what do you guys think?
Over 81 hands villian was vp17/pr10/afq58.... My personal opinion was that he was playing pretty loose the past few orbits though, so maybe he was changing gears?
PokerStars Game #47666876741: Tournament #324010372, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (1500/3000) - 2010/08/03 16:28:27 ET
Table '324010372 109' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Rickynator01 (184269 in chips)
Seat 2: junski77 (87669 in chips)
Seat 3: Yura Kolosov (56450 in chips)
Seat 4: voloman (171798 in chips)
Seat 5: Tft_Elf (85424 in chips)
Seat 6: REEBS77 (92375 in chips)
Seat 7: evro555513 (221787 in chips)
Seat 9: EPRST1 (118746 in chips)
Rickynator01: posts the ante 375
junski77: posts the ante 375
Yura Kolosov: posts the ante 375
voloman: posts the ante 375
Tft_Elf: posts the ante 375
REEBS77: posts the ante 375
evro555513: posts the ante 375
EPRST1: posts the ante 375
EPRST1: posts small blind 1500
Rickynator01: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to REEBS77 [As 8h]
junski77: folds
Yura Kolosov: folds
voloman: folds
Tft_Elf: folds
REEBS77: raises 3999 to 6999
evro555513: folds
EPRST1: folds
Rickynator01: calls 3999
*** FLOP *** [3s Kc 4d]
Rickynator01: checks
REEBS77: checks .... Pretty sure I was ahead and he hit none of this. Also believed that he would have fired at most turns...should I have C bet? I def did not want to get check-raised.
*** TURN *** [3s Kc 4d] [Kd]
Rickynator01: checks .... Okay this guy has absolutely nothing, or a draw...could he have slowplayed KQ/KJ/K10? maybe... but I don't think this guy would have checked the flop to me there with those hands...
Aristeo C Jr is connected
REEBS77: bets 9999
Rickynator01: calls 9999
*** RIVER *** [3s Kc 4d Kd] [9d]
Rickynator01: bets 30000
REEBS77: ???? shit, worst river ever.... agree here that he likely has none of this, or the flush? How often do you think I am good here?
PokerStars Game #47666876741: Tournament #324010372, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIV (1500/3000) - 2010/08/03 16:28:27 ET
Table '324010372 109' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Rickynator01 (184269 in chips)
Seat 2: junski77 (87669 in chips)
Seat 3: Yura Kolosov (56450 in chips)
Seat 4: voloman (171798 in chips)
Seat 5: Tft_Elf (85424 in chips)
Seat 6: REEBS77 (92375 in chips)
Seat 7: evro555513 (221787 in chips)
Seat 9: EPRST1 (118746 in chips)
Rickynator01: posts the ante 375
junski77: posts the ante 375
Yura Kolosov: posts the ante 375
voloman: posts the ante 375
Tft_Elf: posts the ante 375
REEBS77: posts the ante 375
evro555513: posts the ante 375
EPRST1: posts the ante 375
EPRST1: posts small blind 1500
Rickynator01: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to REEBS77 [As 8h]
junski77: folds
Yura Kolosov: folds
voloman: folds
Tft_Elf: folds
REEBS77: raises 3999 to 6999
evro555513: folds
EPRST1: folds
Rickynator01: calls 3999
*** FLOP *** [3s Kc 4d]
Rickynator01: checks
REEBS77: checks .... Pretty sure I was ahead and he hit none of this. Also believed that he would have fired at most turns...should I have C bet? I def did not want to get check-raised.
*** TURN *** [3s Kc 4d] [Kd]
Rickynator01: checks .... Okay this guy has absolutely nothing, or a draw...could he have slowplayed KQ/KJ/K10? maybe... but I don't think this guy would have checked the flop to me there with those hands...
Aristeo C Jr is connected
REEBS77: bets 9999
Rickynator01: calls 9999
*** RIVER *** [3s Kc 4d Kd] [9d]
Rickynator01: bets 30000
REEBS77: ???? shit, worst river ever.... agree here that he likely has none of this, or the flush? How often do you think I am good here?
Comments
Yes I did recognize this flop as a great flop for a C bet, which is why I opted to check. Opp being fairly tight aggressive, would have most likely seen this as a steal and tried to resteal from me... Guess I still should have C bet anyways.
