coin flip = bad or good?

Gord

I was recently playing a MTT when this hand came up...

At the time I put him on an overpair and thus decided that it was 50/50 or I was a bit ahead so I called. However after i made the play i realized that the pot really wasn't very big at all and I could have picked a better spot to put my money in. The average chip stack was about 1600-1700 so I really was in no hurry to make a move or double up. Should i lay down this hand to such a big overbet when i really haven't committed much to the pot?

PokerStars Game #1066262237: Tournament #4454137, Hold'em No Limit - Level I
(10/20) - 2005/01/11 - 18:13:09 (ET)
Table '4454137 5' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: paperboy (1440 in chips)
Seat 2: vcci (1010 in chips)
Seat 3: Rodeykilla (1550 in chips)
Seat 4: jbineux (1490 in chips)
Seat 6: Mooshoo (2580 in chips)
Seat 7: Beagle_Boy (1320 in chips)
Seat 8: Travo (1380 in chips)
Seat 9: dtaylor55 (1580 in chips)
Beagle_Boy: posts small blind 10
Travo: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mooshoo [9c 7c]
dtaylor55: folds
paperboy: folds
vcci: raises 60 to 80
Rodeykilla: calls 80
jbineux: folds
Mooshoo: calls 80
Beagle_Boy: calls 70
Travo: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [6c 8h 3c]
Beagle_Boy: checks
Travo: checks
vcci: checks
Rodeykilla: bets 1470 and is all-in
Mooshoo: calls 1470
Beagle_Boy: folds
Travo: folds
vcci: folds
*** TURN *** [6c 8h 3c] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [6c 8h 3c Ks] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Rodeykilla: shows [Js Jh] (a pair of Jacks)
Mooshoo: shows [9c 7c] (high card Ace)
vcci said, "gh"
Rodeykilla collected 3340 from pot
Rodeykilla said, "ty"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3340 | Rake 0
Board [6c 8h 3c Ks As]
Seat 1: paperboy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: vcci folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Rodeykilla showed [Js Jh] and won (3340) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 4: jbineux folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Mooshoo (button) showed [9c 7c] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 7: Beagle_Boy (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: Travo (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: dtaylor55 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

derksen

oohh, tough call. With that many outs on both straight and flush... not sure what I would have done. I can see how the overpair seemed obvious. Changed my mind... I would have called as well with that many outs.

Chugs

I'll put it this way, i would have been more comfortable pushing all-in then calling all-in despite the fact that you have a great set of draws. Still the guy who goes all-in over bet the pot by a huge margin. The fact that you weren't going to be all-in makes the decison a bit easier.


I do like your pre-flop call though with a nice suited one-gapper on the button.

I would likely fold though in the face of the all-in, but that's because i don't want to 'gamble' that large a part of my stack on the first level in what appears to be a non-rebuy tourney.

RAM_Eh

IMO I would have called. A straight and a flush draw, for me is an easy call as you were only calling for 1/2 of your chips.

I know tournaments are all about survival. If you were calling for all of your chips I would have laid it down. As you said, you had plenty of time.

Rob M.

Soup66

Id probably call, you have pretty good odds of hitting either your flush or your straight

wader

With a big bet like this you hope that your opponent has an over pair and he's trying to take the pot down wright now. You can pretty much rule out a set or even two pair because of the big bet. Your 9 probablly is'nt any good if you hit unless he has something like A8c (but im sure he wouldn't push with this hand). So you have 15 outs, you'll win this hand about 55% of the time. You had huge draw with this hand and I would have done the exact same thing.
Wader

sweetjimmi

Would you make the same call at WSOP? I don't like the call whatsoever! Your stack is not deep enough for this gamble...your chips you have are much too valuable at this point. Now say you had $4,000 plus then I think a call is okay. On the otherside I don't like the other player's push since you will too often be called by a hand similar to yours. Way to much gambling for a non-rebuy for the stacks that you both had. Your both deep enough to avoid racing! Fold and save your chips for better situations. This is assuming this is not a rebuy though since in a rebuy I am much more willing to gamble in a situation like this.

P.S. What if the other player pushed with the nut flush draw (or for that matter A10c)? That would eliminate many of your outs and have you terrible shape.

CrazyJoe113

sweetjimmi wrote:

P.S. What if the other player pushed with the nut flush draw (or for that matter A10c)? That would eliminate many of your outs and have you terrible shape.

that's what i was thinking actually, when someone pushes all in when 2 flop cards are suited, first thing goes through my head is semi-bluff w/nut flush draw. I saw Josh Arieh make a similar call to this at the WSOP and i didnt really agree with it for the same reason, he got moved in on with top pair and he called with a flush and outside straight draw. He hit his outs, but it was very possible his opponent had the bigger flush draw as opposed to what he did have. I would be very tempted to call, but I would DEFINITELY consider I was up against a nut flush draw.

BBC Z

that's what i was thinking actually, when someone pushes all in when 2 flop cards are suited, first thing goes through my head is semi-bluff w/nut flush draw. I saw Josh Arieh make a similar call to this at the WSOP and i didnt really agree with it for the same reason, he got moved in on with top pair and he called with a flush and outside straight draw. He hit his outs, but it was very possible his opponent had the bigger flush draw as opposed to what he did have. I would be very tempted to call, but I would DEFINITELY consider I was up against a nut flush draw.

