Bad tournament-ending decision....
.... or WAS it?
Man, that's a tricky thread title, the way I just twisted it all around when you open up the thread.
$150 NL tournament on Stars tonight, no rebuys/addons. TOUGH FIELD. I'd say maybe the toughest of the week, every week. It's probably the most expensive MTT on Stars that there are no sat's for, and I think it makes a difference.
I didn't necessarily feel out-classed, but at the same time I didn't feel as sure of myself as I usually do. Whether or not that's relevant is up to you to decide.
I pretty much used up my time bank on this one... I actually typed in the words 'THIS IS A BAD CALL' as I called on the flop. Then I beat myself up in my room for a while (not literally). Then I did some digging, and discovered that maybe... just maybe... it wasn't as bad as I thought. There are a lot of things I hate about it (I'm calling instead of betting, it's for all of my chips, I'm on a draw... basically every no-no in the book) but there are a couple of things I like about it, too. So, now I'm all confused and I need your help.
328 starters, around 100 left, top 36 get paid. I'm choosing to post the whole hand history because I think that the stacks of all of my opponents are important.
PokerStars Game #1162219116: Tournament #4953155, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2005/02/02 - 22:47:35 (ET)
Table '4953155 19' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: mm-nh (5990 in chips)
Seat 2: Sdouble (7955 in chips)
Seat 4: all aces (5011 in chips)
Seat 5: dananddan (5045 in chips)
Seat 6: anakoa (5785 in chips)
Seat 7: Tekkster (5891 in chips)
Seat 8: maxteam (6155 in chips)
Seat 9: geoffacnj (4379 in chips)
mm-nh: posts the ante 25
Sdouble: posts the ante 25
all aces: posts the ante 25
dananddan: posts the ante 25
anakoa: posts the ante 25
Tekkster: posts the ante 25
maxteam: posts the ante 25
geoffacnj: posts the ante 25
anakoa: posts small blind 100
Tekkster: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [Qs Ad]
maxteam: folds
geoffacnj: folds
mm-nh: raises 400 to 600
Sdouble: folds
all aces: calls 600
dananddan: folds
anakoa: folds
Tekkster: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jd 5d Td]
Riverloser is connected
mm-nh: bets 4400
all aces: calls 4386 and is all-in
all aces said, "I KNOW IT'S A BAD CALL"
Tekkster said, "LOL"
*** TURN *** [Jd 5d Td] [Tc]
Tekkster said, "YEA"
Tekkster said, "JUST A LIL BIT"
*** RIVER *** [Jd 5d Td Tc] [Qh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mm-nh: shows [Qc Qd] (a full house, Queens full of Tens)
all aces: shows [Qs Ad] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
mm-nh collected 10472 from pot
Sdouble said, "very bad call"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10472 | Rake 0
Board [Jd 5d Td Tc Qh]
Seat 1: mm-nh showed [Qc Qd] and won (10472) with a full house, Queens full of Tens
Seat 2: Sdouble folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: all aces showed [Qs Ad] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 5: dananddan (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: anakoa (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Tekkster (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: maxteam folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: geoffacnj folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Any comments appreciated.
Man, that's a tricky thread title, the way I just twisted it all around when you open up the thread.
$150 NL tournament on Stars tonight, no rebuys/addons. TOUGH FIELD. I'd say maybe the toughest of the week, every week. It's probably the most expensive MTT on Stars that there are no sat's for, and I think it makes a difference.
I didn't necessarily feel out-classed, but at the same time I didn't feel as sure of myself as I usually do. Whether or not that's relevant is up to you to decide.
I pretty much used up my time bank on this one... I actually typed in the words 'THIS IS A BAD CALL' as I called on the flop. Then I beat myself up in my room for a while (not literally). Then I did some digging, and discovered that maybe... just maybe... it wasn't as bad as I thought. There are a lot of things I hate about it (I'm calling instead of betting, it's for all of my chips, I'm on a draw... basically every no-no in the book) but there are a couple of things I like about it, too. So, now I'm all confused and I need your help.
328 starters, around 100 left, top 36 get paid. I'm choosing to post the whole hand history because I think that the stacks of all of my opponents are important.
