Serious online grinders -- prop bet opinions?
Prop bet: 5000 180 mans in October, 2010 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance
Thinking of betting $300-$1k on this -- thoughts as to whether this volume is doable?
Thinking of betting $300-$1k on this -- thoughts as to whether this volume is doable?
Comments
Haven't looked at his stats on Sharkscope but I don't like the fact that he isn't offering odds
Here's what I would do. Go to PokerStars and look at the "completed" 180 man tournaments there are in a day at a particular buy in amount. Then extrapolate that number of a month and see how many games are played.
You can multi table these very easily and a new one starts every 10 minutes or so.
Doubt it!
Proof or gtfo. lol Sorry I just find that pretty hard to believe. If this was the case, I think most from 2+2 would be all over him in the thread telling him that it is an easy prop. No?
But yeah, this guy clearly has no life... averaging like 167 games per day for a month is crazyness!
Dam was thinking 1k/week when I typed (I hate the small screens)
If you look up frenzuh on SS for march 2010 he did just over 3k (12-18 tabling). So ya 5k in a month is doable but not sustainable by any stretch.
Didn't that guy on Ps (I forget his name now) come close to this?
wth was his name? Turned like $1 into $10k
Was that Boku or something like that?
Don't think he was playing 180 man's......
Looking at the $2 180s on stars right now, there's 32 that have started in the last hour, and 54 running total. This doesn't include the 3r turbo's which another 2 dozen are running. In a volume prop bet like this it's made heaps easier if the game you're playing runs a ton like these do. It's basically a matter of whether he can put in the time, because it's 100% possible to play 167 games in a day at these stakes, it's doing it 30 days in a row that matters. Also anyone remotely capable will have a positive ROI in these after 5k games, even 30 tabling.
Yea Boku does play 180s but iirc he was playing mostly 45s/18s for his prop/challenge.
I dont understand how people play 25 games at a time like that and still play well. How do you have enough time to decide if its a push/fold even before the next one is calling your name? Do you run a HUD while 25 tabling? God this would make my head spin...
Well you're not playing your best w/ 25 tables, you're playing good enough to justify it. Essentially to justify playing 24 tables instead of 6, all that needs to happen is your roi needs to be >25% of what it is 6-tabling (if you have 100% roi 6-tabling, you make the same amount hourly as 25% roi 24-tabling). Generally your roi doesn't drop that much assuming that you have your game really tight and most stuff is automatic already.
Using a HUD and table ninja makes it wayyy easier too. I think my roi probably doesn't drop at all from 4-tables to 10-12 or so with a hud. If I was playing only 1 site and could use table ninja maybe I'd be able to 16-18 table with my roi being the same as 4. The higher stakes you're playing, the more your roi is likely to drop when adding more tables as well, since at $10 games the decisions you get into aren't nearly as hard on average as the ones playing $150+ games. Basically, it's not as hard as people think. Those playing 4-6 tables with no hud or extra software could easily playing 3x that with a hud + other software.
I thought it may be a good bet as every volume bet I've ever seen on 2p2 the player quits 1/2 way through -- however, maybe this isn't a good spot.
It's now 6k games and min 1k profit at 1:1 -- thoughts?
1k profit is less than 2% ROI based on his average buy in ($10) so that is prob a lock.
He could prob achieve this if he plays his normal game and builds up a profit and then just goes nuts once he figures the profit is a lock.
6k 180s is a lot of volume.
Most volume prop bets seem to go like this:
Fossilkid93 10k $52-$108 DoN SNG + Profit in September Rail Thread - Poker Beats Brags and Variance
Anyone else have any thoughts?
This bet is way different in the sense that the the ceiling roi for DoNs is very low, and he's playing (I think) the highest stakes DoNs on Stars, correct?
In 180s the ceiling roi is like >100% probably, and he's playing the lowest levels.
The new terms make it a bit more interesting, though. I'd have to think about it.
His ABI is gonna be much less than $10, he's playing $2 180s and 3r 180s only.
He's only playing the $2s now.
Why did I not have this sooner!?
I was 6 tabling the $2 -180man turbo's and waiting around for action... WOW! Might move up to 8 tabling soon! Makes the world of difference having all bet sizes set up already, and one button for actions. And on top of 6 tabling, my ROI was like 139% over 66 games! Small sample size, but meh...
So I guess my conclusion on this prop bet is that the profit is nothing in comparison to the volume aspect of the bet. Since it seems he plays a lot of volume, I wouldn't bet against him either.
***Official 6k $2.20 180s in October, 2010: $1000 profit*** - Page 84 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance
(warning there is a lot of the same crap to read over and over)
CLIFFS
- OP was crushing the bet 2/3rds through the month
- OP was playing cash sessions after his daily grind, partying some nights, late starts in the morning, etc as if it was a lock
- Judge finds out new information about OP that he had previous accounts that were not necessarily HIDDEN from 2+2ers (cus it was in another thread), but not spelled out in the bet thread. I think OP has 4 accounts total. None of the aforementioned accounts had serious volume and some were breakeven/loser accounts. He was underage when he played on them which is why he didnt disclose fully.
-Judge tells OP to STOP THE BET FOR 48 HRS, while a decision is made.
-Judge rules that that violates the terms of the bet because that might have swayed original bettor's opinions of OP.
- Judge tells all bettors that they have the option of pulling out of the bet or continuing. OP will take the 48 HRS as a penalty, and will try to continue the bet with the same end time and same volume.
- 2+2 goes nuts with people saying Judge is a D-bag basically.
I think profit was around 1800 last I saw. He will be like 500 games behind pace when he starts again today.
what a clusterfcuk!
10,000 45 man turbos in 25 days! - Poker Beats Brags and Variance
400 45 man turbos / day
~14-16 hrs / day of play
max 35 tables at a time.
I've seen him play 20+ at one time.
I play against him on quite a few tables everynight. He is usually between 20-30 at a time.
What is the advantage of using HUD and table ninja? I've tried using HUD but it's almost too much information?? What does table Ninja do?