Sunday Million 5th Anniversary Strategy
Ok, so I said I'd give some tips for the shot-takers out there so here it goes. I'm going to try to keep it really basic and *mostly* try to keep you out of trouble but also not get afraid of a bigger buyin. Don't hold me responsible if you do something here and it causes you to bust out, lol, because you still have to play a bit of poker.
General:
-Always bet at least half pot and you shouldn't get into too much trouble. Don't overbet unless you have the nuts and it's the river or something, don't overbet flops and turns.
-3BB is a good open raise size until antes kick in or you fall below 20BB. Add 1 BB for every limper if you're pumping it up wit ha premium. One antes kick in 2.5BB is fine. Don't raise more or less pre regardless. 3BB pre-ante (unless you get short, then lower it to 2.5), 2.5BB after antes. Got AA under the gun? Keep it the same size. Trying to steal with something junky in late position? Keep it the same size.
-For raising or re-raising, going 3 times the size of the other person's bet is usually fine, but bigger is fine too post flop on wet boards. We're not raising or re-raising with bluffs though, only value.
Early game:
Hands we're looking to get in pre: KK,AA
-Get reads! Look for people playing a lot of pots passively or showing down really awful hands that they played from early positions. These are the guys you want to put moe money in against when you're in a pot. Look your table up individually on OPR (official poker rankings) Are they up 30k+ over 2000+ games? Don't mess with them. Do they have a higher average buyin over a lot of games? Don't mess with them (even if they're down money, the swings at highstakes are sick so they might still better than their stats indicate). Is there average buyin under $10 and they've played under 1000 games? These are the guys you wanna look to stack. Identify the fish and take them to value town.
-Don't bluff! If you're heads up you can continuation bet, if you're not just give up. Don't 2-barrel unless you REALLY know what you're doing. 2-barrelling after an A-high flop is almost always an awful play with air. Bluffing is not going to give you a shot at this tournament. Taking people to value town and waiting for hands might.
-Tight is right. You might be a bit nervous playing above your head a bit, and you have to realize that some of the plays you're used to making and hands you're used to playing at the lower levels might not be profitable at the higher ones. You're not going to be able to outplay as many people, and more people can potentially outplay you. There's still a lot of fish, don't get me wrong, but don't overestimate your ability.
-If you get re-raised let it go unless it's KK+. Most of the time unless the re-raise is really tiny don't continue with out the nuts. Calling re-raises early game is usually a good way to lose chips since the usually have it, and when you call it means you don't have it. AK doesn't play well when you get re-raised. IF you get re-raised and have KK or AA, making it 3 times their re-raise should be fine. Try to get it all in before the flop.
Your starting hands should look like:
-pairs 22-TT. Flop sets and win. Play them fast on drawy boards, don't play them too slow on dry boards. Even if there are no draws you still want to get your money in, the earlier the better to build the pot. If your set can only be beaten by another set, pile the money in. Limping these pairs is fine if you're not comfortable raising them in early position. Raise them in late position still because stealing blinds is sweet even early.
-premiums, AQ+,JJ+. Raise these always if you're first in, don't limp behind if there's limpers. Pump up the pot (usually 3BB + 1BB for each limper is fine at any blind level). Bet flop/bet turn/bet river when you hit top pair good kicker or have an overpair all 3-streets, but if you get raised usually it's fine to just let it go instead of playing a guessing game. You don't want to be stacking off 100BB+ with 1 pair.
Hands to watch out for:
-Don't raise KQ/AJ or worse in early position. These hands are marginal and even if you can play them profitable at your stakes it'll be too hard to play them here.
-suited connectors. I know they look good, but again, they're harder to play than you think. The ONLY suited connectors you should be playing in 90% of circumstances are 67s-KQs, and only after there's been a raise and call if you're in position, or a raise and 2 calls if you're in the blinds. Don't get involved with 74s, 53s, KTs. I probably can't play these hands profitably a lot of times and I play these stakes regularly, so you probably can't either. We're not looking to outplay people, we're looking for the easy money.