PokerStars Game #1162219116: Tournament #4953155, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2005/02/02 - 22:47:35 (ET)
Table '4953155 19' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: mm-nh (5990 in chips)
Seat 2: Sdouble (7955 in chips)
Seat 4: all aces (5011 in chips)
Seat 5: dananddan (5045 in chips)
Seat 6: anakoa (5785 in chips)
Seat 7: Tekkster (5891 in chips)
Seat 8: maxteam (6155 in chips)
Seat 9: geoffacnj (4379 in chips)
mm-nh: posts the ante 25
Sdouble: posts the ante 25
all aces: posts the ante 25
dananddan: posts the ante 25
anakoa: posts the ante 25
Tekkster: posts the ante 25
maxteam: posts the ante 25
geoffacnj: posts the ante 25
anakoa: posts small blind 100
Tekkster: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [Qs Ad]
maxteam: folds
geoffacnj: folds
mm-nh: raises 400 to 600
Sdouble: folds
all aces: calls 600
dananddan: folds
anakoa: folds
Tekkster: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jd 5d Td]
Riverloser is connected
mm-nh: bets 4400
all aces: calls 4386 and is all-in
all aces said, "I KNOW IT'S A BAD CALL"
Tekkster said, "LOL"
*** TURN *** [Jd 5d Td] [Tc]
Tekkster said, "YEA"
Tekkster said, "JUST A LIL BIT"
*** RIVER *** [Jd 5d Td Tc] [Qh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mm-nh: shows [Qc Qd] (a full house, Queens full of Tens)
all aces: shows [Qs Ad] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
mm-nh collected 10472 from pot
Sdouble said, "very bad call"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10472 | Rake 0
Board [Jd 5d Td Tc Qh]
Seat 1: mm-nh showed [Qc Qd] and won (10472) with a full house, Queens full of Tens
Seat 2: Sdouble folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: all aces showed [Qs Ad] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens
Seat 5: dananddan (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: anakoa (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Tekkster (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: maxteam folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: geoffacnj folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Any comments appreciated.
Comments
Ran the numbers and guess what, you're a 54.2% FAVOURITE. I think you likely counted, but with 3 aces, 4 kings, and 8 diamonds as outs, you're looking better than the QQ.
So, the question is, "do you want to risk all your chips at this point on a coin flip in your favour". Would you push in with QQ vs the AK. I think the answer is yes, and Sdouble is a goof. Good call, as it's a TSN turning point of the tournament. Doubling up is a huge advantage at this point.
Footnote: Now, when I pushed in with A9o agains T7 suited, I thought I was a heavy favourite, and I still lost. But alas it was only a 57% favourite. Just wanted to toss that in there as what looks like a good/bad odds situation is quite often a race.
Cheers
Magi
I dunno. Calling the pre-flop raise was ok. Your hand is good enough and your stack is good enough to withstand a standard pre-flop raise.
On the flop, you had a nut flush draw, an inside straight draw and 2 overcards. Depending on what you put the player on, possibly as many as 19 outs with 2 cards to come. Those are VERY good odds. Discount 3/6 outs to allow for what he might have and you still have very good odds.
Against any 2 random cards, you were almost 3-1 favourite. Against any mid to high pair or AK/AQ suited or not, you were still about 1.5-1.
When you factor in the cards he actually had, you were a slight favourite. He had a third nut flush draw with an overpair so he probably felt pretty good too.
To me, it is all a question of what you were looking for here. Were you desperate to double up? Doesn't look like it to me. Basic tournament theory would tell you not to push small edges when you have a chance of losing big time. (Like I need to lecture you on tournament theory!
I'd like to know what you were thinking on this one so I can understand it better myself.
I'm going to start calling more all ins with T7 suited :eek:
First thing before anything: Ignore the chatter from the people at the table, while not the greatest situation you can definitly make a case for the call.
I've been thinking about this hand for a while, and i'll put it this way. This would have been a tough call either way for me. Honestly your even money against almost any potential early position raising hand you could be facing except for JJ, TT, or KQ (specifically of diamonds). The first two because he has a set and your about 35 vs 65 and the KQ(diamonds) cause he already has a flush and it kills your gutshout and overcard outs (30 vs 70).
Against everything else you're even money (give or take 2-3%) ... even against Aces or Kings you're only about a 52 vs 48 dog.
