tourneys: luck vs skill?
I'm curious to learn some of the more experienced tournament players thoughts on how much luck plays a factor in winning/doing well in tournaments.
I've certainly seen bad players get lucky and win some huge hands. The other side of that is I've seen many skilled players go bust when a poor player hits a miracle river card when he shouldn't have even been in the hand in the first place.
It seems to me it would be very difficult to win a tournament on skill alone or on luck alone. What do you guys think? How many lucky hands does it take to win a tourney?
I've certainly seen bad players get lucky and win some huge hands. The other side of that is I've seen many skilled players go bust when a poor player hits a miracle river card when he shouldn't have even been in the hand in the first place.
It seems to me it would be very difficult to win a tournament on skill alone or on luck alone. What do you guys think? How many lucky hands does it take to win a tourney?
Comments
No matter how well someone plays in a tournament, they will probably have to get lucky, even if they ALWAYS have the best of it. We often get frustrated after busting out of a tournament because looking back we may think to ourselves, "I was always ahead! I never played from behind and I lost! How could it be?" The nature of poker is that we can play "perfectly" and still lose (by "perfectly" I mean only making +EV plays -- of course, you may have a different definition of "perfect" play; but given that poker is a game of incomplete information, there probably is no strict definition of "perfect" play).
To cope with this harsh reality, I take, what I call, "The O-Ring" perspective. Consider the 1986 explosion of the Challenger Space Shuttle. The successful launch of the shuttle required the proper functioning of six field joints -- each of which contained two O-rings (one as the primary and one as a back-up). In the 1986 Challenger, the probability that any of the field joints would fail was 0.023, so the probability that a given field joint would work properly was 0.977. This seems high, but in order for the ship to launch successfully, all 6 field joints had to work correctly. Due to independence, the probability of a successful launching was (0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977) = 0.87. Essentially, the probability that the ship would explode was 13%!!! When people's lives are at stake, that's some serious risk-taking.
Now apply this to a poker tournament. As an overly simple example, say you were all-in six times during a tournament when you had a big pair versus someone else's lower pair making you roughly an 80% favourite each time. The chances of you winning all six times? (0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8)(0.8) = .26. So 74% of the time you will lose at least one of those all-ins. And if the other players have you covered each time, that means your tournament hopes will "explode" so to speak, more often than not.
Moral of the story:
1) My posts on this forum are often too long.
2) You have to get "lucky" to win as a favourite multiple times.
3) Pivotal moments in tournaments occur when you lose as a favourite (how much did it cost you?)
4) When you bust out after playing well and you always seemed to have the best of it, say to yourself "Serenity now O-rings, serenity now."
5) The statisticians for the 1986 Challenger sucked.
Phil
Then I looked down on Ax in MP and I thought I might as well give it a shot. All-in. No callers. One of the guy grumbles about me taking his SB. Before I had a chance to reply, the very next hand I have AKs. All-in again. The grumbler decides he must keep me honest so he calls with ATo. He does not improve and now I'm at 14.5BB.
I take it pretty easy until THE monster hits me. I'm in the SB with approx 13x BB. Dealt AQo. I thought about raising but the big stack and small stack were in the pot already and I was a bit wary of opening it up for one of them to raise back. So I just complete the blind. The flop comes AAQ. WTF am I gonna do now? If I bet it out, for sure they are gonna fold on me unless someone has a A or Q. So I check, hoping to spring the trap. SS doesn't go for it. BS doesn't go for it. Damn. Turn comes with a blank. What do I do now? Figuring one of these guys can't stand to be checked to twice, I check again. Unfortunately so do they. I've set the trap but no one wants the bait. River comes with another A. Quadzilla! OK, I'm not gonna let them check this one down. But how much do I bet? There about 600 in the pot. Do I bet weak and hope I get raised? Do I overbet and look weak? Do I just pick a size that is callable to maximize the pot? I also considered betting enough to knock out the SS. In the end that is what I did. Sadly, SS folded. The fink! Luckily, BS called and mucked without showing his hand. Now I'm right up there with the chip leaders! Any suggestions on how to play this differently?
