pca sat spots..

DennisG

These are a couple late game spots that I kind of hated..

530 buck sat to the pca me pkg worth 15k ..2 pkg guaranteed. 3rd gets 1k, 4th gets 380 bucks.

First spot...5 handed.

PokerStars Game #72614629367: Tournament #485502844, $500+$30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (600/1200) - 2011/12/22 16:09:04 PT [2011/12/22 19:09:04 ET]
Table '485502844 4' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 3: DennisBC (35616 in chips)
Seat 5: Traveller99 (34648 in chips)
Seat 7: Borso888 (50044 in chips)
Seat 8: ryb1 (17604 in chips)
Seat 9: davidv1213 (60088 in chips)
DennisBC: posts the ante 150
Traveller99: posts the ante 150
Borso888: posts the ante 150
ryb1: posts the ante 150
davidv1213: posts the ante 150
Borso888: posts small blind 600
ryb1: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DennisBC [Ac Kd]
davidv1213: folds
DennisBC: raises 1200 to 2400
Traveller99: folds
Borso888: folds
ryb1: calls 1200 he has been short awhile, and mostly shoving so this is kinda odd I thought..presume med ace, suited king, broadway..sm pairs
*** FLOP *** [9d Jd Ks]
ryb1: checks
DennisBC: bets 3600
ryb1: calls 3600
*** TURN *** [9d Jd Ks] [Ad]
ryb1: checks
..............................?


Second hating spot..

PokerStars Game #72613626805: Tournament #485502844, $500+$30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (500/1000) - 2011/12/22 15:46:05 PT [2011/12/22 18:46:05 ET]
Table '485502844 4' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 3: DennisBC (36368 in chips)
Seat 5: Traveller99 (13780 in chips)
Seat 7: Borso888 (67962 in chips)
Seat 8: ryb1 (25627 in chips)
Seat 9: davidv1213 (54263 in chips)
DennisBC: posts the ante 125
Traveller99: posts the ante 125
Borso888: posts the ante 125
ryb1: posts the ante 125
davidv1213: posts the ante 125
Borso888: posts small blind 500
ryb1: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DennisBC
davidv1213: raises 1000 to 2000
DennisBC: raises 3000 to 5000
Traveller99: folds
Borso888: folds
ryb1: folds
davidv1213: raises 49138 to 54138 and is all-in

............??

betrthanphil

jamming turn in first one, he only has 11k left obv we arent folding top 2 with nut redraw. At worst we are drawing to FH and FD.
second one we are 5 handed and need to get top 2 for the seat. If your going to fold I wouldnt 3 bet here. Always think of your next move...like chess. Have a plan, if your 3 betting here you should be calling the all in. If you dont want to call the all in then flat instead of 3 bet.

DennisG

betrthanphil wrote: »

second one we are 5 handed and need to get top 2 for the seat. If your going to fold I wouldnt 3 bet here. Always think of your next move...like chess. Have a plan, if your 3 betting here you should be calling the all in. If you dont want to call the all in then flat instead of 3 bet.

are you 3betting and getting it in here? big stack hasn't really been out of line, hasn't 3 bet much, hasn't been applying a terrible amount of pressure.. That being said, he has folded to a reraise or two since being 6 handed. I think it is pretty obvious we are racing at best?

betrthanphil

depending how i feel about villian, but if your thoughts mean what they do to me, id prob flat. But as I said Im not gonna 3bet fold.

Unknown

i think i check the first hand back...the only think we are worried about is a gutshot hitting. and if we check it will feel like we are pot controlling a king and scared of the ace. I think you stack him on the river a lot ..???

Hand 2- not 3betting because i think youre too deep, but flatting and hoping a shorty jams....also that playing ip vs villain this deep this late makes it a lil tough on villain

windbreaker

First hand...seems like an obvious get it in spot. Not like you plan to check back turn and fold to a blank river shove.

Second hand...first, the opponent is David Vamplew...ept london winner. Once you three bet, this is usually a call. It's not a situation where you're racing at best. He could easily shove 88 or 99. When you include these pairs to his range of Aq+, 88+ you're gonna get the right price given the dead money.

The only way this could be a fold is if you have been a nit, and this is your only three bet in the last hour or such. If your image is somewhat active at all, I prefer a call....sorry you lost to AK.

DennisG

Thanks all, and yeah, first hand was a little self playing..but just hated it.. He showed up with q10o and we doubled him up...as said, I wasn't getting away from it..it just felt ugly..

Second spot..I hated it, but I did fold it, figuring again...racing at best (which is suspect now..at that point he seemed very in line) Figured I still had 30 bigs...lots of room to play yet. I definitely see flatting as being the better option now..stupid hindsight.

Unknown

DennisG wrote: »

Thanks all, and yeah, first hand was a little self playing..but just hated it.. He showed up with q10o and we doubled him up...as said, I wasn't getting away from it..it just felt ugly..

what are we hoping he will call with though?

windbreaker

darbday wrote: »

what are we hoping he will call with though?

This makes it sound like all worse hands will fold...simply not true. Any worse two pair hands aren't folding. Most good combo draws aren't folding...eg. KdQs.

