Flop check shove (semi)bluff

Richard~

This is an interesting one, villain is better 65% of the flops over 140 hands (obviously he hasn't seen 140 flops, but ok sample size) and his fold to cbet% is like 30%. Do we like this line as an adjustment or is it too high risk even given the reward?

(we're maybe 10 away from the money in a 200 player tourney)

Full Tilt Poker Game #22975925735: $10 + $1 Knockout (177309553), Table 5 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 09:30:08 ET - 2010/08/10
Seat 1: llobet4 (33,519)
Seat 2: ACHILLE6 (5,785)
Seat 3: n0ideahh (7,855)
Seat 4: SantyaGO72 (11,009)
Seat 5: sirsuhr (11,591)
Seat 6: FenixNegro (10,040)
Seat 7: hardy6960062 (5,205)
Seat 8: wonderlands (15,193)
Seat 9: llRichardll (11,580)
llobet4 antes 50
ACHILLE6 antes 50
n0ideahh antes 50
SantyaGO72 antes 50
sirsuhr antes 50
FenixNegro antes 50
hardy6960062 antes 50
wonderlands antes 50
llRichardll antes 50
sirsuhr posts the small blind of 200
FenixNegro posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to llRichardll [:jc :ac]
hardy6960062 folds
wonderlands folds
llRichardll raises to 1,000
llobet4 folds
ACHILLE6 folds
n0ideahh folds
SantyaGO72 calls 1,000
sirsuhr folds
FenixNegro folds
*** FLOP *** [:8d :kc :qd]
llRichardll checks
SantyaGO72 bets 2,000
llRichardll raises to 10,000
SantyaGO72 has 15 seconds left to act
SantyaGO72 folds
Uncalled bet of 8,000 returned to llRichardll
llRichardll mucks
llRichardll wins the pot (7,050)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7,050 | Rake 0
Board: [8d Kc Qd]
Seat 1: llobet4 folded before the Flop
Seat 2: ACHILLE6 folded before the Flop
Seat 3: n0ideahh folded before the Flop
Seat 4: SantyaGO72 (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: sirsuhr (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: FenixNegro (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: hardy6960062 folded before the Flop
Seat 8: wonderlands folded before the Flop
Seat 9: llRichardll collected (7,050), mucked

Richard~

fml bust, guess nothing matters if they can do this 5 hands later anyway. This run is really really getting to me. I mean how the hell can they have such a high hit frequency in key spots

Edit: i wasn't actually bust, lost k5 v aj hand after and then I lost kk v ak v QQ a couple of hands later to actually bust, tilt (20 without as much as a mincash now)

Full Tilt Poker Game #22976004278: $10 + $1 Knockout (177309553), Table 5 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 09:35:40 ET - 2010/08/10
Seat 2: ACHILLE6 (5,635)
Seat 3: n0ideahh (6,705)
Seat 4: SantyaGO72 (7,059)
Seat 5: sirsuhr (10,241)
Seat 6: FenixNegro (9,690)
Seat 7: hardy6960062 (10,860)
Seat 8: wonderlands (17,493)
Seat 9: llRichardll (16,480)
ACHILLE6 antes 50
n0ideahh antes 50
SantyaGO72 antes 50
sirsuhr antes 50
FenixNegro antes 50
hardy6960062 antes 50
wonderlands antes 50
llRichardll antes 50
wonderlands posts the small blind of 200
llRichardll posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to llRichardll [:qs :qh]
ACHILLE6 folds
n0ideahh folds
SantyaGO72 folds
sirsuhr folds
FenixNegro raises to 9,640, and is all in
hardy6960062 folds
wonderlands folds
llRichardll calls 9,240
FenixNegro shows [:7s :7h]
llRichardll shows [:qs :qh]
*** FLOP *** [:ah :8c :7d]
*** TURN *** [:ah :8c :7d] [:3d]
*** RIVER *** [:ah :8c :7d :3d] [:9c]
FenixNegro shows three of a kind, Sevens
llRichardll shows a pair of Queens
FenixNegro wins the pot (19,880) with three of a kind, Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 19,880 | Rake 0
Board: [Ah 8c 7d 3d 9c]
Seat 2: ACHILLE6 folded before the Flop
Seat 3: n0ideahh folded before the Flop
Seat 4: SantyaGO72 folded before the Flop
Seat 5: sirsuhr folded before the Flop
Seat 6: FenixNegro showed [7s 7h] and won (19,880) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 7: hardy6960062 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: wonderlands (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: llRichardll (big blind) showed [Qs Qh] and lost with a pair of Queens

jdAA88

What are some other stats on villain, and are you saying his cbet % over 140 hands is 65%? If so, that doesn't really classify him as a cbet monkey.
If I made this play, I'd probably make it on a drier flop (no FD).

Richard~

I don't know really, cbet to me means continuing when you're the pf aggressor and that's a different scenario than this. Think he was somewhere between 80 and 100 for that. by dryer flop do you mean that it's too easy for him to put us on a fd and call with a queen? Cause if he calls us with a FD that's really not the end of the world is it?

jdAA88

Yeah exactly, reduces FE

Richard~

So you prefer check folding or bet folding in this spot even though he might spazz out?

(probably check fold with that board texture)