Moving right along, shortly thereafter, the SS decides to go all in. A couple positions over a slightly above average stack raises to about 2/3 of her stack. Strange raise. Why not go all in? I look down at QQ and think, well, I'll help her go all in and take 2 of them out at once! Unfortunately, she's got AA and suddenly, I'm SS. 7 players left, 5 get paid and I'm at about 6x BB. My how things can change quickly. Should I have picked up a tell in the amount of her stack she bet?
At this point, it becomes apparent that stealing will not be an option. Every hand is raised before it gets to me. Slowing I'm blinding off. Of course, whenever I'm BB, I'm holding 36o and I'd have to go all-in to stay in the hand. It looks to me like the other small stacks have figured it out and are waiting for me to disappear. Inexplicably, one of the other short stacks takes a run at a pot with lousy cards and is out. One more to go and I'm in the money. The other short stack is not budging. He knows I'll blind out first. Ok, so I find myself with A5 and get ready to push but he beats me to the pot with his chips. Alrighty then! I'll wait. He busts out and I back into the money. Lucky me!
A couple of hands later, I bust out with Ax against someone with small PP. Oh well, I made it into the money. I don't think I was higher than 3x BB so I can't blame them for calling me.
stp
Example would be in early position going all in when not needed. Did this last night and of course the person next to me had AA. (dam monkey). I had plenty of chips left and 3 times the BB would have done it. The AA would have called or reaised and I would have slowed down. DAM DAM.
In tournaments to often players put to much money into a pot with a small favourite expecting it to hold up every time. It’s not always the right decision to call an all-in preflop with AQo when you have your opponent on a bluff or semi-bluff.
I think the object of most of the players on this forum is to have poker skills superior to those you play against. With this being said you are often in a position where you are a better player than your opponent(s). In most cases you do not want to push small favourites especially when you have play (a raise won’t make you pot committed) in your stack. You need to be looking for the opportunities to get your money with large favourites or even the nuts. Of course there times (such as “The New Black†6BB) when you just need to go with a decent hand and hope for a lucky outcome.
Personally, I like to try play most hands I’m involved past the flop. As mentioned in many posts before, a lot of players have good to excellent preflop strategy, especially in No-Limit Texas Hold’em but run into a world of problems post flop. As I am far from the level of a World Class Pros or top notch amateurs I am working hard to improve my decision making skills post flop and avoiding marginal all-in preflop plays. When your stack is deep this strategy helps eliminate a lot of lucky/unlucky outcomes that you see at the tables.
For a large tournament, you said it all.
That's not to say that I NEVER go in with the worst of it. It happens. But more often than not, I'm in with the best of it or I'm bluffing, and if I get called when I'm in with the best of it, I have to count on luck to keep me there.
Also, if I get dealt a disproportionately large number of good-quality starting hands, I consider myself to be lucky. But again, there's no guarantee they're gonna hold up.
Someone with an Ace will likely raise back and you win. Anyone with a Queen or poket pair will likely call, then you can check the turn to try and represent the failed bluff at the pot.
I do like the way you played it, though after two checks you only had one of two hands... Quad Aces or complete garbage. I can't see anyone checking twice with a Queen or pocket pair, they'd likely want to bet to see where they're at, protecting themselves from a king appearing.
I was playing a SNG tournament once and was dealt QQ, 3 hands in a row, each time a made (what I thought) a reasonable size bet (200 when avg. chip stack was about 800) when another player (usually the short stacks of between 300 and 600) would call-in. I would in turn call their bet and they would have JJ and the board would give no help.
3 hands in a row with me having QQ and one other going all-in with JJ and then losing to me, it made me think (after the second time this happen) why wouldn’t they just call and save themselves the chips. Luck for me, lack of skill for them.