Also you aren't folding to most river, means that you're essentially giving your opponent a total freeroll on the river - they shove when they hit, and check-fold to you on the river. The board is so wet, it makes our actual range of hands relatively wide.

Since our actual hand is at the top of our range of hands, and our opponents can call with worse, we should almost always bet this turn at this stack depth.

Edit - Just looked back...obv we have Kd. He still can have AxQd KxQd, etc.....point is still the same

DennisG

darbday wrote: »

what are we hoping he will call with though?

I was hoping he would have a worse two pair...KJ, A9, AJ, maybe KQ... These are all hands he could (poorly imo?.where we are I think he needs to jam anything he is gonna play) flat... That being said for sure I am hoping he calls with these type hands..and of course, he hits sometimes...not at all worried about that..guess maybe I was just looking for affirmation that shit does indeed happen...and no way of getting around it.

Unknown

DennisG wrote: »

I was hoping he would have a worse two pair...KJ, A9, AJ, maybe KQ... These are all hands he could (poorly imo?.where we are I think he needs to jam anything he is gonna play) flat... That being said for sure I am hoping he calls with these type hands..and of course, he hits sometimes...not at all worried about that..guess maybe I was just looking for affirmation that shit does indeed happen...and no way of getting around it.

he always leads out on turn or check raises turn with two pair i think....so we could possible bet min...expecting him to jam two pair and sometimes bluffs...and then we don't give infinite odds to draws.....but i think we are way ahead or way behind and i think the ace is a good card to feign weakness no?

Unknown

windbreaker wrote: »

This makes it sound like all worse hands will fold...simply not true. Any worse two pair hands aren't folding. Most good combo draws aren't folding...eg. KdQs.

Also you aren't folding to most river, means that you're essentially giving your opponent a total freeroll on the river - they shove when they hit, and check-fold to you on the river. The board is so wet, it makes our actual range of hands relatively wide.

Since our actual hand is at the top of our range of hands, and our opponents can call with worse, we should almost always bet this turn at this stack depth.

Edit - Just looked back...obv we have Kd. He still can have AxQd KxQd, etc.....point is still the same

obv i have to votes against me from better players so i prob have to reevaluate...but just saying that of course we know two pair will always call...but we will fold out 1 pair hands and hands that will bluff...

Vekked

windbreaker wrote: »

Second hand...first, the opponent is David Vamplew...ept london winner. Once you three bet, this is usually a call. It's not a situation where you're racing at best. He could easily shove 88 or 99. When you include these pairs to his range of Aq+, 88+ you're gonna get the right price given the dead money.

The only way this could be a fold is if you have been a nit, and this is your only three bet in the last hour or such. If your image is somewhat active at all, I prefer a call....sorry you lost to AK.

I'm not positive but I think calling here might be ICM suicide. Pretty sure it's a fold, it's either a flat or fold first time around too. This isn't a normal MTT.

Vekked

Oh and just get it in in hand 1 somehow.

windbreaker

The more top heavy prize structure of this events are, it makes +chipEV decisions approach +$EV decisions. As a result, you should make more +chipEV decisions in this spot, since 3rd/4th/5th place essentially pay relatively small compared to 1st and 2nd.

I'm not certain exactly how a 2 seat tournament vs a winner take all approach differs in terms of ICM. I'm sure there's a difference...I'm not good enough to quantify it.

If this was like the Sunday Million where every pay jump from 5th to 1st had a huge dollar difference, then we should fold more marginal spots.

In this exact spot, once we 3 bet it preflop, I don't think we're deep enough to fold, when a large part of our opponents range contains AK/AQ in a 5 handed spot. I'm certainly not thrilled with it, but with all that money in the middle and with a decent amount of time we're flipping as a favorite...I don't think I'm folding.

It really depends what I think my opponent thinks of my 3 betting range. If this is one the few times our opponent has seen me 3bet, then I guess it's a sigh fold.

This leads us to the original preflop decision of 3 betting preflop with 1010. If the plan is to 3 bet fold, I think we have all agreed, that flatting is a much better option.

Richard~

I think he can jam light here enough of the time to make it a good 3 bet call

Vekked

windbreaker wrote: »

The more top heavy prize structure of this events are, it makes +chipEV decisions approach +$EV decisions. As a result, you should make more +chipEV decisions in this spot, since 3rd/4th/5th place essentially pay relatively small compared to 1st and 2nd.

You're right that the more top heavy a prize structure is, the closer to cEV your decisions become, but 40% of the field getting ~100% of the prizes isn't exactly top heavy. I did some quick calculations, pretty sure they're accurate but there's some chance I made a mistake because I rarely do ICM calcs like this, but this is what I found:

He needs to be shoving more than 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo (9.5%) for us to call after we 3-bet as opposed to the 99+,AQ+ (5.1%) that makes it +cEV. 99+, AQ+ shows a slight profit in terms of chips, but we burn ~$800 by calling. I'm not positive of his shoving range here but I highly doubt he's 4-betting that wide without any dynamic.

Richard~

Interesting, playing vs players with contiuous ranges and ranges polarized between top of range and top of folding range is mathematically much harder than playing against a player who might shove 67s here just cause he feels we're light sometimes