In a cash game this is an instant call with the overlay the pot is giving you. The problem is that in a tourney for all your money it's a tough spot. If this had been for anything less than your entire stack i think while agaonizing it's a call you would and should make.
If i saw things properly while you had a relatively deep stack, i think winning this hand would have put you at or slightly above the average chip count.
If it makes you feel better, at the Five Diamonds tourny (which he won) at Bellagio Daniel N called an all-in bet for all his money in an almost identical situation, he had a gutshot straight flush draw. So he had 2 overcard to the board, a gutshot and a flush draw. so beyond being canadian you and daniel have something else in common. one difference on the turn he made a straight flush
Then there's the part we often take for granted.
...if you feel you have a clear advantage over your opponents.
First of all, there's no doubt that I think you're a great poker player. Why on earth do you think I railbird you all the time, chief? :cool:
However, you are aware that you are up against opposition very different (better) than you typically encounter. You said so yourself.
I certainly hear your point that you don't feel out-classed, but the converse also matters a great deal: Are you out-classing the field? And if so, to what degree?
Anyway, back to the hand at hand.
I like calling here.
Does your opponent have a set here? Unless he's picked up on the "smack you in the face" version of overly straightforward play, he does not have a set.*
Other hands he may have? Depends on the opponent's raising standards, but as has been pointed out in the rest of the thread, you're +EV (taking into account the pre-flop pot) against just about any non-set hand. This is actually kind of bizzare, and not at all to be confused with the "small favorite or big dog" effect. You're (essentially) a +EV shot against all your opponent's possible hands.
High variance for relatively slim +EV? Yes. Such a bad thing typically? Yes. Such a bad thing in the exact tourney situation you're in? Maybe.
A couple of psychological points here:
1. Building a lot of chips right here, though risky, may give you a nice boost of confidence, wheras folding a close decision when you lack (or at least, may not have quite the usual amount of) confidence in your skill vs the field may leave you second guessing that hand later on.
2. I think opening yourself up to criticism with the "I'm making a bad call here" outcry may be unwise. For one thing, it may not be such a bad call. But even if it is, your opponents jump all over you (as was the case here) to take digs at you. I think it would be far easier to slough off negative comments if you remained silent, in which case you can just write off your opponents (probably rightly so) as being jerks. Playfully saying yourself that you suck will probably open the floor to 8,675,309 non-playful comments that you suck.
I'm certainly not saying that you're not capable of handling the needle from your opponents. But I think it can be a short ride on a fast airplane from berating yourself light-heartedly to berating yourself whole-heartedly.
In summary:
1. Not such a bad call.
2. Have more confidence. You r00L.
ScottyZ
P.S. GO CHUGS!
*This kind of thinking is why I'd usually tap in with a set myself in this sort of spot, or even on uncoorinated boards.
LOL
This schtick reminded me of that unearthed dead body that used to host Ripley's.
Believe it...
...orrrrr naawwwwwwwt
Whenever I watched that show, I so desperately wanted to give that dude a glass of water.
ScottyZ
As for the hand I think that it is a very marginal call in tourney play regardless of situation. I think that it is obvious that you could get your money in the pot in many better (higher winning percentages than 50%) spots. As Scotty and how Dave S. often refer to though, I think this call boils down to what game you thought you were playing? Did you have your “A†game or were you playing lower than your highest level?
IMHO, if you thought you were playing your “A†game I do not think you NEEDED* to call here. Conversely, if you thought you were not playing your best (and maybe being outplayed a little) then the call is better. I think from reading your posts that you were obviously not playing 100% sure of yourself. At this table that would be suicide as most of the players would pick-up on this and run you over at some point. So the call in this situation after taking everything into consideration (which admitting to yourself that your not playing your best and/or even worse being outplayed is far from an easy realization) seems like what is the right play. As Scotty said winning the hand probably would have given you the confidence needed to start playing your “A†game.
I have to disagree with Magi though as I love sitting at a table with Sdouble as it is usually fun ride of laughs as he is a very funny player. Mr. Sdouble is quite the character and the comment “very bad call†is probably based on the fact that he thinks they can outplay everyone all the time (and therefore making the call bad).
*still does make calling here bad or wrong, just marginal.