Talking strictly from probabilities, it's far more likely that the player has made a hand that is vulnerable to the draw (TPTK) than the nut flush draw. If thats the first thing that goes through your head, you might want to re-think your logic.

wader

I agree with BBC. This is a great time to take a gamble......mooshoo will still have about $1000 left his opponent is all-in not mooshoo, and the blinds are still relatively small mooshoo if he looses he will still have about 50xbb, so I still think he made the wright call.
Wader

CrazyJoe113

BBC Z wrote:

Talking strictly from probabilities, it's far more likely that the player has made a hand that is vulnerable to the draw (TPTK) than the nut flush draw. If thats the first thing that goes through your head, you might want to re-think your logic.

i agree with what you are saying, but if you have a made hand you want to be called since you have the best of it over a draw(with a few exceptions), all-in with a flush draw is such a common play that it definitely has to be considered.

Personally, when I make a hand, I make every effort to induce someone to move in on me, and tend to move in more when i'm looking for a fold then a call. Obviously not every time, strategy changes, but in general terms.

BBC Z

i agree with what you are saying, but if you have a made hand you want to be called since you have the best of it over a draw(with a few exceptions), all-in with a flush draw is such a common play that it definitely has to be considered.

If you have the made hand on a suited flop, you have to price the flush draws out of the pot. That usually involves large pot overbets on the flop.

I think assuming that a large bet on the flop means flush draw is dangerous thinking that will lose you money in the long run.

SirWatts

BBC Z wrote:

If you have the made hand on a suited flop, you have to price the flush draws out of the pot. That usually involves large pot overbets on the flop.

I think assuming that a large bet on the flop means flush draw is dangerous thinking that will lose you money in the long run.

Yet so many players think this way. One of my favourite plays lately is to push all in if I flop middle or bottom set on a 2-suited board and watch the fools call with top pair thinking they are at least a coin flip against my draw.

BrentMoreau

for me it will honestly depend on how i'm feeling. gambling mood or not. you're about 50/50 to take this pot down with the given outs. so you have to look at how much you like those chips in front of you. you're not really pot committed, as the blinds are so low and everyone in front of you has folded, so for me it will really depend on how i'm feeling about my chances in the tournament at that point, and other related variables. just my 2 cents

Dave Scharf

Should i lay down this hand to such a big overbet when i really haven't committed much to the pot?

My thoughts as we go.

PokerStars Game #1066262237: Tournament #4454137, Hold'em No Limit - Level I
(10/20) - 2005/01/11 - 18:13:09 (ET)
Table '4454137 5' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: paperboy (1440 in chips)
Seat 2: vcci (1010 in chips)
Seat 3: Rodeykilla (1550 in chips)
Seat 4: jbineux (1490 in chips)
Seat 6: Mooshoo (2580 in chips)
Seat 7: Beagle_Boy (1320 in chips)
Seat 8: Travo (1380 in chips)
Seat 9: dtaylor55 (1580 in chips)
Beagle_Boy: posts small blind 10
Travo: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mooshoo [9c 7c]
dtaylor55: folds
paperboy: folds
vcci: raises 60 to 80
Rodeykilla: calls 80
jbineux: folds
Mooshoo: calls 80
Beagle_Boy: calls 70
Travo: calls 60

***So far so good. I like seeing the flop with suited one gappers on the button.
*** FLOP *** [6c 8h 3c]

***Woohoo! Fifteen outs, maybe eighteen (maybe less)

Beagle_Boy: checks
Travo: checks
vcci: checks
Rodeykilla: bets 1470 and is all-in

***Pot is 1870 and I have to call 1470. It will leave me with 1000 if I call and lose. Ugh. Tough decision.

***I fold. Had he made a small bet and I had been able to move in hoping to add fold equity to the hand I probably would have tapped. But, his big move mean that I will have to finish with the best hand. It’s a coin flip for a lot of chips. I pass.

***What am I putting him on? Hmm… My guess is a hand that does not want to be called. But, any hand that doesn’t want to get called leaves me in a marginal position.

Mooshoo: calls 1470
Beagle_Boy: folds
Travo: folds
vcci: folds
*** TURN *** [6c 8h 3c] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [6c 8h 3c Ks] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Rodeykilla: shows [Js Jh] (a pair of Jacks)
Mooshoo: shows [9c 7c] (high card Ace)
vcci said, "gh"
Rodeykilla collected 3340 from pot
Rodeykilla said, "ty"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3340 | Rake 0
Board [6c 8h 3c Ks As]
Seat 1: paperboy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: vcci folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Rodeykilla showed [Js Jh] and won (3340) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 4: jbineux folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Mooshoo (button) showed [9c 7c] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 7: Beagle_Boy (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: Travo (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 9: dtaylor55 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

sweetjimmi

I like how Dave is analyzing this. It really doesn't matter what two hole cards (10 high has you beat right now and your still only about 50/50 to win the hand) your opponent has here. Your opponent made the first move against your unmade hand. If you want to gamble then gamble but I think an above average (or winning player) has a better chance of winning the tourney by just out playing your opponents in future hands.

Gord

Thanks for the responses guys
I guess I need to take a little more time with my decisions and decide if i really wanted to gamble off a huge portion of my stack when i could have picked better places.
I just saw the monster draw and i figured i had to call right away.

Dave Scharf

If the pot had been bigger or his bet smaller... gamble. But, I think I pass this one.