Odd odds

micr0be

Was watching repeat of last years Aruba WPT event last night and they showed an interesting stat.

Can't remember exactly but basically it was as follows

Which is favourite

JC 9C vs AD 7H

after a flop of

KC 10S 7D

...

so j9 is actually the favourite...at first glance I wouldnt suspect this.

ScottyZ

pokenum -h jc 9c - ad 7h -- kc ts 7d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts Kc 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc 9c 509 51.41 481 48.59 0 0.00 0.514
Ad 7h 481 48.59 509 51.41 0 0.00 0.486

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=259149

Yes, the J9s has outs (any J, 9, Q) plus backdoor outs, and your opponent's re-draw potential is quite limited. It's vital that you have overcards to your opponent's made pair here... chasing the gutshot & backdoor flush alone is a draw best left to the amateurs. (Or to the professionals who are risk-neutral at the time and getting at least 2-1 pot odds.) 8)

pokenum -h jc 9c - ks 2h -- kc ts 7d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts Kc 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc 9c 367 37.07 623 62.93 0 0.00 0.371
Ks 2h 623 62.93 367 37.07 0 0.00 0.629

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=259164

micr0be

well its effectively an outside str8 (dont forget the 8) and backdoor flush with overcards.

ScottyZ

Oh that's right... it's a good ol' double belly buster!! The 8 is good too, so that's 14 outs + backdoor outs.

ScottyZ