AQ spot late
Deep in a 5k guarantee, blinds 2k/4k. 16 left, money was at about 30..
Villain has been table captain, and big stack the whole time I have been here..1/2 hour or so with him.. playing about 35/20..he has a good record in MTTs
I have 3 bet him about 5 times and he has folded every time..My image is decent..22/18, shown only winners/good hands.
Holdem $4,000(BB)
f ($168,033)
villain ($250,551)
Hero ($150,049)
a ($95,340)
b ($87,500)
c($86,588)
d ($97,983)
e ($175,198)
f posts (SB) $2,000
villain posts (BB) $4,000
Dealt to Hero As Qs
Hero raises to $11,500
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
villain raises to $27,500
hero raises to $59,500
villain raises to $183,700
??
Villain has been table captain, and big stack the whole time I have been here..1/2 hour or so with him.. playing about 35/20..he has a good record in MTTs
I have 3 bet him about 5 times and he has folded every time..My image is decent..22/18, shown only winners/good hands.
Holdem $4,000(BB)
f ($168,033)
villain ($250,551)
Hero ($150,049)
a ($95,340)
b ($87,500)
c($86,588)
d ($97,983)
e ($175,198)
f posts (SB) $2,000
villain posts (BB) $4,000
Dealt to Hero As Qs
Hero raises to $11,500
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold,
villain raises to $27,500
hero raises to $59,500
villain raises to $183,700
??
Comments
ok but 'he' 3 bet 'you' here.....that's different than him playing back to your 3 bet (4 betting)......and i know im not the authority here either but nice to open discuss.
I have this issue all the time after picking on people and they play back at me, sometimes i can't lay down because too many times they're just taking a stand with any two.
I think if you add some lower aces and weird hands your still quite behind pre when he makes that last bet, but at that point i still think you could call.
edit: actually if you can put aj in his range and or and un paired non aces then your happy to get it in....so thats your read...
Also, you're pretty much screwed against the 5 bet ^^' From villains perspective you've made a big open for no apparent reason and 4 bet him. I can't see him getting out of line here much given the price his shove will lay you on a call.
Next time, if you're not 100% sure you want to get it in vs a 5 bet, don't 4bet. I'd flat here a bunch I think and try to get value from AJ type hands or random K9, 1010 wtv hands. Planning to 4 bet fold is bad but as played I don't know if we can justify calling, I'll leave that judgement up to someone else
As is...I am getting 2:1 on my money..about 180k in pot, with just over 90k effective left.. With my aggression against him, I feel like he can do this with 77+, AJ+..which puts me at 55/45 dog...
Should I be much tighter with my ranges here? If I tighten him up to 77+, AK....then we are still a 3:2 dog, which justifies a call? As a solid player that he seems to be, should he be laying down the racing pairs if I have the type of hand that I do? He has chip lead, and seems to be comfortable playing at our short table..
These are spots I have trouble with, as I don't know if I give people too much credit, or not enough...
1) 5 betting just doesnt happen light very often. I mean only the very best are capable of 5 betting light (by light I mean like air up to 77-99, less than AJ). In this case Im always assuming a 5bet has it. Its just not a weapon most people have. Further - villain is OOP. Further-further, youve demonstrated that you usually have the goods. Dont see a reason for him to spew here.
That said Im with Richard. I flat the 3 bet and play a toppish hand in position. You can probably even peel a flop bet for less than the cost of a preflop 4bet.
2) If youre sure youre never folding to this particular villain for whatever read reason, you should be shoving ur 4bet.
3) As played, given all the info you have I think you have to fold. Your assigned range after the 5bet needs to tighten up imo, more like JJ+,AK (maybe tt). Doubt you see like AJ, KQ, 77 in this spot too often. I mean youre really deep here. You can still fold and have like 25bigs.
Really?
I don't get how we can dump over a third of our stack here then fold, really...
Although I do agree with the flatting the 3bet pre, I don't see how after we 4bet here we can fold.
We are getting >2:1 odds on our all-in. Even if we put him on exactly AK, QQ, or KK, We MAY have slightly worse or even money odds to call (we win ~30%)
The only thing we hate to see here is AA.
Realistically, we can put villian on TT+ (maybe 99 depending on aggression), MAYBE AJs+ but def AQ+
I just don't see the fold equity we have here. Does it have to do with the fact we are in the money, and the longer we can stay alive the more money we get? Is it more profitable to fold our way to the top then to ship and pray?