The reason I bet the turn was to get some information. If he calls, I figured it really polarizes his range to air with the intentions on bluffing the river, or the flush draw. I think there is a huge part of his check-check range that he folds the turn bet to, that could hit the river without me having a clue. I dunno, this was just my thought process...
cBetting this flop is best, and if he calls you'll want to try to check it down to showdown.
As played on the flop, check behind the turn 100% of the time to keep the pot small. He'll most likely fire on any river, but it will be small enough that you can make a hero call with A-high and be good more often than not.
If he spiked a 6-outer because you gave him a free look, so be it. If he checks the river, check back and expect to win a "small" 17k pot at showdown.
As played, you need to fold the river. Calling with A-high for about 40% of your remaining stack is usually not the way to the final table.
I like your analysis but there is one thing I kinda disagree with. I don't think he'll most likely fire on any river, and if he does ever fire the river, even on a somewhat blank one, I think he has ace-high beat most of the time (unless he bets 1-3bbs and is just a rly bad fish who thinks you will fold a-high, but since you said hes played 17/10 over 80 hands I doubt he's that bad).
No? Checking here with showdown value is absolutely fine. Why on earth would you c-bet AQ or like 55-77 on this type of board? You're folding out all worse hands, and getting calls by all better. Like think of nearly every better hand he could have than A8. 22-TT, AQ-A9, Kx, 3x, 4x, are any of those hands folding to a c-bet? Maaaybe AT or A9, and 22. That's like 3 combo's of hands, and a bunch more that continue (not saying he has a ton of 3x and 4x in his range, but maybe 54s, A3s, A4s). C-betting makes the hand really easy, but I don't think it's optimal by any means, the only reason we should c-bet is if villain is gonna fold a bunch of better hands for some reason.
That said, why on earrrrth are we checking back b/c we have showdown value, then betting like the infinitely best card in the deck for our line on the turn?????? a;fha;fha;gh;gh
There is still 17k in the pot and he has double reibs' stack. He can afford to bet 10-12k to try and steal it, especially since he was in the BB and can rep a pretty wide range.
Any rag river could realistically hit him and cause most A-high hands to fold. That's why we disappoint him and call with A-high (though AQ, AJ would be easier calls).
Maybe I'm just too used to playing with overly aggro Europeans though.
I have a tendacy to try and build a nice stack that gives me some breathing room as I find myself about halfway going into and thru the card dead zone if you understand that.
I am thinking here that villian may be playing either small connectors either suited or off. May have either 3 or 4. He has the stack and it would not hurt to lose 10 or 12 k. 2-3 or 4-5. . Flop is and turn now with 2 kings on board . I would probably fire 2.5 BB 7500 as a decent probe bet.. Eventhough he is a lot deeper in stack than you this may or (May Not) make him think you have a 3rd or even both K's in your hand. If he has anything he is going to re raise or flat call to see the river.
If he checks the river I would get suspicious a little about his hand but may fire another shot. . Maybe 2x bb . I know I am in for about 14K now but if he has nothing he may pay me off to see what I have. If he feels he has me beat he will reraise then chances are I fold with enough chips to continue.
9999 is a little too much after the flop on this hand. IMO
This thread is a mess. hero doesn't have aq or 55. the 100% i think was meant for this situation and hole cards not 100% other hole cards too.
i find it hard to believe calling a turn bet suggests the villain will bluff the river. i don't think your bet gets you any info here.
i think the diamond is not the worst river, i really think its a card that proves you need to lay down, the only hand you can beat is complete nothing and i think its safe to say he has something. i don't think this is a hero moment whatsoever and i really think you need to only call small pots with ace high and very specific situations, you are beat by soooooo many hands here....
however i do think you can check the flop and represent ak on the turn and give the impression that if the villain comes over top you will call all in. in this cause another king comes which doesn't help that play except to check again and try it on the river.
just want to remind you that you don't have a hand here and you didn't make a hand on any street.
Interesting take on things, and I'm happy you pointed this out. I agreed on cbetting this flop just due to the basics I've learned about cbetting: the flop is very dry and its unlikely that he hit it, so most of the time villain will fold and we take down the pot uncontested and prevent him from getting a free turn/and or river that could give him the best hand, when he was behind on the flop.
