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i may be over thinking this one.....
can't get the hand converter to work here....but the question is whether calling the flop bet and shipping the turn is better than shoving over opp flop bet...
the though is that the villain will not fold the flop because the odds are so good, but may fold if he doesn't hit his draw on the turn, or may call with worse odds. It seems the villain mistake, with his range, will be larger if he sees a turn card and doesn't complete his draw.
if he does hit we can ship anyways and there would be no change....this would apply to flush draws and ak
it would be useful for sure i think if we were on a bubble or at the ft....
or am i crazy?
PokerStars Game #56583255419: Tournament #404011082, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1000/2000) - 2011/01/25 22:36:47 PT [2011/01/26 1:36:47 ET]
Table '404011082 99' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: pOmPaNoPiMp (70000 in chips)
Seat 2: zé iran (23914 in chips)
Seat 3: B-MoreOriole (58960 in chips)
Seat 4: forboon (41387 in chips)
Seat 5: ROYM2 (32060 in chips)
Seat 7: KnuSkool (38926 in chips)
Seat 8: Kleaner (34914 in chips)
Seat 9: Maltlicky (60812 in chips)
pOmPaNoPiMp: posts the ante 200
zé iran: posts the ante 200
B-MoreOriole: posts the ante 200
forboon: posts the ante 200
ROYM2: posts the ante 200
KnuSkool: posts the ante 200
Kleaner: posts the ante 200
Maltlicky: posts the ante 200
B-MoreOriole: posts small blind 1000
forboon: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to forboon [Qh Jd]
ROYM2: folds
KnuSkool: folds
Kleaner: folds
Maltlicky: folds
pOmPaNoPiMp: raises 2300 to 4300
zé iran: folds
B-MoreOriole: folds
forboon: calls 2300
*** FLOP *** [Jc Td 8c]
forboon: checks
pOmPaNoPiMp: bets 5600
forboon: raises 31287 to 36887 and is all-in
pOmPaNoPiMp: calls 31287
*** TURN *** [Jc Td 8c] [2d]
*** RIVER *** [Jc Td 8c 2d] [Ac]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
forboon: shows [Qh Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
pOmPaNoPiMp: shows [Ks Qd] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
pOmPaNoPiMp collected 84974 from pot
forboon finished the tournament in 58th place and received $113.44.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 84974 | Rake 0
Board [Jc Td 8c 2d Ac]
Seat 1: pOmPaNoPiMp showed [Ks Qd] and won (84974) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 2: zé iran (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: B-MoreOriole (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: forboon (big blind) showed [Qh Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: ROYM2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: KnuSkool folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Kleaner folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Maltlicky folded before Flop (didn't bet)
the though is that the villain will not fold the flop because the odds are so good, but may fold if he doesn't hit his draw on the turn, or may call with worse odds. It seems the villain mistake, with his range, will be larger if he sees a turn card and doesn't complete his draw.
if he does hit we can ship anyways and there would be no change....this would apply to flush draws and ak
it would be useful for sure i think if we were on a bubble or at the ft....
or am i crazy?
PokerStars Game #56583255419: Tournament #404011082, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1000/2000) - 2011/01/25 22:36:47 PT [2011/01/26 1:36:47 ET]
Table '404011082 99' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: pOmPaNoPiMp (70000 in chips)
Seat 2: zé iran (23914 in chips)
Seat 3: B-MoreOriole (58960 in chips)
Seat 4: forboon (41387 in chips)
Seat 5: ROYM2 (32060 in chips)
Seat 7: KnuSkool (38926 in chips)
Seat 8: Kleaner (34914 in chips)
Seat 9: Maltlicky (60812 in chips)
pOmPaNoPiMp: posts the ante 200
zé iran: posts the ante 200
B-MoreOriole: posts the ante 200
forboon: posts the ante 200
ROYM2: posts the ante 200
KnuSkool: posts the ante 200
Kleaner: posts the ante 200
Maltlicky: posts the ante 200
B-MoreOriole: posts small blind 1000
forboon: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to forboon [Qh Jd]
ROYM2: folds
KnuSkool: folds
Kleaner: folds
Maltlicky: folds
pOmPaNoPiMp: raises 2300 to 4300
zé iran: folds
B-MoreOriole: folds
forboon: calls 2300
*** FLOP *** [Jc Td 8c]
forboon: checks
pOmPaNoPiMp: bets 5600
forboon: raises 31287 to 36887 and is all-in
pOmPaNoPiMp: calls 31287
*** TURN *** [Jc Td 8c] [2d]
*** RIVER *** [Jc Td 8c 2d] [Ac]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
forboon: shows [Qh Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
pOmPaNoPiMp: shows [Ks Qd] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
pOmPaNoPiMp collected 84974 from pot
forboon finished the tournament in 58th place and received $113.44.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 84974 | Rake 0
Board [Jc Td 8c 2d Ac]
Seat 1: pOmPaNoPiMp showed [Ks Qd] and won (84974) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 2: zé iran (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: B-MoreOriole (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: forboon (big blind) showed [Qh Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: ROYM2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: KnuSkool folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Kleaner folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Maltlicky folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Comments
After seeing results: looks fine but I prefer making it ~12k and calling a shove. This hand's super standard though, the money's just gonna get in anyways, both played it fine.
