$28 mtt brainfart spot with 31 remaining

jdAA88

Just burst the money bubble, both villains are playing pretty standard i.e. neither has gotten out of line yet over at least 50 hands.

I have a pretty decent stack and am very happy/comfortable playing this stacksize with only 31 left.

Thoughts were, if I fold I have a decent stack to work with, but also myhand is pretty huge and if I win the pot, I have a 100bb+ stack with 31 remaining.

So, call or fold?
Also, is my flop cbet too big?

Stage #318172677 Tourney ID 5676980 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 1,000 - 2010-08-15 00:30:42 (ET)
Table: 9 (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 1 - NOTANYGD760 (10,379 in chips)
Seat 2 - JRCOMPS (11,936 in chips)
Seat 3 - APACHELARK (10,508 in chips)
Seat 4 - 3V0LV3 (53,364 in chips)
Seat 5 - RO44 (41,242 in chips)
Seat 6 - NEWATHIS (6,000 in chips)
Seat 7 - MRSOLODOLO17 (52,112 in chips)
Seat 8 - LEVDOG3 (18,080 in chips)
Seat 9 - HERO (28,258 in chips)
NOTANYGD760 - Ante 100
JRCOMPS - Ante 100
APACHELARK - Ante 100
3V0LV3 - Ante 100
RO44 - Ante 100
NEWATHIS - Ante 100
MRSOLODOLO17 - Ante 100
LEVDOG3 - Ante 100
HERO - Ante 100
NEWATHIS - Posts small blind 500
MRSOLODOLO17 - Posts big blind 1,000
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO :10d :ad
LEVDOG3 - Folds
HERO - Raises 2,444 to 2,444
NOTANYGD760 - Folds
JRCOMPS - Folds
APACHELARK - Folds
3V0LV3 - Calls 2,444
RO44 - Calls 2,444
NEWATHIS - Folds
MRSOLODOLO17 - Folds
*** FLOP *** :7c :8d :2d
HERO - Bets 5,000
3V0LV3 - All-In(Raise) 50,820 to 50,820
RO44 - All-In 38,698
HERO - ??

I have 20K left btw.

Richard~

well, 20k to win 90k so like 22%. The guy shoving probably doesn't have a set. The guy calling might have a set. Therefore I did this and from the looks of it I probably call, feel free to tweak my ranges (and yeah I know your hand had diamonds and not hearts)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

423,507 games 0.031 secs 13,661,516 games/sec

Board: 8h 7s 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.462% 33.06% 00.40% 140014 1701.00 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 12.058% 11.65% 00.41% 49327 1741.50 { JJ-TT, A8s, KhQh, T9s, A8o, T9o }
Hand 2: 54.479% 54.47% 00.01% 230683 40.50 { KK, 88-77, 33, Jh9h }

compuease

I don't even have to look at pokerstove to know the answer to this one. I am getting it in, chance to triple up.. Go for it. This is one of those points in a tournament where it's make or break time... Maybe it's a leak of mine maybe not.. A couple of years ago when I know I would have folded this, I was just too conservative, ie drum tight... Now for sure I take these shots. It's win or bust, no more little paydays for me...:) Well maybe no more paydays at all..

HVEEPOKER

compuease wrote: »

I don't even have to look at pokerstove to know the answer to this one. I am getting it in, chance to triple up.. Go for it. This is one of those points in a tournament where it's make or break time... Maybe it's a leak of mine maybe not.. A couple of years ago when I know I would have folded this, I was just too conservative, ie drum tight... Now for sure I take these shots. It's win or bust, no more little paydays for me...:) Well maybe no more paydays at all..

Even after all the crap I see happen, Don't be gun shy. I agree with jeff.
Shove. 2 cards to come . R044 may have 2 diamonds with K and 3Volv3 I would say maybe 9-10 os or even trip 8's

JohnnieH

compuease wrote: »

I don't even have to look at pokerstove to know the answer to this one. I am getting it in, chance to triple up.. Go for it. This is one of those points in a tournament where it's make or break time... Maybe it's a leak of mine maybe not.. A couple of years ago when I know I would have folded this, I was just too conservative, ie drum tight... Now for sure I take these shots. It's win or bust, no more little paydays for me...:) Well maybe no more paydays at all..

Totally agree. You are already ITM so if you lose the hand, move on. You win the hand, you are going deep into the money.

Wetts1012

HVEEPOKER wrote: »

R044 may have 2 diamonds with K and 3Volv3 I would say maybe 9-10 os or even trip 8's

LOL ranges. Anyway, given the action you have to call I think, but I dont like it.

HVEEPOKER

Wetts1012 wrote: »

LOL ranges. Anyway, given the action you have to call I think, but I dont like it.

I know I have a wild wide range but.... My engrish still not so ggoooooddd...

Unknown

Richard~ wrote: »

A) well, 20k to win 90k so like 22%.


Hand 0: 33.462% 33.06% 00.40% 140014 1701.00 { AhTh }

is that how it is? if b is greater than a we're likely calling then? i think 33 percent is what i got about by butting in the best situations and then the worst-ish. we actually might be in quite good shape here considering its a triple up.

i think i would laid this down on the fly though. flop bet seems correct somewhere between 1/2 to 3/4 pot

Richard~

just did the ranges real quick when putting this in to the calculator, I'm not gonna defend them much if someone hates them.

I really like the cbet though since we probably don't really want lots of action, but I think with a bet this size we should be planning on cbetcalling, even if it's fairly close

Richard~

darbday wrote: »

is that how it is? if b is greater than a we're likely calling then?

'

yup

jdAA88

Richard~ wrote: »

just did the ranges real quick when putting this in to the calculator, I'm not gonna defend them much if someone hates them.

I really like the cbet though since we probably don't really want lots of action, but I think with a bet this size we should be planning on cbetcalling, even if it's fairly close

yeah good point, I thought about this too.

Unknown

Richard~ wrote: »

'

yup

its that easy ....hyuh?

actyper

I think your cbet should be whatever to induce a raise or shove. It worked, but when the 2nd guy called it became fml call.

Unknown

actyper wrote: »

I think your cbet should be whatever to induce a raise or shove. It worked, but when the 2nd guy called it became fml call.

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