0 return on my investment (a distinct possibility) and my poker bankroll will drop out of the comfort zone that I have been in for the last couple of years.
This means two things to me: (1) I need to drop down in level and play a little smaller. For a couple of months I need to churn my bankroll at a lower risk and lock up about another $4K USD before I venture back into the big games; and (2) I must not spend poker bankroll on anything other than poker. I have a tendency to spend poker money on silly things like home renovations whenever I get “fat and happy.†So, I am hereby reminding myself that, although I feel fat and happy right now, there is a good chance that I will feel “broke and depressed†in the middle of July. I am planning ahead and trying to ensure that I do not dip below the “depression line†in July.
Discipline: I have been writing down every calorie that I eat since Christmas. The goal is to lose 10 lbs by my birthday (March 15). I even relate this back to poker: “If you do not have the discipline to eat properly, how do you expect to have the discipline to play poker properly?†So far? Well, I have mixed results. I have lost about six pounds so I am nicely on track to meet my goal. But, I still do not have the discipline that I ought to have. Earlier this week I exploded in what I have dubbed the “Tim Horton’s Cookie Incident of 2005.†I gobbled up 1400 calories of Tim Horton’s cookies (and one buttertart) in a fifteen minute span. Thank God I am running a lot. But, the battle continues.
Back in the poker business: I am working at re-launching my old site www.CanadianPoker.com. My friend Murray (yes, he owns a piece of the adventure) is my webmaster. I will do content and sales and he will do “art and technical.†There is no grand plan here, just trying to maintain my status in the poker world. I am also working on creating “Team Canuck Poker.†There will be a small line of logowear poker and, maybe, some online sponsorship of TCP. Foremost in my mind is that I am doing this because (1) It’s fun and (2) I can control it. It will not become overwhelming because I have it in hand and I will not allow it to become “too much.â€
Poker Nerd Content
High-variance v. low-variance: I have spent a lot of time thinking about “big pot v. small pot†in no-limit poker. Now that Harrah’s New Orleans has changed one of the tournaments to limit hold’em I have been pondering that the limit-equivalent is? Than answer: high-variance v. low-variance. So, instead of asking, “Is this big-pot or small-pot poker?†Ask, “Do I want to play this hand for maximum EV or for minimum variance?†Almost invariably in tournament play, you want the minimum variance. But, if you get really small stacked or nicely big stacked you may want to switch into “max EV mode†and say “to hell with variance, this is a positive expectation situation and I will take advantage of it.â€
I spent a lot if time thinking about this after a hand at this week’s limit hold’em tournament. In early position a young gun (YG) raised. I had him as an O-tuna with no real bluff in the arsenal. So, holding Q-Q in the cutoff I simply called. I was interested in seeing the flop and playing that hand at that pound. The BB called. The flop was 3-5-6 rainbow. BB checked, YG checked, and I bet. I felt strongly that YG had a big ace and that I had the best hand. BB check-raised. Ugh. I called him down and he showed 7-4 offsuit for the win. Although I was trying to play low-variance, I screwed up. Pre-flop, my thinking was wrong. Very wrong.
Let’s assume that I had YG in the right box. If I three-bet pre-flop then he will only re-raise with a BIG hand. In other words, I will be able to significantly narrow his range of hands and I will be able to fold my Q-Q – even in limit hold’em – when I am beaten by A-A, K-K, or a big ace that hits an ace on the flop. By flat calling I was trying to save one small bet. Instead, I let the BB into the hand and lost a lot more than that.
The lesson? The first, and best way to lower variance is to limit the field. Variance in a heads up pot will almost invariably be lower than variance in multi-way action. From the standpoint of EV, I wanted the BB in with 7-4o (YG told his friend he has A-Ts). But, from the standpoint of variance, I want the BB out. I should have raised pre-flop. Yes, I lose an extra bet against A-K when an ace comes on the flop, but that it not nearly as bad as losing a bunch of chips against the BB who you encourage to come in with two random cards. So, if your stack will look bleak if you lose a river-pot (a pot played to the showdown) then LOWER THE VARIANCE and attack! If I had been a huge stack, calling might well have been the better play.
When seeking to lower variance, what factors should you consider?
(1) Number of players in the pot. In my Q-Q hand, with the 7-4o in the pot my Q-Q wins 59% of the time. Heads up against A-To, my Q-Q wins about 71%. Since the 7-4 will win 14%, his presence hurts my Q-Q A LOT more than it hurts that A-T. The number one factor when considering lowering your variance is the number of player in the pot. So, ask yourself: Can I limit the field?
(2) Will I be able to fold if I am behind? Back to my Q-Q hand – I called down the BB because I thought he has some bluff in the arsenal. It was hard to fold against him given how ragged the board was. As a second bad play in the hand I never re-raised his check-raise since if he had four bet me I think I could have folded the turn. Instead, I choose to call him down (higher variance than attacking early and folding).
(3) Can you minimize the cost of your draw? This, I think, applies to position more than anything. The very reason that you cannot play oddball drawing hands from early position is that you cannot control your costs. If you think you can “draw cheap†you might be more tempted to enter/continue the hand. This is, however, a small factor.
Comments
I think the difference in Limit hold'em is that quite often because it becomes so easy for people to draw out on you, as you said limiting the field is the key. Don't even let them in and have the oppurtunity. Even getting paid of by one person is good enough in a tourney, you don't need to have the 3-4 people do it, it's not worth the risk unless you're working with a deep stack
I've started playing Limit SNG's lately and will consider "high vs. low variance" now.
Why not just fold after he check-raises you? It's a relatively small pot and you're potentially dumping 2.5 BB, possibly drawing dead, or very thin. The check-raise could a) mean pair, straight draw -- b) top pair, no kicker -- c) two-pair, or d) straight. Out of all the possibilities, only one puts you in a good spot.
It does feel like an extremely weak play, but you've taken the strength out by cold-calling the orginal raise and not defining your hand. And, you For me it's like limping aces or kings in NL and knowing you could be a slight favourtie or huge dog on the flop, facing an all-in bet. Once you've chosen a fall-line pre-flop, it's really hard to change directions. No harm in admitting it didn't go your way and just packing up.
He's not going anywhere. And, if you do want to see the river, then why not raise him at the turn? You're spending the same amount as call, call. If you get re-raised, you can fold as you know you're drawing dead. But, you've shown the table you will "bluff" a turn-raise and fold. I think that will pay off, if you can hit a big hand later.
Just some thoughts.
Cheers
Magi
Your ahead and know it but by flat calling the YG you give the BB 5:1 pot odds.. If blinds are small it's auto call range..
Gotta make it 3 bets there YG will flat call... A or K hits flop it's trouble. If YG checks flop I may check behind him.. I know in EP most will only raise A or K so it's death...
rag flop I bet out
but then I'm no pro