Odd Odds Question

CerberusCerberus
in General Poker Chat
I read this tonight:

Gutshot straight draw hitting by river:17%;1 in 6; need 5:1 pot odds

Does that seem wrong to anyone else? Thought it was way worse odds to hit that. Asking because I was given 6:1 on a flop K108 rain w/Q9h (no H on board) from position against two opponents. In my head, I did the math at roughly 16% (rule of 4) and called as I thought the math was right (90 player $1.40 KO, I was table chip leader, roughly 4% of my stack to call).

Comments

  • UnknownUnknown
    i think you rounded a little to make it seem better but the real consideration here is that you are only getting 6 to 1 to see the turn......you still may have to call future bets to see the river...
  • CerberusCerberus
    Agreed. I was calling to see the turn. If I missed, I was done. Here's the killer. Turn is 8. They both check. Instead of putting pressure on, like I should have, I check. J on the river. Sweet! One guy bets 900, other guy quickly flat calls. I'm thinking something is screwy so I flat. Both flip over AQ. FML. That's what I get for chasing a gutshot lol
  • UnknownUnknown
    Cerberus wrote: »
    Agreed. I was calling to see the turn. If I missed, I was done.
    just to clarify you used rule of 2 then right?
    Cerberus wrote: »
    AQ. FML. That's what I get for chasing a gutshot lol

    reverse implied odds huh
  • HVEEPOKERHVEEPOKER
    Sorry Cerebus, I lol'ed at this but I am not laughing at you. Gut shots where I need a J unless it has hit I don't chase anymore. Especially with just the river card to see.
    Like a lot of people They never come when you need them and call. They seem to show up a lot when you fold the hand.
    I also see it a lot with 2 others both having A-Q .
    A bunch of them are going to jump all over this post too.

    Here it comes................
  • getem76getem76
    is chasing your draw for 90 chips right? depending you have more to hit than just the striaght, you got screwed in low levels is the results and thats poker.....id have called the 90....not sure about the river bet
  • PokerKaiPokerKai
    Cerberus wrote: »
    I read this tonight:

    Gutshot straight draw hitting by river:17%;1 in 6; need 5:1 pot odds

    Does that seem wrong to anyone else? Thought it was way worse odds to hit that. Asking because I was given 6:1 on a flop K108 rain w/Q9h (no H on board) from position against two opponents. In my head, I did the math at roughly 16% (rule of 4) and called as I thought the math was right (90 player $1.40 KO, I was table chip leader, roughly 4% of my stack to call).

    Its correct that your 5 to 1 to catch a gutter by the river. However, thats not the problem your dealing with. Your only taking one card off.

    47 unknown cards in the deck, 4 jacks left.
    11.75 to 1 to catch only on the turn.

    Also you need to discount your outs a bit because they are not to the nuts and is susceptible to redraws. So realistically you need to make closer to 13 to 1.

    If your getting 6 to 1 on the flop...suppose its 600 in the middle with 100 for you to call. Youve got to be fairly confident you can get 700 more chips on the subsequent streets (implied odds) in order to make a sole gutshot worthwhile.

    Not a terrible call. But your not thinking about it in the right way.
  • CerberusCerberus
    Thank you! This made much more sense when you wrote that out. I thought my initial math was right but that there was something I was missing.
  • UnknownUnknown
    PokerKai wrote: »

    Not a terrible call. But your not thinking about it in the right way.

    btw....randomest poster of the year......goes to.....
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    darbday wrote: »
    btw....randomest poster of the year......goes to.....

    You do know who Kai is don't you?
  • UnknownUnknown
    compuease wrote: »
    You do know who Kai is don't you?
    no just that i want him to continue posting.....^-^
  • wildbill7145wildbill7145
    You should. Google is your friend.
  • PokerKaiPokerKai
    darbday wrote: »
    btw....randomest poster of the year......goes to.....

    im a sucker for odds posts...what can i say

    darbday wrote: »
    no just that i want him to continue posting.....^-^

    i prefer lurking. check my join date...2005 baby. and only 300 posts. but 300 posts of quality.
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    I have never been so disappointed in you Darbday, not knowing who pokerkai is, geeesh!;)
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    philliivey wrote: »
    I have never been so disappointed in you Darbday, not knowing who pokerkai is, geeesh!;)

    Kai is so 2005! :)
  • T8urmoneyT8urmoney
    compuease wrote: »
    You do know who Kai is don't you?

    2nd best in Edmonton I hear
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    compuease wrote: »
    You do know who Kai is don't you?
    T8urmoney wrote: »
    2nd best in Edmonton I hear

    couple of guys going HU for rolzz I hear...
  • MiloMilo
    compuease wrote: »
    Kai is so 2005! :)

    And only 300 posts? Slacker . . . :D
  • T8urmoneyT8urmoney
    compuease wrote: »
    couple of guys going HU for rolzz I hear...

    ha ha.....no tks....I'll leave that for Philli
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