JJ Line Check

Wetts1012Wetts1012
in MTT Strategy
His call on that flop makes the alarms go off and the riv bet screams value, but can anyone fold in this spot?

In hindsight I think this line is 78 and sets almost always.

PokerStars Game #52678212362: Tournament #329047270, $30+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (20/40) - 2010/11/14 9:42:02 ET
Table '329047270 33' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: St3phenHendr (6615 in chips)
Seat 2: $tevieKillaH (2940 in chips)
Seat 3: flaska29 (5965 in chips)
Seat 4: micado74 (4180 in chips)
Seat 5: Kingcoza (3180 in chips)
Seat 6: E.Chantre (3960 in chips)
Seat 7: Coco_tko@mp3 (2315 in chips)
Seat 8: TonyBlairPM (2440 in chips)
Seat 9: Wetts1012 (3390 in chips)
micado74: posts small blind 20
Kingcoza: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Wetts1012 [Js Jd]
E.Chantre: folds
Coco_tko@mp3: folds
TonyBlairPM: folds
Wetts1012: raises 80 to 120
St3phenHendr: calls 120
$tevieKillaH: calls 120
flaska29: folds
micado74: folds
Kingcoza: folds
*** FLOP *** [4d 5c 6s]
Wetts1012: bets 230
St3phenHendr: calls 230
$tevieKillaH: folds
*** TURN *** [4d 5c 6s] [2d]
Wetts1012: checks
St3phenHendr: bets 360
Wetts1012: calls 360
*** RIVER *** [4d 5c 6s 2d] [9s]
Wetts1012: checks
St3phenHendr: bets 640
Wetts1012: calls 640
*** SHOW DOWN ***
St3phenHendr: shows [6d 6h] (three of a kind, Sixes)
Wetts1012: mucks hand
St3phenHendr collected 2880 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2880 | Rake 0
Board [4d 5c 6s 2d 9s]
Seat 1: St3phenHendr showed [6d 6h] and won (2880) with three of a kind, Sixes
Seat 2: $tevieKillaH folded on the Flop
Seat 3: flaska29 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: micado74 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Kingcoza (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: E.Chantre folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Coco_tko@mp3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: TonyBlairPM folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Wetts1012 mucked [Js Jd]

Comments

  • HobbesHobbes
    Maybe I'm too much of a nit, but I c/f the turn.
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    Depends on how the opponent is, I am like you and the alarm goes off on the flop call, I can't see (myself) folding on the river most of the times unless he was really nitty.(aka low aggression factor).
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    philliivey wrote: »
    Depends on how the opponent is, I am like you and the alarm goes off on the flop call, I can't see (myself) folding on the river most of the times unless he was really nitty.(aka low aggression factor).

    Just because ur a nit doesnt mean you have a low aggression factor.
  • MiloMilo
    Thats it, Wetts, right back in the saddle.
  • djgolfcandjgolfcan
    It's a cooler to be sure. Don't know how we get away from the hand though. Too many times villain thinks we have overcards to the board and will bet his draws as a semi bluff thinking we have Ace high.

    After you call his turn bet, he knows you have something and the river definitely smells like a value bet. I may fold the river but it would be difficult.
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    Just because ur a nit doesnt mean you have a low aggression factor.


    Correct, I was not talking regular "nit".:)
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    philliivey wrote: »
    Correct, I was not talking regular "nit".:)

    ok....
  • UnknownUnknown
    i'd use a defensive bet on the river....



    edit:didn't read the pot right.... im not betting into that, i agree with check calling a smallish river bet but folding to anything substantial.

    edit 2 : meh im actually wondering how many medicore hands we beat villain bet and not just check unless hes awful...only really ahead of TT and bluffs....
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    ok....


    Maybe I came up with a new term, post flop nit?:laugh:.

    But anywhoo I should of said calling station,lol.
  • jdAA88jdAA88
    Mehhh, I pretty much only fold here if I'm using a HUD and have a decent sample that indicates that villain isnt your standard braindead tourney donk, btw this is a $33 freezeout right?
  • BlondeFishBlondeFish
    On the turn, I only need 23% equity (call 360 to win 1600) to see the river, so it's an easy call for me given the range I give the villain, which includes 77, 88, 99, TT or a bluff.

    On the river, I again only need 23% probability that I have the best hand to make a call +cEV (call 640 to win 2,880). While {33-66, 99, QQ-AA, 87; 65-32} have me beat, I believe in Harrington's Law of Bluffing so there is more than 22% chance that I am good against most opponents so I would make the crying call, ready to see the villain's set or nuts. However, it seems that at least 50% of the time, villain has garbage or a worse hand than mine, so I gain a lot of $EV from making calls with good odds. There are a few opponents who I have notes, HUD stats or read where I would fold on the river (or fold KK given the high probability that I put that opponent on AA).
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    jdAA88 wrote: »
    Mehhh, I pretty much only fold here if I'm using a HUD and have a decent sample that indicates that villain isnt your standard braindead tourney donk, btw this is a $33 freezeout right?

    yea. if this is the rebizzles Im probably getting it in here.
  • HVEEPOKERHVEEPOKER
    I know sometimes it is Difficult to lay this down especially if you are an aggresive player. I would have called the Turn as you did. His 640 bet after the river tells me he has probably hit is straight and I don't want to give him anymore chips. I am pretty sure I fold here. if he had raised 300 or less I probably would end up paying him off. Just to see what he had.
  • syphilaidssyphilaids
    BlondeFish wrote: »
    On the turn, I only need 23% equity (call 360 to win 1600) to see the river, so it's an easy call for me given the range I give the villain, which includes 77, 88, 99, TT or a bluff.

    On the river, I again only need 23% probability that I have the best hand to make a call +cEV (call 640 to win 2,880). While {33-66, 99, QQ-AA, 87; 65-32} have me beat, I believe in Harrington's Law of Bluffing so there is more than 22% chance that I am good against most opponents so I would make the crying call, ready to see the villain's set or nuts. However, it seems that at least 50% of the time, villain has garbage or a worse hand than mine, so I gain a lot of $EV from making calls with good odds. There are a few opponents who I have notes, HUD stats or read where I would fold on the river (or fold KK given the high probability that I put that opponent on AA).

    FTW.

    Folks, this is how you respond to posts. I love the solid stats you bring out blonde fish. TY.

    after you c/c turn, check river, and he makes a tiny value bet given the pot, you gotta call. I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up with 5-7 or 67.

    IMO people fear sets too often. Indeed it's in his range and quite possible here, its not his only hand. Also if he's going to value town you to win the minimum, I don't have trouble paying him off when I have a decent chance of winning.
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