FT Hand
Was planning to check shove, but was beat to the draw. Do I still make the call here?
Final table.
#Game No : 10853902834
***** Hand History for Game 10853902834 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $215 USD Buy-in Trny:63268622 Level:26 Blinds-Antes(7,500/15,000 -1,500) - Sunday, September 04, 22:10:39 EDT 2011
Table $200K Guaranteed Sunday (2343512) Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10/10
Seat 1: BetAndLooz ( 1,776,829 )
Seat 9: DinRin ( 241,746 )
Seat 5: Maharet ( 1,091,921 )
Seat 7: Proud2BadOnk ( 417,738 )
Seat 6: TomasGeorge ( 755,476 )
Seat 2: actyper ( 253,950 )
Seat 10: borromias ( 353,148 )
Seat 4: extremistan ( 710,814 )
Seat 3: mwapemitiob ( 403,222 )
Seat 8: pktsebens ( 380,156 )
Trny:63268622 Level:26
Blinds-Antes(7,500/15,000 -1,500)
BetAndLooz posts ante [1,500]
actyper posts ante [1,500]
mwapemitiob posts ante [1,500]
extremistan posts ante [1,500]
Maharet posts ante [1,500]
TomasGeorge posts ante [1,500]
Proud2BadOnk posts ante [1,500]
pktsebens posts ante [1,500]
DinRin posts ante [1,500]
borromias posts ante [1,500]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to actyper [ Kd Td ]
mwapemitiob folds
extremistan folds
Maharet raises [30,000]
TomasGeorge folds
Proud2BadOnk folds
pktsebens folds
DinRin calls [30,000]
borromias folds
BetAndLooz folds
actyper calls [15,000]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, 6h, 6d ]
actyper checks
Maharet checks
DinRin bets [210,000]
Final table.
#Game No : 10853902834
***** Hand History for Game 10853902834 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $215 USD Buy-in Trny:63268622 Level:26 Blinds-Antes(7,500/15,000 -1,500) - Sunday, September 04, 22:10:39 EDT 2011
Table $200K Guaranteed Sunday (2343512) Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10/10
Seat 1: BetAndLooz ( 1,776,829 )
Seat 9: DinRin ( 241,746 )
Seat 5: Maharet ( 1,091,921 )
Seat 7: Proud2BadOnk ( 417,738 )
Seat 6: TomasGeorge ( 755,476 )
Seat 2: actyper ( 253,950 )
Seat 10: borromias ( 353,148 )
Seat 4: extremistan ( 710,814 )
Seat 3: mwapemitiob ( 403,222 )
Seat 8: pktsebens ( 380,156 )
Trny:63268622 Level:26
Blinds-Antes(7,500/15,000 -1,500)
BetAndLooz posts ante [1,500]
actyper posts ante [1,500]
mwapemitiob posts ante [1,500]
extremistan posts ante [1,500]
Maharet posts ante [1,500]
TomasGeorge posts ante [1,500]
Proud2BadOnk posts ante [1,500]
pktsebens posts ante [1,500]
DinRin posts ante [1,500]
borromias posts ante [1,500]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to actyper [ Kd Td ]
mwapemitiob folds
extremistan folds
Maharet raises [30,000]
TomasGeorge folds
Proud2BadOnk folds
pktsebens folds
DinRin calls [30,000]
borromias folds
BetAndLooz folds
actyper calls [15,000]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, 6h, 6d ]
actyper checks
Maharet checks
DinRin bets [210,000]
Comments
could be seeing it wrong but i think especially at the final table we don't want to do this to ourselves and see 22 or AdXd......
I was thinking the same thing. The squeeze play here looks good and you still have some type of hand if they happen to call.
I am not just calling preflop (anymore,
M: actyper = 6.8, DinRin = 6.4, Maharet = 29.
With DinRin pretty much going all-in on the flop, you need ~39% equity (210,246 / 535,992) to make a call +cEV. Let's say that Maharet's raising range is ~18% of hands and DinRin's range is ~9% of hands; the equities on the flop would be:
Kd Td - 39.8%
DinRin's 9% - 36.1%
Maharet's 18% - 24.1%.
In the likely case that Maharet folds after the two virtual all-ins, you are getting a +EV coin-flip:
Kd Td - 47.8%
DinRin's 9% - 52.2%.
Even if DinRin's preflop calling range is only be the top 4% of hands (e.g., 99+,AQs+,AKo), you are getting the right price to call.
Kd Td - 41.1%
99+,AQs+,AKo - 58.9%.
By the way, with the preflop ranges above, squeezing with KdTd is probably -EV.
The flop changes the entire hand....you have new information that is totally being ignored in your analysis. We're making the assumption that DinRin is shoving his entire preflop calling range. Also your DinRin isn't calling just the top 9% of hands. Out of the top 9% of all hands, he's 3 bet-shoving a large portion of that range.
Also at a final table of majors, it's more important to consider $EV and not chipEV.
As for the hand itself....would be better to know some history. If DinRin is a good player, it's a fold preflop. If he's bad and if Mah is active....then jamming preflop is fine.
On the flop, once he shoves, you usually will have ~50% equity vs his value range. There's not many flushes that can be in his range for him to flat preflop, and ship this flop with your blockers. AdQd, AdJd are really the only two flush draw hands he can have (and without knowing his tendencies...AQs could easily have shipped pre)...as all other diamond combos should fold preflop. Aside from the flush draws, the most obviously holdings are mid pocket pairs. Against that range....it's close to a coinflip.
Would need to know table dynamics to have a better idea as to which way to lean as getting it in on a flip is something I prefer not to do with the ICM considerations. If it's a tough final table, I think you have no choice but to call....against weaker opponents...I can find a fold. This is a hand where vpip/pfr numbers could significantly impact my end decision.
Edit - Looked at your stack size again...with your 16bbs...swings it towards a call more often than not.
The flop was perfect for my hand, and was fully intended to go with it. I don't think I'm short enough to donkout shove so was planning to check shove.
I decided to fold based on the fact that the table was going to be extremely aggro pre and figured I'd have a better ev preflot spot to shove rather than this at best a flip spot here.
but with one person to act and the possiblity of being totally dominated I'm guessing ICM consideration makes this a clear fold....
but i think Rich is right though if we call pre this is the flop to get it in on but I'm thinking its a fold pre too....the chips we are spending here almost equate to a raise/fold...and our two issues with this hand are being dominated by TT or a better Kx hand.....or by AdXd
Edit: also like to say i wouldn't know because i don't know what a final table is...and that isn't this thread just a thinly veiled ft brag?
Maybe, but are you really willing to give up 100k in the pot by folding at this point?
Without solid info, it's probably just a preflop fold. Since hitting a King or second pair with the 10 would put you in a guessing game postflop, and even when you hit as good as flop as you have here we end up folding. Also, there's very few value hands in Mah's range to raise preflop, and not c-bet this flop. He has to have either 22 or 6x. All other hands like flush draws+overs or pocket pairs should be betting this flop 100% of the time. When he checks one of the drier boards with these stack sizes it's usually a pure give up.
i don't think the initial flatter can really flat anything properly here tho either...
Yeah the flatter has me thinking too, thats why I said is shove a thought here. I think maybe with a little history with this guy we would be able to know if its a shove a better. I just dont like calling preflop with this short of a stack, makes me uncomfortable lol I think you have to fold when he shoves though, I agree with your thought process on that.