Nightly $55, 10 left, I have top pair, turn play?

jdAA88

Villain a Brazilian winning player and is basically running over the table but imo he's also running godly, haven't seem him caught bluffing and when it looks like he could be, he has the nuts or close to it when called down. Earlier on when we were 8handed at this table I opened JJ from MP, btn flatted, and he squeezed, I 4b, he timebanked for about 40 seconds and folded.

Another hand he CR'd me on 9KQss and I folded.

His stats are 36/30 w/ 14% 3b over 158 hands.

How would you play the turn? b/f, b/c/reevaluate riv?

I figured that he could be raising the turn with the Ad or Kd in his hand, or he checked back this flop with a FD trying to disguise his hand as most would obv cbet this flop with a FD.

On the river he timed-down from like 80 seconds all the way to 10 seconds before betting: imo when people bluff they usually bet a lot quicker rather than slower. I have 190k left on the river.


PokerStars Game #71472146051: Tournament #549011084, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (3000/6000) - 2011/12/02 2:48:18 ET
Table '549011084 16' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: julesdAA (252631 in chips)
Seat 4: K1ng-Kawe (104184 in chips)
Seat 5: ricardolago (104935 in chips)
Seat 6: jeremaroto (642193 in chips)
Seat 7: Mataro (330932 in chips)
julesdAA: posts the ante 600
K1ng-Kawe: posts the ante 600
ricardolago: posts the ante 600
jeremaroto: posts the ante 600
Mataro: posts the ante 600
Mataro: posts small blind 3000
julesdAA: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to julesdAA [:9c :jc]
K1ng-Kawe: folds
ricardolago: folds
jeremaroto: raises 8880 to 14880
Mataro: folds
julesdAA: calls 8880
*** FLOP *** [:7s :2d :9d]
julesdAA: checks
jeremaroto: checks
*** TURN *** [:7s :2d :9d] [:5d]
julesdAA: bets 19880
jeremaroto: raises 26786 to 46666
julesdAA: calls 26786
*** RIVER *** [:7s :2d :9d :5d] [:8s]
julesdAA: checks
jeremaroto: bets 104400
K1ng-Kawe said, "bluff"
K1ng-Kawe said, "dont listen to me tho"
julesdAA: ?

HammerDad

Fold pre and avoid these marginal situations.

I fold. Top pair meh kicker is rarely winning here.

jdAA88

Guess I should have titled this as turn and river play, but I'm definitely concerned about whether my turn call is bad or not.

HammerDad

jdAA88 wrote: »

Guess I should have titled this as turn and river play, but I'm definitely concerned about whether my turn call is bad or not.

Given the number of draws out that he could on, it probably isn't that bad. I could see 3betting the turn to like 80k if you think he as some sort of combo draw like Ad6x or something.

Villain could be bluffing, but some of his bluffs (like over pairs and 2 pair) still beat us.

Spots like this is the reason why I fold pre. Also, given the stacks of the other players, I want to try and avoid getting into OOP battles with the big stack with marginal holdings.

djgolfcan

From your impression of villain, I fold to his raise on the turn. He hasn't shown any bluffs and has always had it, what makes you think he is bluffing now ?

That turn card brings flushes and straights in, plus two pairs, etc.. Your nine is no longer good.

betrthanphil

umm i 3bet prob 100% of the time pre, then this hand is played pretty easy from there, cbet flop get it in, or if he flats flop check jam turn on him. As played fold river, call on turn is ok i think but his range is so wide that 68 is in there j10 with a diamond yada yada lol. Think hes more likely to check back the flop with some sort of weaker draw, only thing we are beating is AK or AQ with ad i think.

jdAA88

alright thanks

Unknown

i think you need to lead the river as a blocking bet...even if hes extra lag he can't really bluff raise you there....

and i don't think i would lead the turn as hes very likely to raise you with most of his range...and when he does you don't have so much equity to protect and call.....i would fold to that raise probably. plus the river won't be friendly when he'll barrel at anything

but against a loose aggressive winning player i think you can just check call all the way here and keep the pot small and expect to be ahead a lot.

but as he has the ability to show up with sets two pair flushes straight and over pairs prob a sure fold...

masterplan

Based on all given information I would be almost certain you were beat there.
For some reason if I were in the situation I'd want to put him on a hand like 10's with a diamond, or maybe even 6's.
Unlike some previous posts, I do think it was correct to defend your big blind here, however leading out on the turn was a bit of a shaky play.
I think you would have been much better off checking for pot control, and in reality just try to get a bit more information out of the hand.

betrthanphil

Id bet a lot of money he doesnt have 1010, who is gonna check back 1010 on the flop here? your crazy

blackmagicz

In this instance if I am check the flop I also check the turn. The 5d just makes the board that much more nastier and with 1 pair no kicker I am not looking to play a big pot.

