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Would you have laid this down?
swept clean by them ninja trunk monkeys
Comments
no 1463.64%
I think it's a little different in the sense that you need to take into account the chances of your opponent having the drawing hand in question *prior* to the draw getting there.
It's difficult to put the opponent on the nut hand in this case, since (IIRC) the draw is to the backdoor gutshot straight flush (wasn't there a paired board too? Darn trunk monkeys...). True that a lot of LLNL players will chase that weak a draw, but it's more likely still that some LLNL player will chase a (backdoor or true) A-high flush draw versus your K-high flush draw thinking that pairing the Ace might be good too.
However, given that a huge majority of the action took place on the river in this particular hand, I'll buy the "I should fold the 2nd nuts" angle too.
ScottyZ