After reading Scotty's comments, I thought a little more about this comment. It touches on my post on the Dave S. forum about my mood. One of the great things about the $10 buy-in tournies is that you have lots of players more than willing to give you mountains of chips. So, losing a pot is not a big deal, and when you win you get maximum value, more often than not. On these tougher tournies, building a stack is extremely hard work. Winning huge pots is more difficult and you're put to very hard decisions on almost every pot -- unless it's for chump change. So, it's not an easy ride. For me I have the same confidence in easy or hard tournies, it's just more draining in the hard tournies and if you're not "up" for it, it's an unsettling feeling playing in them.
Cheers
Magi
As well as the fact that it was a fairly tough table. Very few pots--if any--allowed a limper or limpers to see a cheap flop... almost every one was raised. I think there was about 7 minutes to go before the next level, which was either 150/300 or 200/400. I forget which comes after 100/200 A25, but it doesn't make a huge difference... 4K at those limits isn't all that great.
I was actually in great shape for quite a while, and then two ugly hands happened... both times I raised from MP or LP with good pairs, and both times I more or less had to call an all-in BB re-raise. OK, I didn't HAVE to call, but I did. I think the first one I had 8K and made it 450 preflop with TT at 75/150, BB pushed for 2K more. I could have folded, but I called expecting to see AK or a smaller pair, and saw aces, and lost. A little while later, I made it 450 again with JJ, and called the BB's all-in for about 1500 more. He had A/K, and I lost. Then I got whittled down some more. Did these hands make me think that I'd need to gamble to get those chips back? Maybe. I'd like to think that I don't let that stuff get to me, but maybe I was anxious to get something going after those two hands.
So, yeah. Again, I was thinking 'is THIS my spot?', and I eventually decided that it was close enough. As has been mentioned, I'm even money against most hands, a dog against a few, and a favourite against a few. And the field was far from weak, so I wouldn't be able to steal pots on flops and turn cards as often as I usually like to.
As for the 'I'M MAKING A BAD CALL' statement, you guys are right, I probably shouldn't have typed that. Most players at the table would see that, and see that I was calling off all my chips on a draw, and say 'yeah it sure is a bad call', but if they looked closer they'd see that I actively chose to flip a coin. Maybe I chose to flip it a little earlier than usual (I had more than 10XBB), but I chose to flip it nonetheless. I don't think they realized that I was around even-money on the flop.
Bottom line: I hate calling off all my chips on a draw. After a lot of deliberation, though, I decided to do just that, with 2 cards to come and a lot of outs. Would I do it again next time? It depends.
Thanks again for the replies.
Hypothetically say you had pushed all-in before the QQ got a chance. Now again hypothetically you open your hand up and let the QQ figure out his exact position and he realizes he is a slight dog to you, even though is hand is already made.
If you were QQ would you call that hand. I guess what i'm saying is even money is even money. While one person is on a draw and one person is ahead, both times you would be calling on even money.
So let me pose this question? If all aces had gone all-in first, even if the guy with QQ knew what aces held would you fault him for calling with a coin flop, or is it okay cause his hand is made? Remember once you break it down aces knew he was facing a coin flip with essentially any worthy raising hand.
Now if you do not think you have an advantage over your oppenents then calling off your chips is more easily justified.
As Aces stated he decided that this was his spot. Coin flips are always situational and will always result in the best answer of all "it depends"!
KQ with one diamond.
The hand is generally a couple of percentage points underdog to the range of hands your opponent could reasonably have. However, in almost all cases the flop bet together with the money that went in pre-flop offers you enough money odds over 1-1 to compensate for this. So, calling is slightly +EV against almost all your opponent's typical (non-set) hands.*
The main idea is that this hand is not a favoruite against most hands, but also not a significant dog against most hands.
I'd agree with that. Also, it's hard to think of too many hands where you are a lot worse than a coin flip. The truly strange thing about this hand is that you're even getting +EV to call against hands which you might intuitively assess as crushing you, such as AA, KK, AK, or the (not so) dreaded QQ.
ScottyZ
*If you can't stand me ruling out a flopped set all the time, would you accept the following instead: Given that your opponent has moved all-in on the flop, his/her chances of having a set are comparable to the chances of having KQ with one diamond.