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AQ debate part 500: vs TAG reg......
Villain is a tag reg....running about 14/12 60%+ cbet.....all that.....
Hes a winning reg but meaning hes just winning not a 'very good reg' in my notes....so I have room to mess with him in general....
i can prob just barely get it in pre...actually vs his range im prob a dog. hes gonna show up with TT+ AQ+ and the odd time hands like 99 AJs KQs which he folds a to a shove....but honestly he really only has a value range here that he calls prob nearly 95%+ of the time.....
So I wonder if flatting and never folding and looking for any fold equity we can find is going to be better.....
Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds, 9 Players
SB: 1,651
BB: 1,050
UTG: 3,275
UTG+1: 2,060
UTG+2: 1,595
MP1: 2,555
JodaB. (MP2): 2,329
CO: 906
BTN: 1,285
Pre-Flop: (225) Q
A
dealt to JodaB. (MP2)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 450, 2 folds, JodaB. calls 450, 4 folds
Flop: (1,125) 7 T K
(2 Players)
UTG+1 bets 555, JodaB. raises to 1,879 and is All-In
Hes a winning reg but meaning hes just winning not a 'very good reg' in my notes....so I have room to mess with him in general....
i can prob just barely get it in pre...actually vs his range im prob a dog. hes gonna show up with TT+ AQ+ and the odd time hands like 99 AJs KQs which he folds a to a shove....but honestly he really only has a value range here that he calls prob nearly 95%+ of the time.....
So I wonder if flatting and never folding and looking for any fold equity we can find is going to be better.....
Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds, 9 Players
SB: 1,651
BB: 1,050
UTG: 3,275
UTG+1: 2,060
UTG+2: 1,595
MP1: 2,555
JodaB. (MP2): 2,329
CO: 906
BTN: 1,285
Pre-Flop: (225) Q
A dealt to JodaB. (MP2)UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 450, 2 folds, JodaB. calls 450, 4 folds
Flop: (1,125) 7
T K (2 Players)UTG+1 bets 555, JodaB. raises to 1,879 and is All-In
Comments
but here on this flop i think most regs thinks they won't fold here but I know that if he has aq here he will fold....maybe tt jj etc will fold as well. It incorrect for them to do it kinda but i think i can catch them in their cbetting tracks before they realize I flatted short pre and re raised a k high flop to there tag reg image....
Edit: either way your FE is way better pre. also if he's tight, it's an easy fold pre vs a 3x
As played, with the Ac, this could be a shove. But we are likely to have 0 fold equity as villain is getting 3 or 4-1 to call here and probably isn't like to fold TP, jj or any ten here if they are half decent or thinking.....but vs A10, jj or 99 we still have a fair number of outs. It is high variance, and I am sure there are times we will be called and be ahead of hands like AJ.
Unless villain has a hand like 1010 or 99, I am fine with this. Villain may even call with AJ or AQ here....
As played definitely shove flop, he only needs to fold 20% of the time, even if he only folds worse hands he probably has worse >20% of the time, and if he calls worse hands then it just makes our situation better.
Darb - in general don't flat >10% of your stack often at all. If he's too tight to shove on with 15BB he's going to be too tight to flat against too. If you only think he's opening AQ/TT+ then why are we flatting AQ? Sklansky would be pissed. If he's opening wider than that, it'll be +EV to jam. You flatted almost 20% of your stack in this spot. Never flat 20% of your stack (there might be spots to do it, but considering the spot you chose this hand, consider it a rule for the time being).
so where he will never fold pre he may once in a while, because of my awkward flat, end up bet folding on a board that we missed....
even though in general he should know better....im thinking its possible for him to cbet fold on a kxx board....thinking hes never good and i always have ak kk aa
edit: and no i don't really ever flat like this....just was experimenting with a thought.....
