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line vs reg...
villain is big pimpin 777 if that matters...worried hell put me one ak and snap any mid pp...
Poker Stars, $50 + $5 NL Hold'em Tournament, 1,400/2,800 Blinds, 350 Ante, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
MP2: 216,916
CO: 16,684
BTN: 81,653
SB: 123,433
BB: 37,629
JodaB. (UTG): 79,641
UTG+1: 77,490
UTG+2: 255,322
MP1: 55,218
Pre-Flop: (7,350) Q
A
dealt to JodaB. (UTG)
JodaB. raises to 6,300, 3 folds, MP2 calls 6,300, 4 folds
Flop: (19,950) 3 9
3 (2 Players)
JodaB. checks, MP2 bets 12,550, JodaB???
Poker Stars, $50 + $5 NL Hold'em Tournament, 1,400/2,800 Blinds, 350 Ante, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
MP2: 216,916
CO: 16,684
BTN: 81,653
SB: 123,433
BB: 37,629
JodaB. (UTG): 79,641
UTG+1: 77,490
UTG+2: 255,322
MP1: 55,218
Pre-Flop: (7,350) Q
A dealt to JodaB. (UTG)JodaB. raises to 6,300, 3 folds, MP2 calls 6,300, 4 folds
Flop: (19,950) 3
9 3 (2 Players)JodaB. checks, MP2 bets 12,550, JodaB???
Comments
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A cbet seems to be in order I suppose bt now I'm pretty lost and probably ned up folding, if we were deeper I'd like a checkraise if you check since his hand is pretty face up at that point as 66 through JJ but good tournament players are pretty used to dealing with shorter stacks spazzing and getting stubborn and a shove would look a lot like that
Edit; there's obviously a chance he's putting pressure on you by taking a stab here but given positions I have to assume he likes his hand preflop which limits the amount of airstabbing that can be done
I think this may be true vs a lot of $55 freezeout opponents, but not vs this particular reg. You gave us his vpip/pfr, but I think his Fold to flop cbet % in position is equally if not more important, and I bet its far lower than you think. When he calls you otf, I assume you'll lose this pot w/o pairing up almost every time.
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his fold to cbet % is important, but not really for the decision of whether or not to cbet this flop with out 7-10% opening range but rather for how often we want to assume he's floating us on this uneventful board and checkshove or double barrel turn. In the extreme that he's playing like 70/50 and his fold to cbet is 5% for example there's no way my stack is not going in postflop and a low fold to cbet will not discourage me from cbetting, especially low boards
the problem here is im outa position vs the best and the other problem is be flatting he virtually wins the hand...
oh....and not enough hands for a fold to cbet stat and certainly not one for position....
lol you're being ridiculous now, if he never folds to a cbet here he's pretty terrible. you're just generally afraid of cbetting light
like his range is AX's broadway suited, pairs, and sc........it might be smaller prob not really wider...and hes floating or raising the entire range....
you think its crazy to say that hes not ever folding to a cbet.....?
and ya ive got caught not cbetting my 3bet pots in standard spots......so its likely that i miss spots like this too...but if he wasn't a top player id prob play this to the river at least....
yeah i think that's a crazy assuption, if your right however you need to cbet and plan to get your stack in on the flop or the turn with your entire range. If I'm playing tight from ep and get into this spot on that board and he ever raises that flop my stack in going in his eye, there's like 3 hands that makes sense for villain to raise here, one is A3, one is 99 and one is AA so I'm not worried whatsoever about getting my cbet raised
but we must admit that we can't outplay our oppenent after getting flatted and were oop and didn't hit the flop.....
is that a challenge?
Checking that flop is just signal your tail is going between your legs. Lead out for control if nothing else.
and i can still raise aqo because he doesn't flat often..
But do you really think he flats with a monster??
Then ask yourself why that is. he's not a god, you figure out what he's thinking, what he's trying to accomplish and you adjust to it. In this spot for example, why is it that you feel like you can't gain chips vs his calling range?
we gotta make this guy make a mistake....in order to truly gain....and thats just not likely i would think.....
i would be ignore the stone cold stats facts if i thought i could gain against this guy oop like this...but maybe not...
i never considered kqs....???
are you really that scared to play a flop with a guy who has better results than you ^^'
Edit: you do realise that when he's flatting pre he's most likely looking for ways to win the pot postflop, when you check to him he can easily bet his entire range
Let's go through what we've deduced.
1. villain has a big stack and is in "huehuehuehue, I run over teh table" mode
2. we have a legit hand and we're opening ep for value
3. we get one of the better flops for our hand and just generally a flop that's good for the mean of our ep range and also a flop that is unlikely to hit villain unless he starts the hand with a pair (and he's not setmining on us here given stacks)
4. Our cbet needs to work like 50% of the time if not less in order to be profitable
5. we suspect villain will try to mindlessly make plays for the pot to guard his potentially bad flat pre giving us a really good spot to 3bet shove flop or checkshove turn light
6. we have strong reason to suspect that villain isn't flatting the top of his range since you said he was playing loose and loose player + good player = player aware of own image = player with healthy value 3bet range preflop rather than play who takes 10s to the flop with the plan of getting it in on any good flop
I feel like I can give you a lot of reasons to make your stand here and almost no reasons not to make your stand here. checking isn't really the best start of your "take a stand" line if you're not inducing with 10s+. If you cbet there's a good chance villain goes "ok, I was gonna make plays for this pot but I can rep absolutely nothing here so I better just fold now"