I definitely see what you're saying about the different combos he can have though....I really need to do some studying on hand combinatorics:-[
I think your trying to complicate this especially in a $3 tourney where just playing solid poker can get you some wins. Can you really expect the BB to just call a cutoff range with AT-AQ, 77+? I think you got to take your chance and assume he missed the flop and will fold to a cbet. Also when you check back there, I'm sure he's going to lead out the turn tons, and theres no way I'd enjoy bet call, bet call turn and river. Giving up control of the hand sucks.
givin the history and stats, this is the wrong time and wrong player to do this to. all he has to do is play back and you calling or re re raising range is ak kq .....maybe aa. he is a solid player and has chosen to defend his blind.
I don't even know what this means.
No, this isn't the range I expect him to call, I expect him to call our flop bet with a lot of that stuff, like any pair and good A-high. His range is obviously really wide, and c-betting here with any 2 cards on this flop will show a profit, it's just that we should play our hand like it's napkins when it's not.
We have a good hand with showdown value. All of our bets should be accomplishing (for the most part), getting worse hands to call, or better to fold, that's basic betting theory, and in this case it's not happening. We can just check it down to river and win most of the time, or lose less when we're behind and he peels our c-bet but would otherwise check it down, and we can always re-evaluate when we hit a pair on the turn/riv or something.
We don't have enough info to think that villain's gonna bluff you off the best hand on the turn a large % of the time, why are we playing scared that he's gonna play perfectly against us when we check back? If we're afraid of this, why aren't we afraid that he'll check-raise bluff us here? If he does lead on the turn, we fold most of the time and take note of it. It's not like this pot is the absolute end of the tournament if we don't win it. Win the tournament, not the pot.
thats good we'll keep it that way.
This is exactly the reason why we're not always c-betting the flop when we have something with showdown value. This is an amaaazing flop to bet if we had 97 suited.
I'm not saying NEVER bet this flop with this type of hand, but I think that checking behind is completely fine, and maybe optimal in this spot. If we have a read that the villain leads turn a ton vs. a missed c-bet, sure we can bet and take away his bluffing equity. But I think it's important to get reads before we adjust to a tendency that might not actually exist, and this is the perfect spot to get a read.
you mean we should NOT right?
Thanks for explaining this in more detail, it's easy to find yourself playing like a robot after a while, and this is def a refresher on cbetting lol.
Yep sorry, should NOT play your hand like napkins when it's not. No doubt, it's really easy in tournaments and probably isn't a huge leak for the most part, especially at lower stakes. But when you start playing cash or higher stakes tournaments where people know how to exploit you for c-betting too much, watch out.
This. I've really learned to adjust my preflop ranges vs regs on betsson to include the fact that villain will be firing one or two barrels of air when I hit (even marginally) as well as some sexy "raise any cbet" lines that add a lot of value to an otherwise marginal call pre vs regulars who think cbetting is fun every time or too frequently
(Also against some of the better regs as longs as you know they cbet ace high, king high and dry flops you can exploit that too pretty nicely as long as you don't draw their attention)
See this is what I was thinking. This is one of the best hands for C betting. But I knew on the flop I was best, by the turn it was just re-inforced. However, I knew the only way he could beat me was to hit his flush or hit a 6 outter. I have been watchin some vids with guys checking down (or check calling down) ace high in position cus they have showdown value, and that is kinda what I was thinking. But once the flush draw hit, and I knew I had the best, I wanted to get a bit of information about his hand. Maybe I should have just stayed the course and checked back? This would have kept the pot small enough that I could hero call a 12k river bet and be fine?!!!
The river made me tank. Can he really runner runner me? lol .... I needed to call 30K to win a pot of nearly 100k (i think if my math works this early).
The real question I wanted to know is (and maybe this is more a question for higher buyins), How often is ace high good here? Good players should recognize my line as weak, and the river as a bluff card. Good players should be firing here. But so should a flush. Can we be good 3/10 times here? in a $3 game? In a $100 game is it different?
And someone mentioned that we dont normally make FTs by calling 1/4th of our stack off with ace high. Well I see it more as, if its a profitable call and we are correct 3/10 times, then I call everytime... no? It shouldnt matter how much of your stack it is. Not to mention that Im def not deep right now. I will soon need some chips to continue this tournament... leaving 70k out there is a no-no...esp with the best hand!
Result of the hand, I tanked for a bit, then in the heat of the moment, I thought that there was a chance this guy was getting sick of me pushin ppl around with these small bets preflop and he took a stand (Remember I noted earlier this guy has been getting restless lately in this game which skews his stats a bit)...I figured that I could have him beat about enough times to make it profitable. (this may be wrong - which is why I posted this). So I called. Like I figured he had 82s and his flush hit...