With that being said, his hand smells like some sort of combo pair/flush draw on the turn. Those min raises are "I want to see where you are at, but if you get it in, I will be calling so make sure you have it"

Unknown

blackmagicz wrote: »

Those min raises are "I want to see where you are at, but if you get it in, I will be calling so make sure you have it"

i agree in most cases but here if hes a good lag reg ip then it could mean he will call or fold i think....

Richard~

I'd probably call river, I'd expect him to cbet diamonds and 86 810 cause it makes sense to do so. furthermore I wouldn't really expect him to give up after not cbetting

Edit: the mentality of many lag players seems to be "how can i get this guy to fold again and again" rather than "how can I extract think value from my image"

betrthanphil

what hand are you putting him on to call, you cant just say im gonna call because i think im winning. In order to make good river calls you have to put your opponent on a hand that your beating. I think there are way more hands that are beating us that are in his range being played this way then ones we arent

Unknown

betrthanphil wrote: »

what range are you putting him on to call, you cant just say im gonna call because i think im winning. In order to make good river calls you have to put your opponent on a range that your beating. I think there are way more hands that are beating us that are in his range being played this way then ones we arent

>:D:p

Unknown

Richard~ wrote: »

I'd probably call river, I'd expect him to cbet diamonds and 86 810 cause it makes sense to do so."

i missed that so its a thought, but i think if i were lag i would never cbet this with something like diamonds because its a horrible semi-bluff when people won't fold to you as much. Also if hes smarter then he wouldn't want to get check raised of that board. I think hes more like to cbet air ....

Richard~ wrote: »

"how can I extract think value from my image"

noted

Richard~

betrthanphil wrote: »

. I think there are way more hands that are beating us that are in his range being played this way then ones we arent

what if I feel like his entire bluffrange might be played like this? how can I range that?

Unknown

Richard~ wrote: »

what if I feel like his entire bluff range might be played like this? how can I range that?

first start with his value range then see how much bluff he needs to make calling profitable ???

Richard~

meh, that's hard. I'd assume he'd valuebet two pairs with a 9 in his hand any 6 and any flush as well as J10. As far as the bluffing side goes I'd expect him to turn some pairs less than 9s into bluffs bluff a bunch of broadways, naked 1 diamond hands and his whole pokerbook telling him that it's good to pressure finaltable bubbles in all situations no matter what

Anyway, it's too hard, can't I just click call and fistpump if I win?


Edit: Seriously though, another thing to factor in is that our percieved range here is fairly weak, it's a decent spot to bluff. That said, the sizing of the bet itself is something I feel is generally used for both bluffs and value so it's not some kind of fancy valuebet bluff. it's a straight up bluff of a straight up largeish valuebet

betrthanphil

I think you giving villian a lot of credit. Basically your giving him credit for having the plan once he saw the flop to go with a delayed cbet instead of on the flop and once he seen the lead he raised as his plan was to be aggro on the turn. I dont think I would give him that much credit. Also if your saying he is suppose to be aggro on FT bubbles then i expect him to cbet a flop against a BB caller. These boards are very dangerous for a bb calling range. It seems to me that he isnt worried at all about what hero has which leads me to believe that he has a hand that he believes is good.
I also expect him to check back both a 6 and j10.

Unknown

my take on ranges street by street

villain open's wide pre

on the flop he bets his mid pairs to protect tt and jj etc....sometimes checks back QQ+ that have a diamond maybe and checks a lot of nut diamond draw as to not get cr'd off his strong hand. Prob cbets weaker flushes like QdTd. He might check sets, and two pair sometimes. He also might check some AK AQ hands with a diamond more so than without. He prob cbets most some of his air like overcards.

on the turn when he raises its never going to be complete air, its either a made hand or a draw to the nuts. two pair, set, flush draw, flush, QQ+ with diamond (88d?)

on the river he rarely has a 6 without having a flush. Rich is right he's polarized but I don't think he can have much air.....