ya, no reads, only higher stake people have 'reads', i just watch tv and mash buttons
its just a weird thought because if i peel of a non broadway, non club card i cut his drawing % in half (mind you theres a little more in the pot) vs any flush, straight, or overpair draw.
in this hand, im sure the money woulda went in on the turn, but i think its a bigger mistake for him if it goes in on the turn.....
Is actually a very common Limit hold 'em strategy for obvious reasons (bigger turn bet, bigger mistake re: odds). But in NLHE, it's different.
In this case, how do you know you're ahead?
Mark
in this case I don't know im ahead, but vs his range where hes ahead, calling and jamming the turn won't change but vs the part of his range where hes drawing his mistake is bigger if he sees a turn card thats bricks him. I have to add in the pot odds from the flop bet/call but i think it makes it a slighter mistake for him.....
i hope you understand to comment (i might not have explained well)
Bigger mistakes = bigger profit. So I like the theory behind your thinkings...
Though I think it's more applicable when you're clearly ahead, two pair vs. draw for example (in a set situation I'd rather get it all in ahead on a flop and hope to re-suck if he hits).
Stack sizes are also important, ideally you want all his chips (or yours) in ahead and making the biggest mistake... so, I'll watch this thread.
Mark
but this is a question vs. his range.
vs the parts of his range im behind, i will likely lose either way, but we'd prefer to lose all our chips on the flop to have two cards to draw to....
but since his range is quite wide and likely has more drawing hands than made hands (i think im ahead more often than not ***btw this was my read can't remember why*****).....then if we peel a turn we can create a bigger mistake from the villain with a large majority of his range.
the two kickers though are if we have fold equity on the flop jam, and if we can make some folds if villains hits on the turn.
and he does have a little bit better pot odds if i call flop and jam the turn, but i don't think it matches as good vs his drawing equity that gets cut in half most of the time.
i don't thinks so, if im suited then likely. but guys tend to call with all their pairs here, and most big aces that they open pre. here im getting a decent price to call, and i think i can outplay his range depending on some flops....
in other words i think he will call with most of his preflop opening range but will fold alot of that to aggression on boards that hit my drawing range (hands like medium pps)
i might be off here though.
Reshoving pre is fine as well as you have a nice resteal stack but that all depends on how active pomp has been. For some reason I like the QJs reshove a lot more as well.
Obv stats on villian would make this decision more clear, but you were button mashing while smokin a bong.... I mean .... watchin tv.... :wink2:
I am so guilty of this too.... :-[
yes but the play im asking about is calling the flop bet and shipping a bricking turn.
i pomp doesn't fold any of his range i don't think its +ev, if we're suited i think its close but perhaps not even.....not if he never folds....this was my read on him but its debatable....
thats because it does 3% better vs his entire range....
yes his range is fairly wide, at+, a9s, kts+, kqo, all pairs kinda thing, maybe a few more....none of which i beat pre......but all those medium pairs can't stand much pressure vs a flop......
naw when hes likely to call alot (but even fold some), im going to use every hand that matches his range....mathematically that is....qjo off certainly doesn't qjs comes close i think
def read dependent.....and it would be nicer to be deeper for sure...
I think the board is drawy enough that we make him make mistakes often enough with out hand. He can get it in with a ton worses Jx, some worse Ts, combo draw type stuff that doesn't do as amazing vs. our exact holding, etc.
We can't really play any different given his actual holding b/c we're not playing vs. only that holding, we're playing vs. his range (like I think you said). By virtue of us determining that we have a value hand vs. his range, getting it in on the flop will make him make a mistake. If we have a bluffing/semi-bluffing hand, then there could be different lines that help us eek out a little more fold equity and thus a little more EV.
much appreciated...i will look for this spot again sometime....