General:
-Always bet at least half pot and you shouldn't get into too much trouble. Don't overbet unless you have the nuts and it's the river or something, don't overbet flops and turns.
-3BB is a good open raise size until antes kick in or you fall below 20BB. Add 1 BB for every limper if you're pumping it up wit ha premium. One antes kick in 2.5BB is fine. Don't raise more or less pre regardless. 3BB pre-ante (unless you get short, then lower it to 2.5), 2.5BB after antes. Got AA under the gun? Keep it the same size. Trying to steal with something junky in late position? Keep it the same size.
-For raising or re-raising, going 3 times the size of the other person's bet is usually fine, but bigger is fine too post flop on wet boards. We're not raising or re-raising with bluffs though, only value.
Early game:
Hands we're looking to get in pre: KK,AA
-Get reads! Look for people playing a lot of pots passively or showing down really awful hands that they played from early positions. These are the guys you want to put moe money in against when you're in a pot. Look your table up individually on OPR (official poker rankings) Are they up 30k+ over 2000+ games? Don't mess with them. Do they have a higher average buyin over a lot of games? Don't mess with them (even if they're down money, the swings at highstakes are sick so they might still better than their stats indicate). Is there average buyin under $10 and they've played under 1000 games? These are the guys you wanna look to stack. Identify the fish and take them to value town.
-Don't bluff! If you're heads up you can continuation bet, if you're not just give up. Don't 2-barrel unless you REALLY know what you're doing. 2-barrelling after an A-high flop is almost always an awful play with air. Bluffing is not going to give you a shot at this tournament. Taking people to value town and waiting for hands might.
-Tight is right. You might be a bit nervous playing above your head a bit, and you have to realize that some of the plays you're used to making and hands you're used to playing at the lower levels might not be profitable at the higher ones. You're not going to be able to outplay as many people, and more people can potentially outplay you. There's still a lot of fish, don't get me wrong, but don't overestimate your ability.
-If you get re-raised let it go unless it's KK+. Most of the time unless the re-raise is really tiny don't continue with out the nuts. Calling re-raises early game is usually a good way to lose chips since the usually have it, and when you call it means you don't have it. AK doesn't play well when you get re-raised. IF you get re-raised and have KK or AA, making it 3 times their re-raise should be fine. Try to get it all in before the flop.
Your starting hands should look like:
-pairs 22-TT. Flop sets and win. Play them fast on drawy boards, don't play them too slow on dry boards. Even if there are no draws you still want to get your money in, the earlier the better to build the pot. If your set can only be beaten by another set, pile the money in. Limping these pairs is fine if you're not comfortable raising them in early position. Raise them in late position still because stealing blinds is sweet even early.
-premiums, AQ+,JJ+. Raise these always if you're first in, don't limp behind if there's limpers. Pump up the pot (usually 3BB + 1BB for each limper is fine at any blind level). Bet flop/bet turn/bet river when you hit top pair good kicker or have an overpair all 3-streets, but if you get raised usually it's fine to just let it go instead of playing a guessing game. You don't want to be stacking off 100BB+ with 1 pair.
Hands to watch out for:
-Don't raise KQ/AJ or worse in early position. These hands are marginal and even if you can play them profitable at your stakes it'll be too hard to play them here.
-suited connectors. I know they look good, but again, they're harder to play than you think. The ONLY suited connectors you should be playing in 90% of circumstances are 67s-KQs, and only after there's been a raise and call if you're in position, or a raise and 2 calls if you're in the blinds. Don't get involved with 74s, 53s, KTs. I probably can't play these hands profitably a lot of times and I play these stakes regularly, so you probably can't either. We're not looking to outplay people, we're looking for the easy money.
Comments
QQ and AK become great to get all in pre after we get below 50BB around this time
Starting Hands:
Ok we survived the early game with hopefully 75%+ of our starting stack. Blinds are higher, like 100/200 to 200/400 (still no antes). We cut out the suited connectors and pairs under 99 now totally unless we have 60BB+ and so do a few other people in the pots. We can still open those hands if we're first in the pot in late position. We're opening any time we're in the pot, no limping ever. AQ+/99+ is a good under the gun opening range, no wider.