AQ AK with a diamond but vs the above range youre a dog even if he's bluffing 10% of the time. Getting 2 to 1 I think? prob not enough though

Unknown

betrthanphil wrote: »

I think you giving villian a lot of credit. Basically your giving him credit for having the plan once he saw the flop to go with a delayed cbet instead of on the flop and once he seen the lead he raised as his plan was to be aggro on the turn. I dont think I would give him that much credit. Also if your saying he is suppose to be aggro on FT bubbles then i expect him to cbet a flop against a BB caller. These boards are very dangerous for a bb calling range. It seems to me that he isnt worried at all about what hero has which leads me to believe that he has a hand that he believes is good.
I also expect him to check back both a 6 and j10.

how do we know when to 3bet from the blinds as a bluff? Or without a top hand?

???

betrthanphil

against an someone playing 31/30 or whatever it is, your suppose to do it with hands that have equity but are just out of calling range, j9s is prob as close to a call as you can get, but i really dont like playing oop vs a lp raiser as his range is very undefined. Also stack dependant but with a 40+ bb stack I like to start to get aggro. 40bb is kinda perfect because it makes it hard for the opponent to 4 bet bluff without committing himself to calling the 5bet shove.

Unknown

betrthanphil wrote: »

against an someone playing 31/30 or whatever it is, your suppose to do it with hands that have equity but are just out of calling range, j9s is prob as close to a call as you can get, but i really dont like playing oop vs a lp raiser as his range is very undefined. Also stack dependant but with a 40+ bb stack I like to start to get aggro. 40bb is kinda perfect because it makes it hard for the opponent to 4 bet bluff without committing himself to calling the 5bet shove.

and you learned this by feel didn't you...

betrthanphil

I just started getting real aggro and learned which spots for 3 and 4 betting worked best, still fine tuning the 4 betting haha, but only way to learn is by doing

Unknown

one day ...ima be...better than betrthanphil

betrthanphil

one day im gonna party like yoda!

Richard~

darbday wrote: »

my take on ranges street by street

villain open's wide pre

on the flop he bets his mid pairs to protect tt and jj etc....sometimes checks back QQ+ that have a diamond maybe and checks a lot of nut diamond draw as to not get cr'd off his strong hand. Prob cbets weaker flushes like QdTd. He might check sets, and two pair sometimes. He also might check some AK AQ hands with a diamond more so than without. He prob cbets most some of his air like overcards.

on the turn when he raises its never going to be complete air, its either a made hand or a draw to the nuts. two pair, set, flush draw, flush, QQ+ with diamond (88d?)

on the river he rarely has a 6 without having a flush. Rich is right he's polarized but I don't think he can have much air.....

AQ AK with a diamond but vs the above range youre a dog even if he's bluffing 10% of the time. Getting 2 to 1 I think? prob not enough though

this makes no sense, most of it doesn't anyway. If you open wide you're definitely betting your flashdraws to balance out your weak cbet range. If I have Q10 of diamonds here I'm NEVER...EVER worried about getting checkraised off my hand cause basically I can't be...

if he opens wide and only cbets the hands you claim he is he should have a cbet% like 15 or so. I'm willing to bet money this is not the case. you said he opens wide then suddenly all those air hands disappeared from your analysis.

Also, why can't he raise complete air on the turn? Say he had that plan from the start, or say he has a hand like A10o without a diamond and decided it had equity on the flop but didn't want to call down with it

Richard~

also, someone playing 30/30 or whatever usually has a higher rfi% so I doubt the premiums will have much of an impact in our analysis. If that was the case we would almost never see him take a line like this, and I feel like I see this over and over

Unknown

Richard~ wrote: »

this makes no sense, most of it doesn't anyway. If you open wide you're definitely betting your flashdraws to balance out your weak cbet range.

i think top flush draw don't balance our cbet range they are the nuts here so i might play lag wrong here but with a hand like aks i prefer not induce a check raise from a made hand ... checking back and raising turn would def be how i would do it...but that might be wrong..

Richard~ wrote: »

If I have Q10 of diamonds here I'm NEVER...EVER worried about getting checkraised off my hand cause basically I can't be...

i didn't do that math with stacks but i think we can be c

Richard~ wrote: »

if he opens wide and only cbets the hands you claim he is he should have a cbet% like 15 or so. I'm willing to bet money this is not the case. you said he opens wide then suddenly all those air hands disappeared from your analysis.

i think he cbet alot of his air being mostly over cards?

Richard~

if you're not cbetting Aks here then what are you cbetting? 70% air?