You do gain if he calls with his entire range because it will contain worse hands... Obviously you gain by shoving value hands darb. Flatting to shove any flop is FPS. You shouldn't ACTUALLY be shoving any flop, and you're going to end up making mistakes by shoving ones you should and not shoving ones you should. You have to be very good to be able to do this kind of play. You need to know his range, know roughly how much equity you have vs. it on every flop, and shove every time you have >x% equity and fold when you don't. I'm assuming you don't know this, I sure don't.
Either his range is loose enough that he'll fold enough to call worse pre, or it's tight enough that you're not going to show a profit shoving flops because he's going to have it too much. I see what you're getting at, and there may be situations in which flatting and shoving pre show a profit, but flatting is slightly more. You need to do a ton of math to figure out where those situations are, though. I don't think many situations exist with short-stacks that shoving doesn't show a profit but flatting does though.
I think it's a bit optimistic to think you have much fold equity, or he's going to put you on monsters when you flat. IF you could be confident enough that this was the case, AQo is probably not one of the hands you want to be flatting anyways, something that flops more equity vs. his value range that he will never fold out is what you would want to be flatting.
I heard this most
thx.
fyp
false!
so sad :<
Edit: Seriously though, I don't think you're right this time, with antes the math would probably tip towards your blanket statement. Maybe even if it's suited, dunno. If I shove here I hate my life while doing it
we are assuming he never folds pre which i don't think he does....maybe he folds like less than 5%....
But i am very confident that aqo is the cutoff hand....maybe ajs too but not likely ajo....i think ajo is -ev because these type of regs are too tight, its one of there leaks or whatever...
so on paper i think its close to a fold or jam...but in reality with turbo blinds....uber tight overcallers behind us... our advantage with a deeper stack...errors in the math and the odds screw up hand from the villain its prob an easy jam.....
i just feel silly running my med monsters into nutted ranges....i still think its correct....
but i agree with V id have to go through the math...
Turbo or non...what does it matter? Is this the second or third time I have caught you implying there might be different strat for turbo vs. non...??
:err::baffled:
mathematically being a turbo shouldn't change anything but it does because people freak out and think they have to accumulate chips rather than ev......
we call because its +ev not because its a turbo structure so and we need chips fast...
i do think a little differently about spots than before but what i was always referring to that you keep bringing up i still stand by.....we can use a calculator to decide if a shove is +ev or not....the blinds structure won't change this....it might affect the very bottom of our range by a hand or so here and there (when blinds are about to change etc.)....but we can't just take -ev shove constantly soley in the name of turbo.....
however i do it all day long in the name of yoda.batman
(<^^>)
I agree full on....aqo is a shove here. I also think that I can fill out an accurate calling and shoving range on my opponent based on his roi...what i mean is...show me a 180 man grinders roi and I will pwn him all day....It won't be accurate for each person......but in general it will be close for most people.
I feel like the last bunch of topics (a few posts i remember thinking this) I put up a profile for villain and posters have ignored the profile. I know this guy I have like 2-3k hands with him. I know his peers, I know the info he seeks out, I know what his instructors say, I know the vids he watches.
His not a big winning reg...he is just above 'break even reg'....he makes money but not much...he has a giant issue.....hes too tight....its a leak....
but here as well with 13 bbs....i don't think he has a raise fold range....and i think he never raise calls 99 or kqs etc.....he open shoves them....
And I'm not arguing more about the op.....V already showed I'm not strong enough with the math.....
Yeah, this is pretty significant, cos, I'd say, in the smaller buyin 180s and under, many regs will just 2-2.5x even with 10-15bbs with their premiums to try and induce action cos there's so many bad players who will flat/shove incorrectly and stuff, while they just openjam, like darb said, the rest of their range. And since you do have a pretty damn good read on this villain, if you're sure he is only raise-calling premiums, then this could be a trivial fold imo.
I'm assuming he calls 100% cause regs generally don't open smaller than 20 BB stacks utg to fold to a reshove cause it's mathematically bad almost always