General:
-When we fall below 50BB, it's rarely gonna be a mistake to get in QQ or AK vs. 1 person pre-flop. If we're under 40, it's usually a mistake not to. Play them fast, get them in, don't be afraid.
-Generally the same strategy as early game except even tighter since we aren't trying to speculate and see flops. We want to make it to antes where the real fun starts.
Our raise size should go from 3BB to 2.5BB or less once antes kick in. AK and JJ+ become the new nuts, but more hands gain value as we get shorter.
-Ok now things are going to vary depending on our stacks. In general though, AK and JJ+ become the nuts almost no matter how deep we are. Unless we're over 50BB Deep and there's a lot of early position action, we're trying to re-raise/get it in with these hands. Play them fast, get them in, win flips.
Our starting hands:
-KQ and AJ become fine to open under the gun. Our stealing hands from middle position are going to be suited broadways, good suited aces, KQ, AJ or better.
-In late position we can steal with any broadway hand, any suited ace, any pair, some GOOD suited connectors (87s-T9s, sometimes T8s/J9s/K9s/Q9s on the button). Suited connectors really lose their value though in the late game since we're not deep enough to flop draws and chase, we need to get money in on early streets.
Restealing:
-Once we fall below 30BB AQ suited and TT become fine to get in vs. a single raise from any position.
-Once we fall below 20BB AQ off and 99 become fine to get in vs. a single raise from any position.
-If we have under 25BB and there's someone stealing from last position a fair bit, it's fine to jam any suited broadways, good suited aces (A8s or better), any pair, AJo or better, 98s and T9s. These are all premium resteal hands and with 25BB or less vs. a late position raise there aren't many better spots to chip up.
Facing resteals:
-When people get under 20BB they're going to start jamming on our late position raises. Never fold AJ, KQ, 66+ versus an obvious resteal. If it's not so obvious (we raised in middle position, or the shover is tight) then cut out KQ offsuit, AJ offsuit and 66. No one's tight enough to fold AQ or 88 to a resteal unless we re-raised in early position.
Shortstacking:
So we fell below 15BB and we're in push/fold mode. Push/fold is pretty complex but most of you probably have some idea, but if not here are a couple ranges to give you guidelines:
12BB or less under the gun: 44+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ J9s+ T9s
12BB or less in the hijack: 22+ A2s+ A7o+ A5o K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s 87s
12BB or less on the button: 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K8o+ Q5s+ Q9o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 96s+ 86s+ 75s+ 65s 54s
12BB or less in the small blind: Uno cards, napkins, any 1 card. Just JAM.
These are really general but basically if you're a bit shorter or a bit later position loosen the hands up by 1 or 2 hands more for each one you should be shoving (QTs becomes Q9s in a bit later position or shorter), if you're a bit deeper or in earlier position tighten then up a hand or 2 for each one.
nice work
Only thing I would add that I like to do on occasion play a little SAG as well.
(Either Selectively or Situationally AGressive). Some of you who have played with me much live will know what I mean. Probably doesn't really have a place in an online $215. buyin but certainly does live.
Guess I meandered a bit there but forgive an old guy... Very very nice guide though, one of the most concise and accurate around. As Richard says, if everyone plays this way there would be no money to be made and we would only trade money around with the rake eventually taking it all.
What do you mean exactly by SAG? Kind of like LAG but only at times?
Thanks for the kind words, but the games definitely would not be dead if everyone played like this, haha, it's definitely not perfect.
I'm just trying to get some of the important things across like don't play too many hands early when you probably aren't quite as good as you think you are, or won't be as profitable as your normal stakes. As well as not getting AK or QQ in for infinity blinds early when it's probably optimal at $5 games.
The Bubble
Don't change your strategy and make bad folds because of the bubble. Buuut, it's fine to stall every hand when you get close if you're under 20BB and increase your chances of cashing by 10-20% or something.
