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Official March 9th CPT event Crossbooking/LastLonger/Sidebet thread

GamblorGamblor
in Brick & Mortar Casino Talk
I'll crossbook/last longer/sidebet anyone, including all_aces.

Here's a start: I'll bet $100 that no Pokerforum.ca member with more than 10 posts makes the final table. I don't count.


EDIT: Due to questions, I should have clarified that the pokerforum.ca final table bet requires that the 10th post be made before this original post date: Feb 3, 2005.

Comments

  • ChugsChugs
    i might take that bet (on the a pokerforum.ca member making the final table) but you have to count towards the list of people ... just so you can face the agony of paying me off if you make the final table :)
  • UnknownUnknown
    That 'nobody from pokerforum makes the final table' bet is sweeeeeeeeeeeeet. For us. Count me in on that one, $100 for me says that a pokerforum.ca member makes the final table. Excluding you.

    And I'll book a $100 last-longer bet with you too.

    And I'll trade 10% with you.
  • ChugsChugs
    all_aces wrote:
    That 'nobody from pokerforum makes the final table' bet is sweeeeeeeeeeeeet. For us. Count me in on that one, $100 for me says that a pokerforum.ca member makes the final table. Excluding you.

    And I'll book a $100 last-longer bet with you too.

    And I'll trade 10% with you.
    I think by doing all three you've basicly cross hedged your exposure to zero
  • UnknownUnknown
    Lol. I think you might be right, but that depends on how Gamblor does. I turned it all around him.
  • ChugsChugs
    Okay i'll take the $100 pokerforum.ca member makes the final table bet
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    How many non-Gamblor forum members are entering this tournament?

    ScottyZ
  • UnknownUnknown
    I was trying to work that out myself. I'm going to guess six.
  • ChugsChugs
    I think he's statistically getting the better end of the bet, but i'm just hoping that we have an ace in the hole or should i say an all aces in the hole
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    Making a lot of statistical approximations and assumptions, I'd say that 5 non-Gamblor forum members entering the event is close to the point at which Gamblor's "forum @ final table" prop bet is roughly a fair bet.*

    The main assumptions I'm making:

    Tournament/final table tournament size: 1/8 of the players make it to the final table.

    Main poker assumption: All players are of equal skill

    Statistical assumption: The occurances of individual players making it to the final table are approximately independent.

    Tweak the assumptions as you see fit. If you think most forum members have better than average chances, the overall chances of a forum member appearing at the final table go up.

    ScottyZ

    *Why? [Warning: for math/stat geeks only] Because P(X_n = 0) is closest to 0.5 for X_n distributed Binomial(n, 0.125) when n = 5.
  • magithighsmagithighs
    I'm in! I'm not sure I want to take the side bet, as I can't win a prop bet if I was a 98% favourite. I'll save the 100 for my multiple rebuys.

    Now, the important question are the tables 11 handed?

    Cheers
    Magi
  • Dick HertzDick Hertz
    yes the tables are 11 handed
  • GamblorGamblor
    all_aces wrote:
    That 'nobody from pokerforum makes the final table' bet is sweeeeeeeeeeeeet. For us. Count me in on that one, $100 for me says that a pokerforum.ca member makes the final table. Excluding you.

    And I'll book a $100 last-longer bet with you too.

    And I'll trade 10% with you.

    All bets are on.
  • GamblorGamblor
    ScottyZ wrote:
    *Why? [Warning: for math/stat geeks only] Because P(X_n = 0) is closest to 0.5 for X_n distributed Binomial(n, 0.125) when n = 5.

    Scotty, you're a smart gambler. I assumed 4 (Dick Hertz, all_aces, Chugs, and magithighs, and that the average pokerforum member had a 1.2x chance of making the final table.

    My overlay is gone.
  • GamblorGamblor
    Chugs wrote:
    Okay i'll take the $100 pokerforum.ca member makes the final table bet

    I'll take this one. One more at most.

    My current exposure is:

    $200 + crossbook to all_aces

    $100 to chugs
  • ChugsChugs
    out of curiosity how do you do trade % in a re-buy and add-on format. Do you do it based on the net winning or based on a % of the total winning
  • GamblorGamblor
    We're not trading pieces of each other.

    Crossbooking is basically a personal bet between the two parties that increases the gamble if the actual tournament action isn't enough (heh).

    Basically, whatever all_aces wins in the tournament, I'll add 10% to it and vice versa. Rebuys are a non-issue. If we both money, then lower finisher pays the difference.
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    Gamblor wrote:
    Scotty, you're a smart gambler. I assumed 4 (Dick Hertz, all_aces, Chugs, and magithighs, and that the average pokerforum member had a 1.2x chance of making the final table.

    My overlay is gone.

    Whoops... sorry if I spoiled the bet by putting some calculations out there.

    I thought it would still be okay to post my rough analysis since the actual number of forum people entering was still a little bit of an unknown, and my assumption for the weights (i.e. 1.0x) on each forum player's chances of success was very subjective (and probably wrong), and changing it would (fairly healily) affect the outcome.

    ScottyZ
  • ChugsChugs
    Gamblor wrote:
    We're not trading pieces of each other.

    Crossbooking is basically a personal bet between the two parties that increases the gamble if the actual tournament action isn't enough (heh).

    Basically, whatever all_aces wins in the tournament, I'll add 10% to it and vice versa. Rebuys are a non-issue. If we both money, then lower finisher pays the difference.
    So you guys aren't swapping a percentage of each other?
  • UnknownUnknown
    Hmmm.... when I said I'll swap 10% with you I meant, well, I'll swap 10% with you. Meaning that if I win, I give you 10% of my winnings, and if you win, you give me 10% of your winnings. I'm not sure what this 'crossbooking' stuff is, but it sounds like nothing I'm interested in.
  • ChugsChugs
    i may be interested in swapping a percentage with people, but it's better to pm privately on that


    i still wish we could get an official list of players who are on pokerforum.ca
  • esoolesool
    Gamblor wrote:
    I'll take this one. One more at most.

    My current exposure is:

    $200 + crossbook to all_aces

    $100 to chugs

    I'll take $100 that a forum member makes it to the final table, if it is available to me. I think AA introduced us last month at the "Tuesday" Woodbridge Tourney. I am the tall skinny guy with glasses... Possibly a red satin jacket also. :tongue:
    As I mention in another thread, I am attending this tourney.
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