-If we're in pushbot mode, you play your same strategy but you stall the max amount of time each decision, and if you actually have to shove use your entire timebank. Don't fold hands you would normally shove because of the bubble.
-If we're 20-30BB and in reshove mode, same idea, stall and stick your chips in the same as if you would away from the bubble. Don't fear the bubble, you're still a long way off the real money.
-If we're deeper than that, we can play slightly looser and try to steal a bit extra since most people will be playing scared money and not wanting to mess with us.
In The Money
The biggest strategy change [in the money] is for a deeper stack, stealing is highly profitable deep in majors because everyone plays far tighter than any other tournament online.
Ok for a level or 2 after you cash everyone's gonna be going crazy and busting cuz they blinded down to 2BB. Hopefully we didn't do that. Just play your normal strategy though and wait for a lot of the micro stacks to go and people to calm down a bit. The structure probably just got a lot worse with all the stalling around the bubble and it's a bit of a crap shoot now. If we still have over 25BB this is great, we should open up our stealing ranges quite a bit versus people who are tighter to our left. This is the best time ever to chip up by just opening and folding to resistance (unless we're getting over 2:1 on calling a shove). If we have a reshove or push/fold stack, just play your normal game. But the biggest strategy change is for a deeper stack, stealing is highly profitable deep in majors because everyone plays far tighter than any other tournament online.
In alot of these tourneys if guys get 3 bet, they end up shipping or folding.. any value in flat calling?
Um, basically from a $EV perspective increasing our cashing frequency by stalling with these types of stacks is actually pretty significant. It probably adds like 5-10% onto our long-term roi with these stacks near the bubble.
Like I think if we could just stand up from the table and for 2-3 orbits before the bubble our return would be way higher than playing with these stacks almost no matter how good we are. Since we can't just stand up from the table, stalling is the next best thing.
This point is probably arguable, but the reason I included it in this strategy post geared towards shot-takers is that min-cashing is significantly more important for most of these people than high-stakes regulars. If the $350 you get for cashing is 5-10% of your roll it's legit to try and maximize the times you get that $350 from a bankroll building type perspective. That could be 20-30 buyins for your normal stakes which is like final tabling something.
For the purposes of this post, no, there's no value in flat calling, 3-betting light, or doing anything out of line like that. Most people taking shots probably won't know the proper times to do it and who to do it against, etc etc, it's far too advanced to even get into. It's way easier and more optimal for most people who don't normally play these stakes to just play ABC and wait for hands and get paid.
Poker Stars, $10 + $1 NL Hold'em Tournament, 10/20 Blinds, 9 Players
Yoda (BTN): 3,000
SB: 3,000
BB: 3,000
UTG: 3,000
UTG+1: 3,000
UTG+2: 3,000
MP1: 3,000
MP2: 3,000
CO: 3,000
Pre-Flop: (30) J
4 folds, MP2 raises to 80, CO folds, Yoda calls 80, SB raises to 400, BB folds, MP2 calls 320, Yoda raises to 3,000 and is All-In, SB calls 2,600 and is All-In, MP2 folds
Flop: (6,420) Q
Turn: (6,420) Q
River: (6,420) K
Results: 6,420 Pot
Yoda showed J
SB showed K
If you play loosey goosey you better hope there is some luck running with you.
I believe that most good players will play a lot differently than they would playing a 1-5$ micro or GTD tourney.
Be nice to final table this one at least. Would be a decent pay day for sure.
Good Luck to all who are playing.
fwiw I haven't done that in months.....brain farty
Also, shoving atc BvB is an adjustment to people calling incorrectly right, I've never seen anyone adjust far enough to shove atc 12 BB's or less though. Is there any logic behind this?
Should be stickied in the MTT section for sure.
You need to do more. Share the wealth of information. I'm sure between yourself and a few others here, you could bring all our games up significantly.
Hmmmm, perhaps that's the reason you all don't.
Yea, I'm just assuming that most people are a) not calling correctly, and b) calling less correctly since it's the sunday million 5th anniversary and they're being tighter than usual. I think on average it will be +EV and when it's not it will only be a slight mistake in most cases.